UK By Elections, Scottish Independence and the end of Roe vs Wade

It’s been a busy few weeks in International Politics both in the UK and also in the USA where things are just permanently crazy. In the UK you had two by-elections at which the Conservatives got spanked again, that put more pressure on Boris Johnson’s leadership to which he said I survived suckers, you can’t challenge me again for a year. In Wakefield Labour won with an 8% swing to them off a 17% swing against the Tories. That if repeated at a general election would deliver Labour office but is not a glowing endorsement of Labour given the reason the previous member resigned and also given Boris Johnson’s unpopularity. The more amazing result was in Tiverton and Honiton where the Liberal Democrats won that seat with a 38%! swing to them. On top of that as if the Boris Johnson didn’t have enough to worry about Scotland First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has named a date for an IndyRef2. While the Scottish Conservative party are not much of a force already in Scotland it would tear a rip out of the Conservatives in England if Boris Johnson and the Tories were the reason for Scotland leaving the United Kingdom. I think right now the result would be close, Boris Johnson is deeply unpopular in Scotland but ultimately I think an Indyref vote would fail. That would then be 2 costly Independence votes in ten years, which would be money that could be spent elsewhere. Now to American Politics and Roe vs Wade which had been leaked by the Supreme Court as being in strife, was officially struck down last week. It is a huge setback for woman’s rights and while Donald Trump is publicly gloating about how awesome he was to set Abortion rights back by a generation privately he would be worried I’m sure as this would be the one issue that could galvanise Democrats voters to back in Joe Biden. The reaction of the Left has been for the most part rightfully angry and swift although those blaming Ruth Bader Ginsburg for the law changes were going a bit too far for mine. Any bounce to Joe Biden’s ratings on this issue has not occurred yet, indeed he is now down to a net rating of -17.2%. On the Republican side it is increasingly looking like a Ron DeSantis vs Donald Trump Republican Battle for that nomination and while I’d favour Trump it’s close and Ron DeSantis is getting a lot of money from Republican donors.

Thanks for reading my blog, stay tuned next week for my summary of the Bragg By-election in South Australia.

Australian Politics – A month into life under Albanese

It’s now been just over a month into the Labor government, and a lot has already happened. The final 2 PP count came out this week and the final winning margin for Labor over the Coalition was 52.1-47.9. That is despite the Labor recording a record low vote, although in the end Labor’s vote was only down 0.8% from 2019. Enough on the election result, Labor have now been governing for a month and there have been a few major themes that have popped up already. The Economy is the first major theme and Labor are a wait and see on that regard. Inflation is heading through the roof and interest rates are starting to rise up at a very quick rate. The Labor Parties response to this is we will bring forward the Budget to later in the year and we will probably put more sweeteners in that budget for cost of living pressures but pain to the hip pocket is coming in the next budget in May as with increasing debt and an increasing interest rates the high debt levels will have to be paid for. Labor’s response to this so far has been to say they will end the rorts and the waste and yikes if that’s all the budget repair Labor have planned its not going to do much. Labor have pressed the minimum wage argument and have given minimum wage earners a 5.3% pay increase in line with inflation, that’s ok but it does open Labor up to the argument from the left that if inflation goes to 7% should minimum wages also increase by 7%. I don’t think Labor would argue that but if they are saying minimum wage earners should keep up with inflation for their pay then you could argue that minimum wage earners pay should keep going up. Never mind that increasing the pay of workers will push the price of things up and put extra pressure on inflation but it’s the symbolism as much as anything. The next pressure point for Labor is the woman’s pay gap which Labor put on their high priority list for sorting out. I think again it will be a case of picking winners in certain job markets that are female dominant which will help them out but will a; put inflation pressure on the economy and b; leave other industries saying what about us. For example a lot has been said about rising the wages of front line workers who have done so much during the pandemic, and my argument to that is who do you classify as front line, if its only aged care workers and retail and medical staff what about teachers, what about disability care workers, its a dangerous game to start picking winners because you inherently create losers. Energy is the next big issue and that’s reared its ugly head in the last few weeks as private energy companies have tried to price gouge (shock and horror in a market economy) it has led to AEMO taking over the market and setting their own prices. There was a worry that this would lead to power shedding and blackouts for customers but thankfully the government has dodged that bullet at the moment. That has been because coal and gas power generators have come back online and that could be a flashpoint of what is to come in terms of the push to renewables that the government is going to have to make due to the pressure that will come from the Greens and the Teal Independents. The Liberal Party for their part have said lets go nuclear which as a Scientist I am actually for longer term, but if you do that you will need a climate price on carbon because the initial setup will be very expensive. The other issue with that is the scare campaign that will be run on what to do with the Nuclear waste and also what to do if there’s a nuclear reaction problem. Labor for their part are pushing ahead with their own climate change target of 2030 which is good to see as it would be easy in an energy crisis to crab walk away from action now. Actually, what Labor did was smart they thumbed the blame onto the Coalition for this Energy Price as well as say they need to go green to avoid something like this happening in the future. It’s intriguing the Green debate, everyone says oh if you go green you’ll rise prices, my argument against that is the ACT which just saw their power prices go down for the umpteenth quarter in a row and they are net zero emissions already. Then there’s the International Relationship that Labor have made a real priority of fixing under this new government. The Pacific was a huge priority for Albanese and Penny Wong and they have visited a number of countries already to push their commitment to the region in terms of Climate ambitions and also in terms of smoothing out the Chinese security pact. They have also tried to smooth things out with France after the bungled submarine deal by the Coalition and so far I think they have done well on what is usually a weak spot for the Labor Party. Lastly is an issue that I think will be soon talked about a lot is Indigenous Reconciliation and a voice to Parliament. On this maybe the best chance of bipartisanship in the long run as Peter Dutton has appointed Julian Lesser to the Indigenous Affairs Portfolio who is in favour of a voice to Parliament. The only thing Dutton raised which is fair enough as long as it isn’t a smoke screen to ultimately doing something on a voice to Parliament is the domestic Issues that Indigenous People are facing.

Thanks for reading my blog, stay tuned next week for my summary of the two UK By-Elections that were counted our time today.

USA Politics – Where Santa Claus can run for Political Office and that’s one of the more normal stories

It’s been a crazy few weeks in US Politics and while I don’t want to cause a flame war by talking about one of the most controversial topics of conversation the last few weeks have been that crazy I feel I should make a comment about what is going on in US politics. We’ll start with the comical news first where Santa Claus, yes you read that right is making a serious run to make the run off for the House seat up for grabs in Alaska after the death of a 50 year long term veteran of the state. And just for added spice Sarah Palin is also running for the race to the house, she’s spent the most money and would be favourite if it was a first past the post race but the race is a ranked choice preferential system and that could lead to a surprise win for a more moderate Republican or hell even Santa Claus. Early results trickling in however have put paid to a Santa Claus win with him rating a distant 6th so no Santa for Alaska. Sarah Palin at the moment is well in front with 30% of the vote but as I said the final race will be ranked choice which means she’s not a certain winner just yet. Now onto more sombre news and the fallout of some nasty mass shootings continues to occur. The fallout and reaction has unfortunately been predictable the Left calling for more Gun Control, the Right calling for more guns to protect people from guns. Celebrities coming out and calling for more gun control reform and then people saying stuff you to celebrities you can’t tell me how to vote or feel. At the moment polling has given the usual increased gun control reform boost and it has been rated as a higher priority issue for voters but unfortunately my long term experience is that these things gradually fade from peoples memories and we move to the next mass shooting with no real action. Onto the ongoing debate about Roe vs Wade and it’s continuing to look likely that somewhere in the not too distant future that the Abortion law will be overturned and that will have a devastating effect on women across the American country. It could also motivate Democrats to do what a lot of more extreme socialists want them to do which is to expand the court which would under a Democrat controlled House make the Supreme Court more Liberal. Now, at the moment with a deeply unpopular president few Democrats have pressed the need to do that, but if the SC continues to become more Conservative it is a live option for Democrats to consider, especially if the SC makes decisions out of lockstep with the public. The last thing to touch on US Politics is the ongoing January 6th Capitol Hill Riot debacle. This week the Committee turned to the 21st century and allowed video evidence to be given which was damning in the footage it showed of when a peaceful protest became a violent insurrection. Then you had the most damning evidence of all which was the Testimony of Ivanka Trump who said she respected the advice of the Attorney General that the 2020 Election was a fair Election which caused Donald Trump to lash out at his own daughter saying she had checked out of politics by that point and was just trying to suck up to her powerful political friends. On the Trump front it is looking increasingly likely that Donald Trump will announce a run for the Presidency in 2024 and unless the Capitol Hill Riot prosecution becomes a criminal one then he will probably win as Joe Biden continues to languish as an increasingly unpopular President with his current net approval at -14%.

Thanks for reading my blog, stay tuned next week when I write about how the new Government is going in Australia one month into the job.

Boris- The man of steel now has a few chinks in the armour

Well, he survived. Boris Johnson went from the invincible man who seemingly could do nothing wrong, won a huge landslide election victory in 2019 and then finally got Brexit done. Now, he walks away from a No Confidence motion with 42% or 148 of 359 members of the party wanting someone else to lead the party. The only reason he didn’t lose last night in my opinion is the Conservatives lack a consensus candidate to lead them forward. Rishi Sunak was that candidate at one stage and he is the Chancellor of the Exchequer but some recent tax problems and his management of the cost of living crisis has since his popularity nosedive. Jeremy Hunt is an option but he is a Remainer which is like being of the ilk of Satan in the modern Conservative party. That just leaves options like Liz Truss who doesn’t rate well in the public but is trying to fashion herself as a Modern Thatcher which has won her in party support. Really, the victory of Boris Johnson last night was effectively against an empty chair and I would suspect if the Rebels could coalesce behind one candidate then the threshold of reaching the half of the party would quickly happen. I’m no fan of Nigel Farage but he hit the nail on the head last night when he said Boris Johnson on current form is taking the Tories to a John Major in 1997 Landslide loss which would be terrible for a party that has been in government since 2010. So why did he face a no confidence motion last night? Well, I think the Sue Gray report was the last straw for a lot of Conservatives who had been frankly quite fed up with Boris Johnson almost from day one of his premiership. In some ways Boris Johnson reminds me of Kevin Rudd, very popular with the public, not so popular inside the party which means when the public support inevitably dropped that the enemies he always had inside the party were ready to strike. Now that comparison is not completely fair as I think Boris is far more popular within the party than Kevin Rudd, he did get Brexit done after all which is something that made him a messiah within a party that was ready to split in two on the issue. I think his work on Brexit and the 2019 election win masked problems with Boris Johnson that I thought would always eventually come up. Firstly, he’s a charlatan who is not afraid to bend the truth on Issues to try and win points with the public, I followed the Brexit debate religiously and his claims on immigration to stoke fear on that issue to win voters over to the Brexit cause was deplorable, moreover his recent move to send Immigrants who arrived to the UK “illegally” to Rwanda was disgusting and really was the pieced-resistance to the recent lurch to the right by Boris Johnson. Secondly he’s always been two faced in that he tries to sell himself as an intelligent toff to his Conservative colleagues to try and seem relatable to them while seeming like a senseless buffoon to the public who was a knockabout bloke who was relatable to the public, that worked at first but over time the public have woken up to the fact that its a charade. Lastly he’s Trump like in that for him its always about himself before others, whether it be taking the presidency of the Brexit movement to try and win support for himself, whether it be taking the Prime Ministership after sniping at the previous PM Theresa May, whether it be partying it up in Drunken Parties while the rest of the country were suffering in lockdown, there’s a self centred meism that has always played a part of Boris Johnson’s personality. So where too now for the Tories? Well there’s two by-elections coming up in the UK for two seats, one is in the London area that is a heavy remain voting area that the Tories will lose to the Liberal Democrats that has sort of been given up on by this PM as he chases red wall outer suburban votes, the other constituency is Wakefield which was Labour held from 1934 to 2019, but that is now predicted to fall back to Labour in a landslide. That’s more of a worry to the Tories because it shows they are bleeding votes in more than one direction hence the reason they reckon they are on track to an election landslide loss. I don’t see Boris Johnson quitting in a hurry though so it will take him probably losing a no confidence vote to vacate the role.

Thank you for reading my blog, stay tuned next week when I retouch on US Politics.

Australian Election Review Analysis and the Coalition elect new leaders

Hail to the new overlords. Australia has new leadership with Anthony Albanese becoming the 31st PM. The election was a tale of a few things with the Liberals losing 19 seats it looks like, but that vote not necessarily going to the Labor Party at least not on first votes, a lot of the vote did get there on preferences WA aside where Labor rode the popularity of Mark McGowan to win a number of seats in WA. So in total you have Labor on 75 seats and could yet get to 77 seats, The coalition are on 57 seats and could get to 58,59 seats and then you have others on 16 seats. That leaves 3 seats in doubt of which two are traditional Liberal vs Labor seats in Deakin where I think the Liberals will win and then in Gilmore which is on a knife edge and could well go either way. Then there’s Macnamara which is a messy 3 way cornered contest that could go to either the Greens or more likely Labor depending on the order of elimination. Whoever finishes 2nd to the Libs will win the seat and at the moment that is looking like Labor. So, where was the election won and lost? Well, WA is where Labor won the election ultimately claiming 4 seats, the expected ones in Swan and Pearce and then unexpected results in Hasluck and Tangney where Scott Morrison’s closest confidant Ben Morton lost his seat. WA ended up having a 10%! swing away from the Libs on 1st Preference and 10.2% on 2PP Swing. It ended up being a Teal bath and a Green wave with the Independents taking 3 seats from Liberals in NSW and 1 seat from the Labor Party of which I will talk about more later. Victoria saw two seats switch from the Liberal party to the Teals and then WA saw 1 seat won by the Teals off the Liberal Party. As for the Greens they took the Brisbane inner heartland seats of Brisbane and Ryan from the Liberal Party and Griffith from the Labor Party. The Liberals clearly abandoned the inner heartland in this election and there strategy was to ditch the city for the outer suburban seats. That backfired on them desperately with them not making much ground in seats like Corangamite, Dobell, Dunkley, Hunter, Parramatta and Shortland. The only state that held up for the Coalition was Tasmania and that was due to a few factors, firstly the state government there is popular, secondly the members particularly Bridget Archer were not afraid to stand up for their own beliefs in this last term of Parliament, lastly in Lyons last time there was a poor candidate selection issue that wasn’t a problem this time so that was a natural cause of the swing. Lingiari was another seat that saw a swing to the Country Liberals but that can be reflected upon by a very popular member retiring in Warren Snowden. Now of interest to me is where the Major Party vote went and its a smattering of votes going everywhere. Clearly the Libs lost ground to the Independents, Greens and Labor. Labor lost ground to the Greens and Independents. One Nation on raw numbers had a good night but that hides the fact that they were sitting in 96 more seats this time and so in a lot of the key seats they actually went backwards this time. The interest to me is what will happen to the Political Centre after this election, the Labor Party will clearly be dragged to the left on a lot of social and environmental issues and Peter Dutton is saying the right things for the most part but there’s a real concern that the Liberals and Nationals will lurch to the right. The Economy is the issue I will be intrigued with the most from both sides of the political fence and it will be intriguing to see what both sides do about a challenging area of politics. We have increasing inflation which is leading to increasing interest rates, housing affordability crunch and increasing National debt which both sides appear happy to keep pumping up.

Now onto to the changing leadership, it was obvious the Liberals leadership would go to Peter Dutton, which was the only choice the Libs had after Josh Frydenberg lost his seat. The deputy position went to Sussan Ley which is also intriguing as she was the Environment Minister, she can help the Liberals position with woman but it needs to be more than tokenistic, it needs to be a genuine change in party attitude. Then you had the Nats and I knew Barnaby Joyce was a dead goose once David Littleproud announced he was running, Perin Davey is an interesting choice as deputy given she was only elected in 2019 but again the Nats wanted to be seen to addressing their woman problem.

Thanks for reading my blog, stay tuned at the end of the week as I break down the Gun Reform Battle in America.

NSW and Queensland Seat Prediction, and ACT too

The finale of my state and territory previews and what will reveal my prediction for how the seats will play out this Saturday night. First up, the biggest state of them all NSW.

NSW

Banks

This seat was first contested in 1949 and until 2013 was a Labor stronghold, having never been won by the Liberal Party. Since 2013 it has been held by David Coleman and he has increasingly made this seat safer Liberal. This seat sits in the Southern area of Sydney but used to be more to the South West of the city. The Labor candidate in Banks is Zhi Soon but I think David Coleman will hold albeit with a swing against him.

Labor 42 Liberals 25 Independents 4 Greens 1

Barton

Barton is a seat that has existed since 1922, it has flipped between the two major parties in its early history, however since 1983 the seat has been pretty solidly held by Labor. The current member is Linda Burney, having held the seat since 2016. The seats most famous member is Dr H.V. Evatt who was opposition leader for 9 years and Minister under 3 PM’s. The seat of Barton is covered by the Inner Western suburbs of Sydney. The Liberal Candidate is John Goody but he is not going to win Barton.

Labor 43 Liberals 25 Independents 4 Greens 1

Bennelong

A seat that has been contested since 1949, this seat has mainly voted Liberal in its history but was famously won by Maxine McKew for one term. John Howard is the seats most famous member having served as PM from 1996-2007. The seats current member John Alexander is retiring at this election which puts it at play. The seat of Bennelong is based in the West and Southern Shores of Sydney. The Liberal Candidate is Simon Kennedy and the Labor Candidate is Jerome Laxale. This is a hard seat to predict with the retiring member going but I think Liberals should win.

Labor 43 Liberals 26 Independents 4 Greens 1

Berowra

A seat that has existed since 1969, this seat has only ever been held by the Liberal Party. The seat of Berowra is set in the Outer Northern Suburbs of Sydney. The seat is currently held by Julian Leeser and the most famous member is Phillip Ruddock who was member for 23 years and a senior Minister under Howard. The Labor candidate here is Benson Koschinkski but the Liberals will safely hold this seat.

Labor 43 Liberals 27 Independents 4 Greens 1

Blaxland

A seat that has existed since 1949, this seat has only ever had Labor members. The seats most famous member is Paul Keating, who was PM for five years and famously won the miracle election in 1993. The current member is Jason Clare and his star is rising rapidly, having been a key spokesperson in this election campaign. The electorate of Blaxland is currently based in the South West of Sydney taking in the council of Bankstown. The Liberal Candidate for this seat is again Oz Guney but Labor are winning this seat.

Labor 44 Liberals 27 Independents 4 Greens 1

Bradfield

The seat of Bradfield has existed since 1949 and in that time it has never voted for anyone but a Liberal, indeed the seat has never needed to go to Preferences in the seat. Bradfield is another Northern Sydney seat. The seats current member is Paul Fletcher and the seats most famous member is Dr Brendan Nelson who was Opposition leader for a year and famously said he had never voted Liberal in his life in his early days. The Labor candidate for Bradfield is David Brigden but Labor is not winning this seat.

Labor 44 Liberals 28 Independents 4 Greens 1

Calare

Calare has existed since 1906 and over the time has swung between the two major parties and even had an Independent sit in the seat for 11 years. The seat covers the Central part of Rural NSW, taking in the major towns of Bathurst, Lithgow and surrounding towns. The current member is Andrew Gee and the seats most famous member is Harold Thorby who was Minister for 3 PM’s. The Labor Candidate is Sarah Elliot but she wont win this seat.

Labor 44 Liberals 29 Independents 4 Greens 1

Chifley

This seat has existed since 1969 and has never voted in a Liberal member. The seat is based in Western Sydney. The seat is currently held by Ed Husic, the seats most famous member is Roger Price who was a Chief Government Whip under Rudd and Gillard. The seats Liberal candidate is Jungadeep Singh but Ed Husic will comfortably win this seat.

Labor 45 Liberals 29 Independents 4 Greens 1

Cook

The seat has existed since 1969 and for all bar one term has been Liberal held. The seats most famous member is the incumbent Scott Morrison who is the current PM of Australia. This seat is based in the expensive leafy southern suburbs of Sydney. The Labor candidate is Simon Earle but he wont win this seat.

Labor 45 Liberals 30 Independents 4 Greens 1

Cowper

Cowper is a federation seat, having existed since 1901. This seat has been in the Conservatives hand for all bar two years of its existence. The seats current member is Pat Conaghan and the seats most famous member is Sir Earle Page who was a Minister under several PM’s and was also the PM for a short time. This seat has been under threat by Rob Oakeshott the last two elections but without him then the seat will be safely held by the Nationals. The seat of Cowper is Rural in nature and it covers the area from Coffs Harbour to Port Macquarie. The Independent in this seat is Caz Heise but she wont win this seat.

Labor 45 Liberals 31 Independents 4 Greens 1

Cunningham

A seat that has existed since 1949. Cunningham has been Labor held for all of its history other than 2 years when it was held by the Greens. The current member Sharon Bird is retiring at this election. The most famous member was Dr Stephen Martin who was speaker in the Keating Government. The seat covers the provincial area of Wollongong, it is Labor’s safest non Metropolitan seat. The Labor candidate is Alison Byrnes and she will win over the Liberal Candidate Marcus Uren.

Labor 46 Liberals 31 Independents 4 Greens 1

Dobell

A seat that has existed since 1984, this seat has been Labor held for most of its history save for 2001-2007 and 2013-2016. The seat is currently held by Emma McBride. The seat is located to the North of Sydney in the Central Coast. Michael Fenely is the Liberal Candidate for Dobell. Michael Lee is the seats most famous member who was a Minister under Paul Keating. This is a seat on a tight margin and could well swing to the Libs this election, I think Labor should hold it just.

Labor 47 Liberals 31 Independents 4 Greens 1

Eden Monaro

A federation seat having existed since 1901. For a number of years Eden Monaro was a Bell-Wether seat having gone with the party of government. Labor’s Mike Kelly bucked that trend in 2016, winning the seat back off the Liberals despite the Libs holding onto government. This seat famously went to a by-election in 2020 and Labor just held onto the seat, despite suffering a swing against it. Eden Monaro covers the Rural area of South Eastern NSW covering towns like Bega and Yass. Kristy McBain is the current candidate and the Liberal candidate is Jerry Nockles. I would suspect Labor will hold onto this seat but it could swing either way.

Labor 48 Liberals 31 Independents 4 Greens 1

Farrer

A seat that has been contested since 1949, it has only had 4 members of which all 4 have been Conservative and have all served in Cabinet. The current member is Sussan Ley and she has held the seat since 2001. The seats most famous member is Tim Fischer who was Deputy PM and Leader of the Nats for 3 and 9 years respectively. The seat of Farrer covers the rural area of Central NSW taking in towns such as Hay and Balranald. The Labor candidate in this seat is Darren Cameron but without an independent that is strong here this will be a safe Liberal hold.

Labor 48 Liberals 32 Independents 4 Greens 1

Fowler

An interesting seat to watch, this seat has existed since 1984 and has always been in Labor hands. This seat is based in South Western Sydney and is a safe Labor seat currently. The incumbent member Chris Hayes who was Chief Government Whip under Gillard and Rudd was the seats most prominent member. Kristina Keneally has been parachuted into this seat from the Senate and that has angered local members to the point where prominent councillor Dai Le has entered the contest as an Independent. Kristina Keneally has the name power and would be a significant Minister under a Labor Government but I think she may lose this seat.

Labor 48 Liberals 32 Independents 5 Greens 1

Gilmore

An intriguing seat to watch. This seat has existed since 1984 and has been Liberal/National held for all but 2 terms. The seat is rural in nature and covers the Shoalhaven and Illawarra region. The current member is Fiona Phillips and this seat was badly managed by the Liberal Party at the last election pushing out a female member and then preselecting someone who was the former Labor Party President in Warren Mundine. This time the Liberals have preselected former State MP Andrew Constance who has a very high profile. This is a tough seat to predict and it could go either way, but I think the Liberals might well gain this seat.

Labor 48 Liberals 33 Independents 5 Greens 1

Grayndler

This seat has been contested since 1949 and has only ever been won by Labor. This seat is the smallest electorate in the country by land area at 32 square km’s. It takes in the Inner South to Inner Western Suburbs of Sydney. The seat of Grayndler’s most famous member is the incumbent and wannabe PM in Anthony Albanese and he has held the seat since 1996. The seat is most at risk from the Greens and the Greens candidate for this seat is Rachel Jacobs but she wont win this seat.

Labor 49 Liberals 33 Independents 5 Greens 1

Greenway

A seat that has been contested since 1984, it has been in Labor’s hands for all bar 6 years. The seat hasn’t had a prominent member and the current MP is Michelle Rowland. The seat is based in the Outer North Western Suburbs of Sydney. Pradeep Pathi is the Liberal Candidate for this seat but I can’t see them winning.

Labor 50 Liberals 33 Independents 5 Greens 1

Hughes

A seat that has existed since 1955, this seat started as a fairly safe Labor seat but in recent years has become a safer Liberal seat. This seat is currently held by 1 time Liberal and now Leader of the United Australia Party Craig Kelly. Hughes covers the southern outer metropolitan area of Sydney. The seats most famous member is Les Johnson who was a Minister under Whitlam and eventually retired to become The Australian High Commissioner to New Zealand. This seat is an intriguing one to pick, Craig Kelly wont win but his preferences will be crucial to whether the Liberal Candidate Jenny Ware will win the seat or if one of the independents or the Labor candidate Riley Campbell will win the seat. I would favour this being a Liberal win.

Labor 50 Liberals 34 Independents 5 Greens 1

Hume

Hume is an original Federation seat, having been contested at every election since 1901. The seat of Hume is a rural seat located just south of Sydney. Angus Taylor is the current member for Hume and the seat has been fairly safe Liberal recently after swinging between the 2 major parties in its early history. The seats most prominent member is Sir William Lyne who was a minister under Barton and Deakin. The Labor candidate for this seat is Greg Baines but he wont win this seat.

Labor 50 Liberals 35 Independents 5 Greens 1

Hunter

An original Federation seat, it has been contested at every election since 1901. This seat started in Conservative hands but since 1910 has been in Labor’s hand at every election, albeit there was a mighty scare at the last election for the Labor Party. Hunter is a rural seat covering the Hunter coal mining region. This seat has most prominently been held by Sir Edmund Barton the first PM of this country. The Labor member Joel Fitzgibbon is retiring at this election and the seat is being contested by a Coal Miner Dan Repacholi, while the Nats are contesting this seat with James Thomson. One Nation are also going to be key here and if they poll above 20% again their preferences will be crucial to who wins this seat. Ultimately this will be close but I think the Nats will win this seat.

Labor 50 Liberals 36 Independents 5 Greens 1

Kingsford-Smith

An older electorate, it has been contested since 1949. The seat has only ever been Labor held and has had a number of prominent members in its history. The current member for Kingsford-Smith is Matt Thistlewaite and he has held the seat since 2013. The seat covers the South Eastern Suburbs of Sydney. The seats most prominent member is Lionel Bowen who was Deputy PM under Bob Hawke and was Deputy Leader of the Labor Party for 11 years. The Liberal candidate in this seat is Grace Tan but they aren’t winning this seat.

Labor 51 Liberals 36 Independents 5 Greens 1

Lindsay

A seat that has been contested since 1984. It has been a bellwether seat from 1984 to 2016 when it was won by Labor’s Emma Husar. Some controversy caused her to lose favour in the party and the seat was won by the current MP Melissa McIntosh in 2019. This seat is located in Western Sydney. The most famous member was Ross Free who was a cabinet minister under two PM’s. The Labor candidate here is Trevor Ross but I think the Libs should hold this seat.

Labor 51 Liberals 37 Independents 5 Greens 1

Lyne

A seat that has been contested since 1949, it has almost always been held by the Conservatives save for five years when it was held by Rob Oakeshott. The seat is rural in nature and covers the north coast of NSW. The seats most prominent member is Mark Vaile who was briefly Nationals Leader and Deputy PM to John Howard. The seats current member is David Gillespie and he should easily defeat Labor Candidate Alex Simpson.

Labor 51 Liberals 38 Independents 5 Greens 1

Macarthur

A seat that has been contested since 1949. This seat was a bell-wether seat from 1949-2007 going with the party of government every time during that span. The seat is currently held by Dr Mike Freelander. The seat covers the outer metropolitan south western parts of Sydney although it almost is a rural seat. The seat was most prominently held by John Fahey a Finance Minister under Howard and also a former NSW Premier. The Liberal Opponent is Binod Paudel but they are not winning this seat.

Labor 52 Liberals 38 Independents 5 Greens 1

Mackellar

A blue ribbon seat that has been contested since 1949, the seat has only had 4 members all being Liberal. This seat is currently held safely by the Liberal MP Jason Fallinski. The most famous member is Bronwyn Bishop who was a minister under Howard and also speaker of the House during the Abbott years. This seat is based around the Northern outer Metropolitan areas of Sydney. This seat has a prominent independent running this time in Sophie Scamps. She is a real chance of winning the seat and is definitely a seat to watch on election night. My money indeed is on Sophie Scamps to pick up this seat on election night.

Labor 52 Liberals 38 Independents 6 Greens 1

Macquarie

An original federation seat, this seat has been contested at every election since 1901. Over the years it has flipped backwards and forth between Labor and the Conservatives. The current member is Susan Templeman and the most famous member of the seat is Ben Chiefly a Labor PM. The seat of Macquarie covers the Blue Mountains a strong Labor area and Hawkesbury a strong Liberal area. This is a seat to watch come election night as Labor only hold this seat by 0.2%. The Liberal Opponent is again Sarah Richards and I think she might take this seat.

Labor 52 Liberals 39 Independents 6 Greens 1

McMahon

A new seat only been contested since 2010 but effectively replaced the old seat of Prospect which was contested from 1969. The seat has only ever been held by Labor. This seat is currently held by Chris Bowen who was a cabinet Minister from 2009-2013 and was briefly Treasurer in 2013 under Kevin Rudd 2.0. McMahon is located in the outer metropolitan areas of Western Sydney and encompasses a strong Migrant Community. The Liberal candidate in this election is again Vivek Singha but Labor will comfortably win this seat.

Labor 53 Liberals 39 Independents 6 Greens 1

Mitchell

The seat of Mitchell has been contested since 1949 and has been a solid Liberal seat since 1974. The Labor Party did win the seat a few times early in its history but it is now one of the safest Liberal seats in the state. Alex Hawke is the current member for Mitchell and he is a Minister of the Crown and a close confidant of Morrison. The seat is located in the North Western Parts of Sydney. The Labor Candidate is again Immanuel Selvaraj but they aren’t going to win this seat.

Labor 53 Liberals 40 Independents 6 Greens 1

New England

An original Federation seat, it has been contested at every election since 1901. It has been a stronghold for the Conservative Country and National Party with it being held by those parties since 1913 apart from a brief stint as an Independent seat under Tony Windsor. Barnaby Joyce is the current MP and Deputy PM but the seats most prominent member is Ian Sinclair who was Deputy PM for 5 years, Minister under 6 PM’s and Speaker of the House briefly under John Howard. The seat is rural in nature and covers Tamworth, Armidale and surrounding towns. Laura Hughes is the Labor candidate but she will not win this seat, indeed it will probably be an Independent who comes second here.

Labor 53 Liberals 41 Independents 6 Greens 1

Newcastle

Newcastle is a Federation seat which has existed since 1901. It has only ever been held by Labor. Newcastle is a City outside of Sydney which tends to vote heavily for Labor. The current MP is Sharon Claydon and she has held the seat since 2013. The seats most prominent member is Charles Jones who was a Minister under Whitlam. The Liberal Candidate this election is again Katrina Wark but she wont win the seat.

Labor 54 Liberals 41 Independents 6 Greens 1

North Sydney

This is an intriguing seat to watch, that has moved to the forefront of people’s attention in the last few weeks of this campaign from the Independent and Labor front. North Sydney is a federation seat having been contested at every election since 1901. North Sydney covers the North Shore of Sydney Suburbs. The most famous member of North Sydney is Billy Hughes who was PM during an earlier stint as Bendigo member and was the leader of the United Australia Party. The Conservatives have held this seat for all bar 2 terms when Ted Mack held the seat. This seat is hard to predict, Trent Zimmerman the current MP should finish first on votes but then Independent Kylea Tink and Labor Catherine Renshaw could win the seat from the others preferences. I am finding it hard to predict this seat but if I had to go with a winner, I’d go with Tink.

Labor 54 Liberals 41 Independents 7 Greens 1

Page

This seat on paper looks safe, but was ravaged by the recent NSW and Queensland Floods which could mean the seat is in play this time. This seat has been contested since 1984 and since 1990 has been a bell-wether seat. Kevin Hogan is the current MP and there hasn’t really been a prominent Local MP other than him. This seat covers the North East Coast rural area of the state of NSW up to the Queensland border. The Labor candidate for this seat is Patrick Deegan while the Independent who could win is Hanabeth Luke. I think Kevin Hogan can just hold onto this seat, but it is one to watch on election night.

Labor 54 Liberals 42 Independents 7 Greens 1

Parkes

This electorate has been contested since 1984. It has only ever been won by the Nationals. The current member is Mark Coulton. The seat is rural in nature and takes in a large amount of NSW to the north and the west including Dubbo all the way to Broken Hill. The most prominent member is the current member who has held the seat since 2007. This seat is ultra safe and unless the Shooters party run in this seat will remain so. The Labor candidate in this seat is Jack Ayoub but he will not win this seat.

Labor 54 Liberals 43 Independents 7 Greens 1

Parramatta

This is a federation seat having been contested at every election since 1901. This seat has flipped between the two major parties over the years and is currently Labor held but on a marginal basis. The incumbent MP Julie Owens is retiring and is trying to be replaced by Andrew Charlton another high figure in the Labor Party but again a fly in candidate that could go down poorly with some voters. The most famous member is Sir Joseph Cook who was PM for a year. The seat of Parramatta is based in Western Sydney. This seat is being contested by the Liberals this time by Maria Kovacich and she’s an outside chance of winning this seat, I think Labor will just hang on here.

Labor 55 Liberals 43 Independents 7 Greens 1

Paterson

A seat that has had two iterations, one from 1949-1984 and then a second iteration from 1993 onwards. The seat in its first iteration was conservative in nature and then in the second iteration swung between the two parties. It is currently held by Meryl Swanson. The seat covers the area just north of Newcastle. It is a seat where the Liberals hope to make more ground in at this election with candidate Brooke Vitnell but I think the Labor Party will hold on here.

Labor 56 Liberals 43 Independents 7 Greens 1

Reid

An interesting seat to watch on Election Night, this seat has been contested at every election since 1922. The seat was strongly Labor held until 2013 when the Liberal Party won the seat and they have held the seat ever since. This seat is currently held by Fiona Martin and the most famous member is Tom Uren who was the Minister under Whitlam and Hawke. This seat covers the area of inner western suburb of Sydney. The Labor candidate at this election is Sally Sitou and I think she will win this seat.

Labor 57 Liberals 43 Independents 7 Greens 1

Richmond

A Federation seat, this seat has been contested at every election since 1901. The seat in its early history was held by the Conservatives but in recent years has been held more by Labor as the Greens have gradually increased their vote and given the seat to Labor on Preferences. The seats most famous MP is Doug Anthony who was Minister for 6 PM’s and Deputy PM for 3 PM’s. The current MP is Justine Elliot. This seat is located in the top North East of the State of NSW and covers the coastal towns of that region. The Nats Candidate this election is Kimberly Hone and the Greens Candidate is Mandy Nolan. I will pick Justine Elliot to just hold this seat.

Labor 58 Liberals 43 Independents 7 Greens 1

Riverina

This seat is a Federation seat but has existed in two iterations, the first from 1901 to 1984 and then from 1993 to current. The seat in its first iteration flipped between the Conservatives and the Labor Party but has become a solid Nationals seat in its second iteration. This seat is rural in nature, and covers Wagga Wagga, Parkes and Forbes and surrounding towns. The seat is currently held by Michael McCormack who was Deputy PM and Minister under Turnbull and Morrison. Mark Jefferson is again the Labor candidate in this seat but he will not win this seat.

Labor 58 Liberals 44 Independents 7 Greens 1

Robertson

A Federation seat, it has been contested at every election since 1901. This is a tight electorate to pick and has been a bell-wether seat at every election since 1983. The seat is based in the South East of the Central Coast. This seat is currently held by Lucy Wicks and the seats most famous member is Barry Cohen who held the seat for Labor for 21 years and was a Minister under Hawke. The Labor candidate in this seat is Gordon Reid and this seat could go either way, I think Liberal will hold this seat.

Labor 58 Liberals 45 Independents 7 Greens 1

Shortland

A seat that has existed since 1949. Shortland has only ever been held by the Labor Party. This seat became marginal at the last election as Scott Morrison played well in rural seats that would traditionally favour the Labor Party. Pat Conroy is the current MP and the most famous MP is Peter Morris who was MP for 26 years and was a Minister under Hawke. The seat is in the Hunter region covering Lake Macquarie and surrounding areas. The Liberal Candidate here is Neil McGill but I think Pat Conroy will hold this seat.

Labor 59 Liberals 45 Independents 7 Greens 1

Sydney

A seat that has existed since 1969. The seat has only ever been won by Labor. The seat is based around the city Centre of Sydney. The current MP and the most prominent MP is Tanya Plibersek. The Liberal Candidate in this seat is Alexander Andruska but he is not going to win this seat.

Labor 60 Liberals 45 Independents 7 Greens 1

Warringah

The seat of Warringah has been contested since 1922. Except on two occasions it has always voted in Conservative Candidates. Warringah is currently based around Northern Sydney. The current MP is Zali Steggall who won the seat off the most prominent member in Tony Abbott who was PM from 2013-2015. The Liberal candidate in this seat is Katherine Deves and she has controversial views on Transgender humans which has plagued her campaign. As a result this is a safe hold for Zali Steggall.

Labor 60 Liberals 45 Independents 8 Greens 1

Watson

Watson has only existed since 1993, in that time it has always been a safe Labor seat. The seat of Watson covers the inner south western suburbs of Sydney. This seat is currently held by Tony Burke who was a Minister under Rudd and Gillard and is currently the Manager of Opposition Business. The seat of Watson’s Liberal Candidate is Sazeda Akter but they are not winning this seat.

Labor 61 Liberals 45 Independents 8 Greens 1

Wentworth

Another very interesting seat to watch, Wentworth is a Federation seat having been contested at every election since 1901. In its history it has mostly elected Conservatives other than the 2018 by-election where Kerryn Phelps won the seat after Malcolm Turnbull retired to quit politics. The seat is very leafy and very expensive and covers the Eastern Suburbs of Sydney. This seat is currently held by Dave Sharma and the Independent trying to win this seat is Allegra Spender. This is a lineball seat to predict and it could go either way but I reckon Dave Sharma just holds on.

Labor 61 Liberals 46 Independents 8 Greens 1

Werriwa

A federation seat that has been contested since 1901. It flipped hands in its early years between Conservatives and Labor but has been Labor held since 1934. The current member is Anne Stanley and the most famous member is Gough Whitlam who was PM from 1972 to 1975 when he was dismissed as PM. The seat covers the South Western Outer Metropolitan areas of Sydney. This seats Liberal Candidate is Sam Kuyul but they wont win this seat.

Labor 62 Liberals 46 Independents 8 Greens 1

Whitlam

This seat is a renamed seat of Throsby that has existed under its current name since 2016. This seat has only ever elected Labor members and the Current MP is Stephen Jones. The seat covers the southern Illawarra region as well as the Southern Highlands of NSW. The Liberal candidate for this seat is Mike Cains but this seat will be retained by Labor.

Labor 63 Liberals 46 Independents 8 Greens 1

ACT

Bean

Bean is a new but old seat depending how you look at it, in that has more in common with the old Canberra Electorate that has existed since 1975 but has existed in this form from 2019. The current MP is David Smith and he was a senator briefly before contesting Bean in 2019. Bean covers the Southern parts of Canberra into the Southern parts of the ACT. The Liberal Candidate here this time is Jane Hiatt but Labor will win this seat.

Labor 64 Liberals 46 Independents 8 Greens 1

Canberra

This is a new seat in terms of the area it covers having only been contested for the first time since 2019. The incumbent MP is Alicia Payne who holds the ultra safe seat for Labor. The seat of Canberra covers the central part of Canberra. The Greens may one day be competitive in this seat but for now neither Liberal candidate Slade Minson or the Greens candidate Tim Hollo will win this seat.

Labor 65 Liberals 46 Independents 8 Greens 1

Fenner

The seat of Fenner is a rebadge of the old seat of Fraser and has been contested in its current name since 2016. The seats current MP is Dr Andrew Leigh. This seat covers the Northern Suburbs of Canberra. This seat is a safe Labor hold and the Liberal Candidate Nathan Kuster isn’t going to change that.

Labor 66 Liberals 46 Independents 8 Greens 1

Queensland

Blair

Blair is a newer electorate, having only been first contested in 1998. The electorate has been split into two time periods, Liberal held until 2007 and then Labor held ever since. This seat is one to watch on election night as it had a massive swing to the LNP at the last election. The seat of Blair covers the rural town of Ipswich. This seat is currently held by Shayne Neumann and the Liberal Candidate here this time is Sam Biggins but I think with a suggested swing back to Labor this time that Shayne should hold this seat.

Labor 67 Liberals 46 Independents 8 Greens 1

Bonner

A newer seat that has only existed since 2004. The seat has been won by the Liberals in all but one election when Rudd caused Queensland to swing to Labor. Bonner covers the South Eastern Suburbs of Brisbane. The current MP is Ross Vasta and the Labor candidate here is Tabatha Young but they are not going to win this seat.

Labor 67 Liberals 47 Independents 8 Greens 1

Bowman

A seat that has been contested since 1949. This seat has swung between the 2 major parties over the history although since 2004 it has LNP held by Andrew Lamning. The current MP is retiring at this election and that may be a positive given the remarks that has come from Andrew Lamning. The most famous member of Bowman is Con Sciacca who was a Minister under Paul Keating. Bowman sits to the east of Brisbane covering the Redlands LGA. This seat is being contested by Henry Pike for the LNP and Donisha Duff for Labor but the LNP should easily win this seat.

Labor 67 Liberals 48 Independents 8 Greens 1

Brisbane

This seat is a federation seat and has been contested at every election since 1901. The seat has swung between the Labor and Liberal party over the years. This seat is currently held by Trevor Evans of the Liberal Party. Brisbane covers the central suburbs of Brisbane. The seats most famous member is George Lawson who was an MP for 30 years and served under the PM Curtin. The Labor candidate for this seat is Madonna Jarret and the Greens candidate is Stephen Bates. This is a hard seat to call but I think Labor may just win this seat.

Labor 68 Liberals 48 Independents 8 Greens 1

Capricornia

This seat is a Federation seat having been contested since 1901. This seat has swung between the 2 major parties over the years and for the most part has been marginal. Labor suffered a massive swing against it at the last election and it will be intriguing to see if that was a one off occurrence. The seat of Capricornia covers the Centre of Queensland from Rockhampton to the southern parts of Mackay. The current MP is Michelle Landry and the seats most famous member is Frank Forde who was PM very briefly in 1945 and was minister under 3 PM’s. The Labor Candidate is again Russell Robertson but he is not going to overturn such a large margin.

Labor 68 Liberals 49 Independents 8 Greens 1

Dawson

The seat has existed since 1949. For most of the history this seat has been Conservative held but this seat has had some periods of Labor hold. The seats incumbent member George Christensen otherwise referred to as the member for Manilla is retiring at this election to become a Senate Candidate for One Nation. The seat of Dawson takes in North of Mackay to the outskirts of Townsville to the north of the seat. This seats most famous member is Charles Davidson who was member for 14 years and was a minister under Menzies. This seat has a Liberal candidate in Andrew Willcox and the Labor candidate is Shane Hamilton. This seat is a lot more competitive than the 14.6% margin suggests but this should be a LNP hold.

Labor 68 Liberals 50 Independents 8 Greens 1

Dickson

The seat is fairly new, having only been contested since 1993. This seat has been Liberal held since 2001 but was Labor held in its early history. Peter Dutton is the incumbent and the most prominent MP. The seat of Dickson covers the North Western suburbs of Brisbane. The Labor candidate is again Ali France but I think Peter Dutton will hold this seat.

Labor 68 Liberals 51 Independents 8 Greens 1

Fadden

This seat has been contested since 1977. The seat has been held for all bar one year by the LNP. This seat is currently held by the sometimes hapless minister Stuart Roberts. I would probably rank him as the most prominent member the seats had too. This seat has been based around the Northern parts of the Gold Coast. The Labor candidate is Letitia Del Fabbro but the LNP are winning this seat.

Labor 68 Liberals 52 Independents 8 Greens 1

Fairfax

The seat of Fairfax has existed since 1984. The seat for all bar one term has been won by the LNP. This seat is most famously known for electing Clive Palmer for one term. The seat is rural in nature and covers the Sunshine Coast. It is currently held by Ted O’Brien and he holds the seat safely over Labor. The Labor candidate in this seat is Sue Ferguson but she isn’t going to win this seat.

Labor 68 Liberals 53 Independents 8 Greens 1

Fisher

A seat that has existed since 1949. This seat has been mostly Conservative held during its history. The seat has had two speakers in its history, the current Speaker and current MP Andrew Wallace and the seats most prominent member Peter Slipper. The seat is rural and covers the southern part of the Sunshine Coast. The Labor candidate is Judene Andrews but Andrew Wallace should safely hold this seat.

Labor 68 Liberals 54 Independents 8 Greens 1

Flynn

An interesting seat to watch. The seat of Flynn has only been contested since 2007, it was Labor held for one term and then has been held by the LNP ever since. This seat is currently held by Ken O’Dowd and he is retiring at this election, hence the intrigue in this seat. The seat covers the Rural Central area of Queensland extending from Gladstone to the town of Emerald. The Liberal National Party candidate here is Colin Boyce and the Labor candidate is Matt Burnett and I think the LNP will just hold on here.

Labor 68 Liberals 55 Independents 8 Greens 1

Forde

This seat has existed since 1984. It has flipped between the 2 major parties over the years but has been held by the LNP since 2010. The current MP is Bert Van Manen who is the Chief Government Whip in the LNP. This seat is another marginal seat that had its margin inflated at the 2019 election. The seat of Forde covers the region between Brisbane and the Gold Coast which is Logan. The Labor Party have preselected Rowan Holzberger but he will not win this seat.

Labor 68 Liberals 56 Independents 8 Greens 1

Griffith

This is a classic three way contest. This seat is an older one having been contested at every election since 1934. This seat is currently held by Terri Butler and has most famously been held by Kevin Rudd who was PM from 2007 to 2010 and in 2013. This seat covers the southern suburbs of Brisbane. The 3 main players in this race are a repeat from 2019, with Olivia Roberts the Liberal Candidate and Max Chandler-Mather the Greens candidate. This is a hard contest to pick but I will back the incumbent Labor.

Labor 69 Liberals 56 Independents 8 Greens 1

Groom

A newer seat having only been contested in its current form since 1984. This seat has always been held by the Conservative side of politics. The seat of Groom is a rural seat and covers the area of Towoomba and areas west of that. The current member is Garth Hamilton who claimed the seat at a by-election in 2020. This seat has most famously been held by Ian Macfarlane a Liberal Minister under Howard and Abbott. The Labor Candidate for this seat is Gen Allpass but they are not going to win this seat.

Labor 69 Liberals 57 Independents 8 Greens 1

Herbert

A federation seat having been contested at every election since 1901. This seat has swung between the Conservatives and Labor over the years although in recent years has been won more by the Conservatives. The current member is Phillip Thompson and the seats most famous member is the first one in Fred Bamford who was a Minister under Hughes. The seat is Rural and covers the town of Townsville. The Labor candidate for this seat is John Ring but the LNP should win this seat.

Labor 69 Liberals 58 Independents 8 Greens 1

Hinkler

This seat has existed since 1984 and for most of its history has been held by the Nationals. This seat is currently held by Keith Pitt who is the only MP to have served as minister during the seats tenure. The seats covers the East Coast of Bundaberg and surrounding towns. This seat is very safe LNP and the Labor candidate Jason Scanes wont win this seat.

Labor 69 Liberals 59 Independents 8 Greens 1

Kennedy

An original Federation seat this seat has been contested since 1901. This seat in its early history swung between the two major parties but in recent history has been held by Bob Katter Snr and Jnr. The seat is rural in nature and covers the far North to North Western Parts of Queensland. The seat was most famously held by Charles MacDonald of Labor who was the speaker of the House in the Hughes and Fisher Governments. This seat will be Katter country until he dies or retires and the LNP Candidate Bryce MacDonald is not winning this seat.

Labor 69 Liberals 59 Independents 9 Greens 1

Leichhardt

This seat has been contested since 1949. It has been a bellwether electorate in every election since 1972 except for 2010 when Warren Entsch the current MP won the seat unexpectedly. The seat is rural in nature and covers everything from Cairns North. Unlike the other rural seats the seat of Leichhardt did not have a massive swing to it in 2019 as coal is not an issue here. Indeed with the Great Barrier Reef a feature of this seat, Climate Action actually plays a bigger role in this seat. The Labor Candidate at this election is again Elida Faith but I think while Entsch is around he should hold this seat just.

Labor 69 Liberals 60 Independents 9 Greens 1

Lilley

This seat has been contested since 1913. It flipped between the two major parties in its early history but recently has become a Labor stronghold having held it for all bar one term since 1980. The current member is Annika Wells who has held the seat since 2019 when she survived a massive swing against her to just hold on. This seat is based around the Northern Suburbs of Brisbane. The seats most prominent member was Wayne Swan who was Deputy PM to Julia Gillard and a Minister under Rudd and Gillard, he is also the current President of the Labor Party. The Liberal candidate for this seat is Vivian Lobo but I think the sophomore surge should mean Wells hangs on.

Labor 70 Liberals 60 Independents 9 Greens 1

Longman

The LNP’s most marginal seat in Queensland and therefore a seat to watch in the Election, this seat is a new seat having only been contested since 1996. The seat has been most LNP held. The seat is provincial in nature and covers the Moreton Bay Region including Caboolture. This seat is currently held by Terry Young and was most famously held by Mal Brough a minister under Howard. This seat could go either way and the Labor candidate here is Rebecca Fanning, I think the outer suburban appeal of Morrison could just save Terry Young here.

Labor 70 Liberals 61 Independents 9 Greens 1

Maranoa

An original federation seat, this seat has been contested at every election since 1901. After an early stint of being a Labor seat a few times this seat has become a stronghold for the Country and National Party. The current member is David Littleproud who I suspect will become the Nationals leader in the not too distant future. The seat is rural in nature and covers the South Western part of the State as well as the Darling Downs. This seats most famous member is Bruce Scott a Deputy Speaker of the House under 4 PM’s and a Minister under Howard. This seat is most at threat from One Nation and the One Nation candidate here is Mike Kelly but David Littleproud is winning this seat.

Labor 70 Liberals 62 Independents 9 Greens 1

McPherson

A seat that has been contested at every election since 1949. This seat has always been Conservative held. The seat is currently held by Home Affairs Minister Karen Andrews. This seat covers the southern part of the Gold Coast down to the NSW Border. The seats most famous member is Charles Barnes who was minister under 5 PM’s. This seat will not be troubled by the Labor candidate Carl Ungerer.

Labor 70 Liberals 63 Independents 9 Greens 1

Moncrieff

Moncrieff has been contested since 1984 and has only ever been held by the Conservative LNP. The current MP is Angie Bell and the most famous MP is Steve Ciobo who was a Minister under Turnbull and Morrison. The seat of Moncrieff covers the central part of the Gold Coast. The Labor candidate in 2022 is Glen Palmer but they are not going to win this seat.

Labor 70 Liberals 64 Independents 9 Greens 1

Moreton

An original Federation seat, Moreton has been contested at every election since 1901. It was a Liberal seat between 1910 and 1990 and then was a bell-wether seat between 1990 and 2013 when Labor held the seat despite losing the election. The current MP is Graham Perrett. The seats most famous member was Sir James Killen who was minister under 3 PM’s. This seat should see a swing back to Labor at this election which will see off the Liberal Candidate Steven Huang.

Labor 71 Liberals 64 Independents 9 Greens 1

Oxley

Oxley has been contested at every election since 1949. It is a seat that started off as Liberal but since 1961 has voted in a Labor member at every election bar one. The seats current member is Milton Dick and the seats most famous member is Bill Hayden who was Opposition Leader for 6 years. The seat of Oxley covers the Southwestern parts of Brisbane into parts of Ipswich. This election result for this seat shouldn’t be close and the LNP Candidate Kyle McMillian wont win this seat.

Labor 72 Liberals 64 Independents 9 Greens 1

Petrie

This seat was first contested in 1949. Since 1987 it has been a bell-wether seat. The current MP is Luke Howarth. This seat was one of many Queensland seats that swung hard to the LNP in 2019. The seat covers the North of Brisbane. The seats most famous member was Sir Alan Hulmes who was Minister under 5 different PM’s. The Labor candidate in this seat is Mick Denton but I think Luke Howarth will be re-elected in 2022.

Labor 72 Liberals 65 Independents 9 Greens 1

Rankin

A newer seat having only ever been contested since 1984. This seat has only ever been held by Labor. The current member is Jim Chalmers and he is being touted as a future leader of the party. The most famous member however is Dr Craig Emerson who was a Minister under Rudd and Gillard. Rankin covers parts of Brisbane and Logan. The Liberal Candidate is Paul Darwen but he will not win this seat.

Labor 73 Liberals 65 Independents 9 Greens 1

Ryan

This seat has been contested at every election since 1949. It has been held by the Liberals for all bar 8 months of the seats history. The seat is currently held by Julian Simmons. The seats most famous member is John Moore who was a Minister under Fraser and Howard. This seat is based in the western suburbs of Brisbane and is a classic three way contest this time between the LNP, Labor’s Peter Cossar and the Greens Elizabeth Watson-Brown. This is a tough seat to predict but I think the LNP just hold on.

Labor 73 Liberals 66 Independents 9 Greens 1

Wide Bay

An original federation seat, this seat has been contested at every election since 1901. For most of its history the seat has been held by the Conservatives. This seats current MP is Llew O’Brien and the most famous member is Andrew Fisher who was PM on three different occasions. The seat is rural in nature and covers the coast of Queensland just up from Brisbane. The seat is a safe LNP margin and the Labor candidate Geoff Williams will not win this seat.

Labor 73 Liberals 67 Independents 9 Greens 1

Wright

A new seat Wright has been contested at every election since 2010. It has only had one member who is the current MP Scott Buchholz. The seat is rural in nature and covers the area west of the Gold Coast in the Hinterland. Scott Buchholz will easily win this seat over the Labor Candidate Pam McCreadie.

Labor 73 Liberals 68 Independents 9 Greens 1


So my final count has Labor the biggest party on 73 seats, Liberals on 68 and Independents and Greens on 10. I think the Labor Party are favourites to form a minority government. In terms of sensitivity analysis, Labor could probably get to 75 or 76 seats max, the Libs could get as high as 73 and Independents and Greens could probably reach 12 or 13. I guess what I am saying is hung parliament is my favoured outcome and Labor will probably be the largest party.

Victoria and Tasmania Seat Preview for Federal Election

In this blog I will preview and predict how the seats of Victoria and Tasmania will play out on Saturday night. First up is the seats of Victoria.

Victoria

Aston

Aston is a newer seat having only existed since 1984. The most famous member is the current one Alan Tudge, he was a Minister under Malcolm Turnbull and is sort of the Education Minister currently despite some off field problems that he is currently facing. Aston is based in Eastern Melbourne and for most of its history has been a fairly safe Liberal seat. The Labor opponent here is Mary Doyle and she wont trouble Alan Tudge despite his misdemeanours on his personal life.

Labor 15 Liberals 12 Independents 1

Ballarat

The seat that covers the city of Ballarat in Victoria and surrounding areas. This is a federation seat having existed since 1901. This seat has swung between the Conservatives and Labor over the years but the current member Catherine King has turned it into a safe Labor seat. The seats most famous member is Alfred Deakin who was a Prime Minister and Opposition Leader. The Liberal Opponent in this election is Ben Green but he isn’t going to win the seat.

Labor 16 Liberals 12 Independents 1

Bendigo

Bendigo is another federation seat having existed since 1901. It has swung between the major parties in its early history before becoming a fairly safe Labor haven in recent years. The seat covers the area of Bendigo as well as surrounding towns. Bendigo’s most famous member is Billy Hughes who was a PM for the Nationalist party. The Liberal Party Candidate for this seat is Darin Schade but he will not win this seat.

Labor 17 Liberals 12 Independents 1

Bruce

A seat that has existed since 1955, this seat was a Liberal stronghold until 1996 and since then it has only been held by Labor. Bruce is based in the South Eastern Outer Metropolitan area of Melbourne. The current member is Julian Hill and the seats most famous member is Sir Billy Snedden who was opposition leader for three years as well as a speaker of the House. The Liberal Opponent in 2022 is James Moody but he wont win this seat.

Labor 18 Liberals 12 Independents 1

Calwell

Calwell is a very safe Labor seat, having been held by Labor for the entirety of its existence from 1984. The current member is Maria Varnvakinou and she holds the seat by nearly 19%. The seat is based in the North Western Outer Metropolitan area of Melbourne. The Liberal candidate for this seat is Tim Staker-Gunn but he isn’t going to win this seat.

Labor 19 Liberals 12 Independents 1

Casey

This is the first seat that is hard to pick in Victoria. It has existed since 1969 and in its early history swung between the Liberal’s and Labor Party. In recent years it has gradually become entrenched as a Liberal seat albeit a Marginal one with some strong local members possibly inflating the vote. The most famous member is the previous member of Casey Tony Smith who is widely regarded as one of the best Speakers to occupy the chair. Casey is a rural seat covering the outer eastern suburbs of Melbourne to the Dandenong Ranges. The loss of Tony Smith here is a huge loss for the Liberal Party and the new Liberal Candidate is up against Bill Brindle of Labor who also ran in 2019. I think Aaron Vloli of the Liberals will just hold on but this is a 50-50 seat.

Labor 19 Liberals 13 Independents 1

Chisholm

Another seat that is quite difficult to pick. Chisholm has existed since 1949. In its early history it was a solid Liberal seat but in recent history it has swapped between the two parties a great deal. The most famous member of Chisholm is Anna Burke who was the Speaker of the House under Gillard and Rudd. The Current Liberal Member is Gladys Liu and she defied expectations in 2019 by winning the seat for the Liberals when it was not expected. The area covers the Inner Metropolitan Eastern suburb of Melbourne and that has traditionally been more Liberal favoured but Labor are a real show here this time despite the large Chinese presence in this seat. Carina Garland is the Labor Candidate for this seat and I think she will win although it is going to be close.

Labor 20 Liberals 13 Independents 1

Cooper

Cooper is a new seat that took over from the historic seat of Batman. Cooper is currently held by Ged Kearney. The main threat to Ged in this seat is the Greens but they absolutely tanked at the last election. Cooper is the electorate in the Northern Suburbs of Melbourne. The Greens opponent is Celeste Liddle who is a long way from winning this seat.

Labor 21 Liberals 13 Independents 1

Corangamite

A Federation seat, this seat has existed since 1901. Corangamite is a rural seat and covers the the southern suburbs of Geelong and surrounding suburbs that are rural in nature. This seat flipped between the majors early on in its history, then it became a Conservative Stronghold and now it flips between the two parties again. The most famous member was Geoffrey Street who was a Minister under three different Prime Ministers. Libby Coker is the current member and holds the seat by 1.1%. The Liberal opponent is Stephanie Asher and theoretically could win this seat, if the swing is on in Victoria as the polls suggest then Libby Coker should hold on.

Labor 22 Liberals 13 Independents 1

Corio

Another Federation seat, this seat has existed since 1901. Corio has always been based in Geelong. This seat in the early history has flipped between the two parties but in recent history has become a stronger hold for the Labor Party. The current member is Richard Marles who is the Deputy Opposition Leader to Anthony Albanese. The most famous member of Corio is Gordon Scholes who was Speaker of the House under Whitlam and Fraser as well as a Minister under Bob Hawke. The Liberal Opponent in Corio is Manish Patel but he isn’t going to win the seat.

Labor 23 Liberals 13 Independents 1

Deakin

This seat has existed since 1937. The seat has been Liberal or Conservative held for most of its history. It has gradually become more Marginal though and Labor are looking at this seat as a possible gain if they are having a good night. It takes in the Eastern Suburbs of Melbourne. Michael Sukkar is the incumbent member and he is currently the most famous member the seat has had being a Minister under Scott Morrison. Matt Gregg is the Labor Opponent in this seat and he maybe a chance if the Labor Party are having a good night, I believe the Liberals will win this seat though.

Labor 23 Liberals 14 Independents 1

Dunkley

Dunkley is a fairly new seat and has been around since 1984. It is based in the Outer Metropolitan South Eastern suburbs of Melbourne. Over it’s history it has flipped between the two major parties and it was a redistribution at the last election that cost the Liberals this seat. The seats most famous member is Bruce Billson who was a minister under Howard and Abbott. This seat is currently held by Peta Murphy and her opponent is Sharn Coombes. This seat is marginal but I think Labor will hold on.

Labor 24 Liberals 14 Independents 1

Flinders

A federation seat, having existed since 1901. Flinders for the most part has been Conservative hold. The most famous member was Stanley Bruce who was a Conservative Prime Minister. The Health Minister Greg Hunt is not recontesting this election and that makes this seat despite its margin a seat Labor will be targeting. This seat is a rural one covering the Outer Southern Suburbs of the Mornington Peninsula. The Liberal Candidate for this election is Zoe McKenzie and she is facing a Labor opponent in Surbhi Snowball. I think the Liberals will just hold on but it is lineball.

Labor 24 Liberals 15 Independents 1

Fraser

This is a new seat, having been contested for the first time in 2019. The seat of Fraser covers the Inner Western Suburbs of Melbourne. This is a safe Labor seat that is currently held by Daniel Mulino by close to 19%. The Liberal opponent in this seat is David Wood but he has no chance of winning this seat.

Labor 25 Liberals 15 Independents 1

Gellibrand

This seat has existed since 1949 and has always been held by the Labor Party. The seat takes in the South Western Suburbs of Melbourne. The seats current member is Tim Watts and the most famous member is Nicola Roxon who was a Minister under Rudd and Gillard. The Liberal Opponent in this seat is Monica Clark but she will not win this seat.

Labor 26 Liberals 15 Independents 1

Gippsland

A rural seat in Eastern Victoria, this seat has existed since Federation in 1901. This seat has never been held by Labor, one of only two seats in Victoria to have this honour that have existed since Federation. The current member is Darren Chester and he comfortably holds this seat. The most famous member is Peter Nixon who was minister for five PM’s. The Labor candidate for this seat is Jannette Langley and she will not win this seat.

Labor 26 Liberals 16 Independents 1

Goldstein

A seat that has existed since 1984. This seat has never been won by Labor, only ever being held by the Liberals. Goldstein is based in the Inner Southern Suburbs of Melbourne. This seat is currently held by Tim Wilson and the most famous member is Andrew Robb who was a Minister under Howard, Abbott and Turnbull. This seat however is most at risk from the Independents this time, the Independent here being Zoe Daniel. I think she is on track to win this seat which would be a blow to the moderate branch of the Liberal Party.

Labor 26 Liberals 16 Independents 2

Gorton

Gorton has existed since 2004, it replaced the abolished seat of Burke. The only seats member is Brendan O’Connor who has been a minister under Rudd and Gillard. The seat covers the Western Suburbs of Melbourne. The Liberal Opponent is John Fletcher but he will not win this seat.

Labor 27 Liberals 16 Independents 2

Hawke

Hawke is a brand new seat in Victoria to be contested for the first time in 2022. It is another strong Labor Voting area in Western Melbourne. The Labor Candidate is Sam Rae and the Liberal Candidate is Enamul Haque. Labor will easily win this seat.

Labor 28 Liberals 16 Independents 2

Higgins

Higgins is a Blue ribboned Liberal seat which has existed since 1949. It has only ever been a Liberal seat but is trending to the left of the spectrum. Higgins has had two former Liberal PM’s in Harold Holt and John Gorton. The current Liberal MP is Katie Allen. The Labor candidate is Michelle Anandah-Rajah and the Greens member is Sonya Semmens. The seat of Higgins cover the inner south eastern suburbs of Melbourne. This is a hard seat to predict, but I think the Liberals with a Sophomore swing will just hold on here.

Labor 28 Liberals 17 Independents 2

Holt

Holt has been in existence since 1969. In it’s early years it flipped between the two major parties but since 1980 it has been solidly held by Labor. The member for Holt currently Anthony Byrne is retiring at this election. The most famous member for Holt is Michael Duffy who was a minister under Hawke and Keating. The seat of Holt covers the area south east of Melbourne. The Labor candidate for Holt this time is Cassandra Fernando and the Liberal Candidate is Ranj Perera. Labor will easily win this seat.

Labor 29 Liberals 17 Independents 2

Hotham

Hotham has been contested since 1969. It was originally a safe Liberal seat but since 1980 has gradually become a safer Labor seat and at this election has become an ultra safe Labor seat. The seat of Hotham is based in the South Eastern Suburbs of the inner Metropolitan area of Melbourne. Hotham is currently held by Claire O’Neill and the seats most famous member was Simon Crean who was Opposition Leader from 2001-2003 and was a minister under 4 PM’s. The Liberal candidate in this seat is Savitri Bevinakoppa but they are not winning the seat off Labor.

Labor 30 Liberals 17 Independents 2

Indi

A rural seat in Victoria that is a Federation seat having been contested at every election since 1901. Indi is based in Wodonga and Wangaratta and surrounding towns. Indi has mostly been Conservative held since 1930 but since 2013 has become an Independent seat won first by Cathy McGowan and then succeeded by Helen Haines albeit with a swing against her. This seat has most famously been held by John McEwen who was a Minister under 4 PM’s. The Liberal Candidate is Ross Lymann and the Nats candidate is Liz Fisher but I truly believe Helen Haines will hold on here.

Labor 30 Liberals 17 Independents 3

Isaacs

A seat that has been contested since 1969. The seat flipped between Labor and the Liberal’s in its early history but has been Labor held since 1996 albeit on a marginal margin for most of that time. Isaacs is based in the South Eastern Suburbs of Melbourne. Mark Dreyfus is the current member and he is the Attorney General in waiting, his Liberal Opponent in 2022 is Robbie Beaton but the Labor Party will hold this seat.

Labor 31 Liberals 17 Independents 3

Jagajaga

This is a seat that has only been Labor held since its creation in 1984. A seat in the Northeastern Suburbs of Melbourne, the seat is currently held by Kate Thwaites. The seats most famous member was Jenny Macklin who was Deputy Opposition Leader from 2001 to 2006 and then a Minister under Gillard and Rudd. This seat is being contested by the Liberals this time by Sahil Jamar but Labor will easily win this seat.

Labor 32 Liberals 17 Independents 3

Kooyong

Another Federation seat that has been contested since 1901. This seat is the other Victorian seat that since Federation has never been won by a Labor Party member. Kooyong is currently held by Josh Frydenberg the Deputy Liberal Leader and the most famous member is Sir Robert Menzies. This seat is in the inner eastern suburbs of Melbourne and is gradually following the trend of inner city seats of swinging to the left. Last election Julian Burnside a Greens Candidate pushed Josh here but this time it is an Independent Monique Ryan who is pushing to take the seat. This is a lineball seat and the Independent could well win this seat, this seat has been sandbagged the hell out of and I think Josh Frydenberg will just hold on.

Labor 32 Liberals 18 Independents 3

La Trobe

This seat was first contested in 1949. This seat covers the outer eastern and outer southeastern suburbs of Melbourne. This seat is currently held by Jason Wood and has most famously been held by Richard Casey who was a Minister under Menzies. Labor would be eyeing this seat off on a good night, however a recent redistribution has made this seat slightly safer for the Liberal Party. The Labor Candidate is Abi Kumar but I don’t think they will win this seat.

Labor 32 Liberals 19 Independents 3

Lalor

A seat that has mostly voted Labor since it was created in 1949. This seat covers the outer western suburbs of Melbourne. This seat is currently held by Joanne Ryan and the most famous member is Julia Gillard who was PM from 2010 to 2013. The Liberal Candidate for this seat is Ravi Gaddipati and he’s not going to win this seat.

Labor 33 Liberals 19 Independents 3

Macnamara

This seat is a new seat from 2019 but is a rename of the old seat of Melbourne Ports which is an original Federation seat. Josh Burns is the current member for this seat for Labor. This seat is in the Southern inner suburbs of Melbourne and is a classic 3 way contest. Usually the Liberal member finishes first but the combined Labor and Greens vote is sufficiently high enough to ensure Labor win the seat. The Liberal Candidate in this seat is Colleen Harkin and Steph Hogins-May is the Greens candidate, I think Labor will win this seat again as the Greens would have to poll quite a bit higher to win the seat.

Labor 34 Liberals 19 Independents 3

Mallee

This seat has been contested since 1949 and has only ever been won by the Country or Nationals Party. This seat is currently held by Anne Webster who has held the seat for one term. The seat covers the rural western parts of Victoria including Mildura, Horsham and surrounding towns. The Labor candidate again in this seat is Carole Hart but the Nats will easily win this seat.

Labor 34 Liberals 20 Independents 3

Maribyrnong

This seat is nearly a Federation seat having been contested at every election since 1906. Since 1969 the seat has only been Labor held. Maribyrnong covers the inner north western suburbs of Melbourne. The most famous member is the Incumbent Bill Shorten who was Labor Opposition leader from 2013-2019. The Liberal Candidate here is Mira D’Silva but this will be another easy Labor hold.

Labor 35 Liberals 20 Independents 3

McEwen

McEwen is a fairly new seat having only been contested since 1984. The seat has mostly been marginal with Liberal holding it continuously between 1996 to 2010 but other than that it has been Labor held. The seats currently held by Rob Mitchell of the Labor Party but it has most famously been held by Fran Bailey a Minister under Howard. This seat is rural in nature and covers the area directly North of Melbourne. This seat is being contested by the Liberal Candidate Richard Welch but Labor will easily win this seat.

Labor 36 Liberals 20 Independents 3

Melbourne

Melbourne is a federation seat, having first been contested in 1901. Melbourne covers the city centre of Melbourne. It is currently held by the Greens Leader Adam Bandt but has previously been Labor held for all bar one term from 1901 to 2010. Arthur Calwell is the most famous member for Melbourne having been the Opposition Leader from 1960 to 1967 and Minister for 3 PM’s. This seat just gets Greener by the election and the Liberals finished second in front of Labor last election, so neither Keir Paterson or James Damchen will win this seat.

Labor 36 Liberals 20 Independents 3 Greens 1

Menzies

A seat that has existed since 1984, the seat has only ever voted in Liberal members. The seat of Menzies was held by Kevin Andrews for 31 years but he lost pre-selection to Keith Wolahan. Menzies is based in the North Eastern Suburbs of Melbourne. This is a seat that Labor would dream of winning and they have pre-selected Naomi Oakley. I think the Liberals will win this seat however.

Labor 36 Liberals 21 Independents 3 Greens 1

Monash

Monash is a rural seat in Victoria covering the South Eastern Parts of Victoria although to the west of Melbourne. It is a new named seat from 2019 taking over the old seat of McMillan. Russell Broadbent is the incumbent member and he is a more moderate member of the Liberal Party. The Labor candidate this time is Jessica O’Donnell but Russell Broadbent should hold this seat.

Labor 36 Liberals 22 Independents 3 Greens 1

Nicholls

Nicholls is a newly named seat from 2019 of the old seat of Murray. The seat of Murray and now Nicholls has always been held the Conservative party. The seat of Nicholls covers the North Western part of Victoria and takes in the major town of Shepparton. Damien Drum was the member for Nicholls but he is retiring at this election and the Independent Rob Priestly is a real chance of taking this seat. The Nationals member for this seat is Sam Birrell and he is going to have his work cut out to keep this seat. I think the Nationals will hang on in this seat but it will be close.

Labor 36 Liberals 23 Independents 3 Greens 1

Scullin

A seat that has been contested since 1969, the seat has always been Labor held. It is located in the Outer Northern Suburbs of Melbourne. The two most famous members of Scullin are the Father-Son duo of Harry Jenkins Snr and Harry Jenkins Jnr. The seat is currently held by Andrew Giles by close to 22%. The Liberal Candidate for this seat is Virosh Perera but they are not winning this seat.

Labor 37 Liberals 23 Independents 3 Greens 1

Wannon

A federation seat having been contested at every election since 1901. This seat has been won by Labor and the Conservatives until 1955 but after then has only been held by the Liberal Party. Wannon has most famously been held by former PM Malcolm Fraser and is currently held by Dan Tehan. The seat is based in the South West rural state of the state. The Labor candidate for this seat is Gilbert Wilson but he’s not going to win this seat.

Labor 37 Liberals 24 Independents 3 Greens 1

Wills

Wills is a seat that was first contested in 1949. In that time it has almost always been won by Labor. The current member is Peter Khalil and the most famous member is Bob Hawke who was PM of Australia. The seat covers the Northern suburbs of Melbourne. The Greens are closer to winning this seat than the Liberals but I don’t think the Greens candidate Sarah Jefford will win this seat.

Labor 38 Liberals 24 Independents 3 Greens 1

Tasmania

Bass

This is a very tight election to call, Bass has been contested at every election since 1903. In recent years Bass has swung between each party like a yoyo and Bass will be another close seat to watch on Election night. Bass is currently held by Bridget Archer by about 0.5% and that if the swing is on to Labor should see Labor win this seat. Archer has been intriguing to watch in that she has crossed the floor several times on social issues which might see her hold on here. Bass has also swung to the Liberal Party at recent state elections. The most famous member is the Labor member Lance Barnard who was Deputy PM under Gough Whitlam. This seat covers the North Eastern area of Tasmania including Launceston. The Labor candidate for this election is former Labor member Ross Hart and I think the national swing to Labor will ultimately net him this seat.

Labor 39 Liberals 24 Independents 3 Greens 1

Braddon

Braddon has been contested under its current name since 1955, before that it was the division of Darwin from 1903 to 1955. The most famous member for Braddon is Ray Groom who was a Minister under Fraser. The seat of Braddon is to the North West and Western Rural areas of Tasmania. The seat is currently held by Gavin Pearce of the Liberal Party. This is a marginal seat, albeit not as marginal as Bass. Chris Lynch is the Labor candidate here and I really believe that Labor will win this seat.

Labor 40 Liberals 24 Independents 3 Greens 1

Clark

The seat of Clark is a new seat that was first contested as this name in 2019. The seat was previously known as Denison and it has been held by Andrew Wilkie since 2010. Andrew Wilkie has gradually built a very strong base in this seat and should hold this seat until he retires now. Clark covers the main city centre of Hobart. Simon Davis is the Labor Candidate but this is Andrew Wilkie’s seat.

Labor 40 Liberals 24 Independents 4 Greens 1

Franklin

This seat has been contested since 1903. The seat is currently held by Julie Collins and has been Labor held consistently from 1993 by Labor. The seats most famous member is William McWilliams who was leader of the Country Party from 1920-1921. The seat covers the eastern suburbs of Hobart and also the southern part of the state. The Liberal Candidate for this seat is Kristy Johnson but Labor will comfortably win this seat.

Labor 41 Liberals 24 Independents 4 Greens 1

Lyons

This seat has been contested under the current name since 1984 but has been contested as Wilmot since 1903. This seat has been held by Labor for all bar one term since 1993. The Labor Party hold this seat on a marginal base and the current member is Brian Mitchell. This seat covers the rural area of the centre of Tasmania. The Liberal Candidate is Susie Bower this time and she hasn’t been disendorsed which is a great start compared to last time. I think Labor should just win this seat but it will be close.

Labor 42 Liberals 24 Independents 4 Greens 1

UK Council Election Analysis and Previewing the West, South and North of Australia seats

It’s been a busy week for Australian Politics as we head into the second last week of the campaign before the big event next Saturday. Meanwhile in UK Politics, the fallout continues as a result of the Local Council elections. A lot of people predicted that a bad night for the Tories would be the precipice for a leadership change to a new Prime Minister but so far that has not eventuated. First I will talk about UK Politics in this election and then I will predict the WA, SA and NT states of the election campaign. So, in the UK the bad night for the Conservatives that a lot of people predicted did eventuate. In the end there was a net loss of 485 councillors for the Tories on the night, with those losses being particularly bad in London, but they also lost ground in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. The Labour Party had a reasonably good night, gaining 108 Councillors although that only translated to a net gain of 5 council wards. The Liberal Democrats were the big winners of the night gaining 224 councillors and taking control of a number of councils. In Scotland the Tories were hit hard to the point where they are no longer the highest opposition in the country, meanwhile the Scottish National Party had another good night and are increasingly stable in their hold on power even after 15 years in power. In Northern Ireland the night belonged to Sinn Fein who are now the largest party by number of Councils in the country. That is a problem for the UK PM Boris Johnson who now faces Independence calls from two fronts, that being Scotland and now Northern Ireland as Sinn Fein are in favour of reuniting an Independent Northern Ireland from Ireland. As for the polls, the Labour Party are currently in front by 3-5% which is a solid lead for the Labour Party but not insurmountable. The interest currently in UK is still Partygate, will the Tories have any further fines occur from their parties and what Political influence will come from the allegations of Sir Keir Starmer also having an illegal party during the Pandemic. Certainly if Starmer is consistent with his calls for Boris Johnson to resign then the calls for him to resign should also happen. At the end of the day the election is still 3 years away and to be quite frank a lot can happen in that time.

Now I will move onto predicting the election for Australia this coming Saturday. First up is the state of Western Australia where Labor are on track to win at least 2 seats.

Brand

First we have the seat of Brand, which is an outer Metropolitan seat in Perth. The seat of Brand has existed since 1984 and has always been Labor held, most famously by Opposition Leader Kim Beazley. The current MP for Brand is Madeline King and despite a swing against her at the last election it is still a safe Labor seat. Given the state of WA is currently expecting a large swing to Labor next Saturday I would expect Madeline King to easily hold this seat against Liberal Opponent Peter Hudson.

Labor 1

Burt

Burt is a new seat which was formed in 2016. Matt Keogh is the seats only member and he holds the seat by 5.5% after a swing away from Labor at the last election. The electorate is based in the outer metropolitan area of Perth. This seat is going to be easily retained by Labor against the Liberal opponent David Goode

Labor 2

Canning

Canning is a seat that has been around since 1949. It has until recently been a seat that swung with government fluctuating between Liberal and Labor, in recent years it has firmed as a safe Liberal seat. Andrew Hastie a Conservative Hawkish Liberal is the current member for Canning but the most famous member for Canning is George Gear a Labor Minister under Paul Keating. Canning is an outer Metropolitan seat based around Perth. At one stage this was a seat considered in play despite it’s 11.3% margin but the swing to Labor in Perth has moderated enough that I think the Libs will hold this seat pretty safely against the Labor candidate Amanda Hunt.

Labor 2 Liberals 1

Cowan

This is a newer seat having been only first contested in 1984. This seat is currently held by Anne Aly and covers the outer metropolitan areas of Perth. Anne bucked the trend in 2019 in being one of the seats that picked up a 2PP Labor swing to it. The Liberal opponent in Cowan is Vince Connally and on paper the margin of 0.9% would seem gettable. However the swing being shown to Labor in this state should see Anne pick up a 3rd term in this seat.

Labor 3 Liberals 1

Curtin

A safe haven for years for some of the most prominent Liberals in the state, Curtin has existed since 1949. The most prominent member for Curtin was Paul Hasluck who was a Minister under several PM’s and then retired to become the Governor General of Australia. Curtin takes in the area of Western Perth which is an affluent area. Celia Hammond is the Incumbent MP taking over from Julie Bishop and she faces a tough independent in Kate Chaney. This is the first tough seat to call as Kate Chaney could well win this seat, ultimately I believe Celia Hammond will just hold on.

Labor 3 Liberals 2

Durack

Durack is a newish seat having only been created since 2010. The current member is the Defence Industry Minister Melissa Price. Durack is a rural seat and covers the largest area by land area of any seat in Australia at more than 1 million square kilometres. This is safe Liberal Territory and Labor’s Jeremiah Riley will not challenge in this seat.

Labor 3 Liberals 3

Forrest

A seat that since it’s creation in 1922 been a Coalition strong hold save for 3 elections. It covers the rural region south west of Perth. It is currently held by Nola Marino the Chief Government Whip under Turnbull and Morrison. The most famous member is Gordon Freeth who was a minister under several Prime Ministers. This seat will be comfortably held by Nola Marino against the Labor Candidate Bronwen English.

Labor 3 Liberals 4

Fremantle

An Inner Metropolitan seat and a seat that has existed since Federation, Fremantle at least since the first few terms has been a Labor stronghold with a number of Labor luminaries holding the seat. The seat is currently held by Josh Wilson and it’s most famous member is Former Prime Minister John Curtin. The Liberal Opponent in this election is Bill Koul but this is a safe Labor hold.

Labor 4 Liberals 4

Hasluck

A seat that is fairly new, having only been first contested in 2001. Hasluck is currently held by Ken Wyatt who is the seats most famous seat holder being the first Indigenous person to hold the office of Indigenous Minister. This seat covers the inner Eastern Metropolitan areas of Perth and was at one stage considered a definite Liberal loss, that hope for Labor has waned in recent times and now I think Ken Wyatt will just hang on against Labor opponent Tania Lawrence.

Labor 4 Liberals 5

Moore

The seat of Moore is a reasonably safe Liberal stronghold throughout the years and was created in 1949. The current member is Ian Goodenough and despite being a Liberal Stronghold has never had a Minister stand in this seat. The seat covers the Northern Outer Metropolitan areas of Perth. The Labor opponent in this seat is Tom French and again early in the campaign this seat was potentially in play, however that threat has now subsided and Liberals should hold this seat fairly comfortably.

Labor 4 Liberals 6

O’Connor

Another massive rural seat that covers most of the rural areas of WA not covered by Durack. This seat has been contested since 1980 and it’s currently held by Rick Wilson. The seats most famous member is Wilson Tuckey who was a minister under John Howard and was WA’s answer to Bob Katter in terms of eccentricity. The Labor opponent in this seat is Shaneane Weldon but the Liberals will safely hold this seat.

Labor 4 Liberals 7

Pearce

Pearce is a fairly new seat having only been contested since 1990. In that time it has only ever voted in Liberal Candidates. However a Redistribution and then a troubled former Member having to retire in disgrace has made this a seat very much in play for Labor on Saturday night. The most famous member of Pearce is Christian Porter who was once touted as a future PM and served in the senior portfolio’s of Attorney General under Turnbull and Morrison. The Labor Candidate for Pearce is Tracey Roberts and she is up against a woman in Linda Aitkens. I think this is trending back to Liberal throughout the campaign and could go either way on election night but Labor deserve to be favourites here.

Labor 5 Liberals 7

Perth

A Federation seat that covers this Inner Metropolitan area of Perth. The current member is Patrick Gormann and despite the Liberals usually attracting the highest 1st preference vote here, the seat has been fairly safely held by Labor since 1983. That is thanks to an ever increasing Greens vote that hit nearly 19% at the last election. The most famous member for Perth is Walter Nairn who was a Conservative Speaker for three different Prime Ministers. This is a seat that would be in play normally but the Labor Party vote should increase here this time and be a safe hold.

Labor 6 Liberals 7

Swan

A Federation seat that was conservative in nature at it’s beginning but then flipped between the two major parties in more recent history although has been held by retiring member Steve Irons for 15 years. The most famous member for Swan was Sir John Forrest who was Treasurer of the Country on four different occasions. This is a marginal seat even at a low point for Labor and with a retiring popular member this is an obvious pickup for Labor candidate Zaneta Mascharenas against Liberal Candidate Kristy McSweeney.

Labor 7 Liberals 7

Tangney

A seat that has mostly been Liberal held since its creation in 1974, the Seat of Tangney is currently held by former State Director and close Morrison confident Ben Morton. The seat’s most famous member is Darryl Williams who was a Minister in the Howard years. This seat is based in the Inner Metropolitan area of Southern Perth. The Labor candidate in this seat is Sam Lim but this will be a comfortable Liberal hold

Labor 7 Liberals 8

South Australian Seats

Adelaide

Adelaide is nearly a Federation seat having been contested at every election since 1903. For most of its history it has been a Labor seat and is currently held by Steve Georganas. The seat covers the main central point of Adelaide and surrounding suburbs. The most famous member is Kate Ellis who was a Minister under Rudd and Gillard. The seat is a safe Labor seat and will stay that way after this election.

Labor 8 Liberals 8

Barker

A safe as nails Liberal seat that has been Liberal held since its creation in 1903. The seat is currently held by Tony Pasin by 18.3%. The most famous member for Barker is Archie Cameron who was leader of the Country Party for a year as well as Speaker of the House under Menzies. The seat covers the rural region of SA from the Riverland to the South Eastern town of Mount Gambier. The Labor candidate here is Mark Braes but this is a safe Liberal hold

Labor 8 Liberals 9

Boothby

A Liberal stronghold since 1949 and indeed a fairly comfortable hold since 1903. Boothby covers the South Western areas around Adelaide. The current member Nicole Flint is retiring at this election and really this is the only seat in play in the state as a traditional Labor vs Liberal contest anyway, more on Grey in a little bit. The most famous member for Boothby was Sir John McLeay Snr who was speaker of the house under Holt and Menzies. The two candidates at this election are Rachel Swift and Louise Miller-Frost. This is the seat that every election Labor talk about picking up and invariably they fall short of gaining. However this appears to be the election that Labor will finally buck the trend with Liberal Insiders giving up on Boothby to sandbag Sturt.

Labor 9 Liberals 9

Grey

Another original seat from 1903, this seat has been safely in Liberal hands since 1993 as the Rural mining towns of the north have slowed and this seat has become more of a Conservative strong hold. This seat was of little interest to me until the recent state election where Independent Liz Habermann picked up a swing of over 24% in the seat of Flinders which covers a nice chunk of this seat. Rowan Ramsay is the incumbent member of this seat but Liz Habermann has been endorsed by the previous Liberal member Barry Wakelin adding a strong voice to the Independent push in this seat. Grey covers the rural areas north of Adelaide up to the borders of WA, NT, NSW and Queensland. The most famous member of this seat is Alexander Poneyton who was a minister under Billy Hughes. This is a tough electorate to pick but the lack of time for Liz to campaign in this seat backing off a state run should see Liberals retain this seat.

Labor 9 Liberals 10

Hindmarsh

Hindmarsh is a seat created in 1903 and for most of its history has been Labor held. The seat covers the western suburbs of Adelaide. The seat is currently held by Mark Butler. The most famous member is Norman Makin who was Speaker of the House during the Scullin years and was minister for several Labor PM’s. The Liberal candidate for this seat is Anna Finizio but she wont trouble Mark Butler

Labor 10 Liberals 10

Kingston

The outer Southern Suburbs of Adelaide seat this seat has been contested at every election since 1949. The seat has been held by Amanda Rishworth of Labor since 2007 and has increasingly become safe Labor territory. The seats most famous member is Gordon Bilney who was a minister under Hawke and Keating. The Liberal Opponent at this election is Kathleen Bourne but she wont win this seat.

Labor 11 Liberals 10

Makin

A seat that was created for the 1984 election, Makin covers the North to Northeastern parts of Adelaide. Makin has mostly been Labor held save for the John Howard years when Trish Draper held the seat. The most famous member for Makin is Peter Duncan who was a Minister under Bob Hawke. The seat is currently held by Tony Zappia and he should easily defeat Liberal opponent Alan Howard-Jones

Labor 12 Liberals 10

Mayo

Once the crown of the Liberals and a fairly safe Liberal seat at that since its creation in 1984, the seat is now held by Rebekha Sharkie and the Libs have been throwing a lot of resources to win it back from the Centre Alliance since it was won from them. The seat is a rural one covering the Adelaide Hills in the east all the way to Kangaroo Islands in the south. The most famous member was Alexander Downer who was briefly Opposition Leader of the Liberals and was the Foreign Affairs Minister under Howard. The Liberal Candidate for this electorate is Allison Bluck and she suffered the humiliation of trying to claim credit for work she did not do. As a result of that this will be a safe retain for Rebekha Sharkie.

Labor 12 Liberals 10 Independents 1

Spence

A new seat having first been contested in 2019 taking in the old seat of Wakefield. The seat has only had one member namely Nick Champion who retired from Federal Politics to take up the safer State Seat of Taylor. This seat covers the outer Northern Suburbs of Adelaide and has increasingly voted Labor as the seat gets more family dwellings in the area and the seat has become less rural. Matt Burnell should comfortably win this seat over Liberal Candidate Shawn Lock

Labor 13 Liberals 10 Independents 1

Sturt

The inner Metropolitan seat to the East of Adelaide, Sturt has been contested since 1949. Sturt for most of its iteration has been a small L Liberal seat, and has most famously been held by Christopher Pyne who was a minister under Howard, Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison. The current member for Sturt is Jamie Stevens a former chief of staff to Steven Marshall and he picked up a small swing to himself in 2019. Stevens is facing a tough challenge this time from Labor candidate Sonja Baram. This seat is lineball and Liberals have moved resources from Boothby to this seat to try and sandbag the seat from a shock Labor win. I think Steven’s will just hold on.

Labor 13 Liberals 11 Independents 1

Northern Territory

Lingiari

This is one of two Northern Territory seats, this seat covers the region not covered in Solomon, so the rural parts of NT as well as Alice Springs and Katherine. This seat has been held by Labor’s Warren Snowden since 2001, with Snowden previously being the member for Northern Territory before then. This seat with the retirement of Snowden is definitely in play with the Liberal’s preselecting former Alice Springs Mayor Damien Ryan. Labor have for their part selected Marion Scrymgour who is one time Deputy Leader of the Labor Party for the Territory Labor Party. I would think a 5.5% would be too much for the Country Liberals to pull in but this is a seat to watch, especially with the unpopularity of Michael Gunner.

Labor 14 Liberals 11 Independent 1

Solomon

The second of the NT seats, this seat has been contested since the 2001 election. This seat covers the area of Darwin and surrounding towns like Palmerston. This seat has flipped regularly between the two major parties since its creation and is currently held by Luke Gosling on a 3% margin. This seat may well be harder to flip of the two simply because the incumbent member is not retiring and seems popular. The Country Liberal Party have preselected Tina MacFarlane who has twice ran for Lingiari and failed. This is a lineball seat and the unpopularity of the NT government may hit home here but I think Labor should hold.

Labor 15 Liberals 11 Independent 1

Thanks for reading my blog, stay tuned in the next few days as I predict how Victoria and Tasmania will play out.

USA Politics – The end of Roe vs Wade?

I was going to write about Australian Politics today and talk about Anthony Albanese settling the ship after a messy first week and that is reflected in the polls which seem stubbornly stuck at around 53-47 to Labor. Instead of that, I will be talking about USA Politics where a lot is currently going on. First of all, there’s the leaked news from a Supreme Court memo that says the Supreme Court is planning to strike down the Roe vs Wade Abortion decision. That’s tricky because Abortion laws have up until recently been shown to be popular on the whole with the American public as long as there are restrictions in place so it is not an easy decision to do. For Trump supporters and Republicans as a whole, this news will come as a moment of joy as for some people the only reason they supported Trump’s election at all was that they thought he would stack the Bench with Conservatives and then they would then strike down Abortion Laws. The intriguing thing is that there’s not much the House or Senate can do to pass the Roe decision into law as because of the filibuster provision such a motion would fail to get the 60 votes required. I think states have already seen the writing on the wall on this issue to some degree as the Republican States have already tried to make Abortion harder to access while the Democratic States have tried to make Abortion easier to access as a result of the Republican’s moves. As a male I find it somewhat hard to have a view on this issue, however, I would make a few points: Firstly, It’s a common fact that when something is made illegal it just pushes people who are in a desperate situation to do more irrational things. Secondly, Abortion may be evil for some people based on their beliefs and that’s okay, but if that’s the case then why are Republicans and right-wingers on the whole in favour of kids having guns to arm themselves in schools, which is killing as many if not more children. For me, the interesting flashpoint will be what happens at the midterms if this Roe decision is overturned, as a rule, the issue of Abortion is more of a vote decider for Republicans than it is for Democrats. That is changing though and this is a galvanising issue for those on the Left and moderates of the Right too. The last point on this issue is that this is a change was it to occur that would impact poorer women more than richer people as it is poorer people who are more likely to end up having an abortion in today’s society. Again I think the big issue here is Education, I don’t see the Republicans who are advocating for an Abortion ban out there prepared to make monetary investments in woman’s health rights. Now onto the Primaries that were held last night our time. It was a great night for Republicans endorsed by Trump who got 11 out of the 12 contenders at least and it may even end up being all 12 of the Trump endorsements will get elected. When you combine that with the fact that the Republicans are still looking good to take back the House after the midterm elections then it’s a pretty grim night for democracy. The reason I say that is because the two most Prominent Republicans who won their primary after being endorsed by Trump both believe that the 2020 election was rigged. At the moment Joe Biden is just under -10% approval to disapproval ratings and talk has again ramped up about who the candidate will be should Biden decide to not run. Kamala Harris is an option still but she has even worse numbers approval wise than Biden and she hasn’t lived up to the grand expectations that were given to her when she took on the role of Vice Presidency.

Thanks for reading my blog, stay tuned at the end of the week as I analyse the UK Local Council Elections.

The Federal Campaign 1 week in and the SA Federal Senate Race

It’s been a shocker of a start to the Election Campaign for the Labor Party to start the week and then it was a bad end of the week for the Liberal Party. The campaign started with Anthony Albanese not knowing the Unemployment figure, that alone is not such a big deal, these gotcha moments are bad for politics but it fits the narrative that Anthony Albanese is weak on Economics. This isn’t helped by the fact that Anthony Albanese has only ever been in the Infrastructure Portfolio, he hasn’t broadened his horizons by holding a different portfolio that might have sharpened his knowledge in other areas. Anthony Albanese’s bad week continued with more gaffes, firstly on the costing of his Aged Care Policy and also on the Health Care Clinics policy which is also going to cost an arm and a leg. Labor then finally finished the trifecta of gaffes by making a few misspeaks on Asylum Seeker Policy. Now I don’t think that’s such a big deal because Asylum Seekers do not rank as a big policy issue at the moment, rightly or wrongly I think the vast majority of the Public thinks the problem has been fixed and so it’s out of mind. I am surprised that National Security has not played a bigger role in the campaign so far, certainly, Ukraine and Russia is still a big global issue but I can only assume that because it has not directly affected the people apart from rising Inflation which makes it more of an Economic Issue at this point. Now if the War were to spread outside of Ukraine and boots on the ground were involved then it would become an issue of National Security but given Russia’s struggles in Invading Ukraine to this point, I can’t see them spreading the War just yet. So far I have been harsh on the Labor Party and fair enough, they have had a stinker of a week, however, the Coalition has struggled at times too. The biggest issue of the week for the Coalition is the lack of a Federal ICAC. That was raised as a broken promise to the PM and he shrugged it off saying we did have a model of a Federal ICAC on the board but Labor wouldn’t pass it. I think the Coalition has taken a gamble that they would only focus their attention in this campaign on the Economy and Cost of Living Pressures and let everything else be damned, they know that risks them seats to blue teal Independents but they reckon by focussing wholeheartedly on the Economy that they can offset those losses in other electorates. One seat they won’t be picking up is the seat of Warringah as their captains pick this week Katherine Deves was found to make several transphobic and bigoted comments. That will go down like a lead balloon in a moderate seat. Scott Morrison has so far stood by the candidate saying he would stick by his candidate as he would not join in the pile on. What this does show again though is the Factions of NSW Liberal Politics. For those who don’t remember, the Liberals struggled to pick candidates for several key seats and so they intervened in the seats to introduce captains picks. This will cost the seat of Warringah and other moderate Liberal seats possibly but again Scott Morrison is picking to make this an issue in the electorate to then try and win outer suburban seats. What I am seeing this election is an Americanisation of Australian Politics in that Conservatives are chasing if not running after rural outer suburban uneducated voters at the cost of richer more city-dwelling voters. It happened to a degree in 2019 but it seems this time to be happening on steroids. The last thing that became news this week was Alan Tudge continuing as Education Minister post the election even after standing aside as Education Minister. It’s a clear wink wink deal to say that a key factional ally has just been sin-binned through the campaign to try and avoid scrutiny until after the election when he will be returned as Education Minister. What happened today that will likely now start the next scare campaign is the announcement of the next Health Minister. Anne Ruston has been declared to be the next Health Minister and that prompted Labor to immediately say that Liberals were going to privatise Medicare. That’s a gross lie that is founded on a kernel of truth which was the horror 2014 Budget that every Liberal PM since has had to walk away from. Before the Liberals claim that they are being picked on unfairly, expect the Liberal Party to start attacking Labor for who their Defence and Finance Minister will be in a Labor Government. So, to sum up, the Campaign has gone very negative very early and the Labor Party are attacking Scott Morrison while the Coalition is attacking the Labor Party. The question is what has happened in the polls and my response is to watch Newspoll tonight, I think the polls will tighten again this week, maybe to 53-47 or 52-48 to Labor which would then lead us to a ballgame for the rest of the campaign. Now onto the Senate Race briefly and I think it’s worth talking about the South Australian Senate Race which outside of Queensland shapes to be one of the most fascinating races in the country. What’s the starting point? Well, in 2016 Labor and Liberals won 2 and Nick Xenophon won 2 election seats. I can’t see Labor winning more than 2, as I would assume the Greens will pick up a seat this time so that puts 3 seats on the left. I at this stage have the Liberals winning 2 definite seats which put 5 of the 6 seats confirmed. That leaves one seat at the Right or Centre of the electorate and I can see 3 realistic chances of parties winning that seat. First of all the Liberals could win the 3rd seat although based on current state polling I would say that is unlikely. Then there’s Nick Xenophon who could totally flame out and not win a seat, poll moderately and be in the hunt for the 6th seat or could poll largely again and win the 5th seat of 6. I think he’s more likely to poll in the moderate range this time for a variance of reasons, firstly Stirling Griff and Rex Patrick are both running which could cannibalise some of his votes and then there’s the fact that he hasn’t been in the political arena much since his 2018 State Election run. The last party in the running for the 6th Senate seat is Pauline Hanson’s One Nation which has this time put in a lot more effort in running their campaign this time and has just won a historic first seat in the State Election. At this point, I would probably favour Nick Xenophon winning the 6th Senate Seat but Pauline Hanson’s One Nation is a force to be reckoned with.

Thanks for reading my blog, stay tuned at the end of next week for my next blog on the Federal Election race.