Summary of the week in Parliament and the latest in UK Politics

It has been a fairly busy week in Politics both here in Australia and also in the UK. In Australia the first Newspoll came out showing the Coalition in a commanding 53-47 lead, the government then struggled through another week in Parliament although it is unclear how many of the oppositions blows are hitting their targets at the moment. In the UK Boris Johnson lost his first electoral test as Prime Minister with the Conservatives losing their safe seat of Brecon and Radnorshire. In this blog, I will talk about the week in Australian Politics as well as the UK By-election.
The week started with Newstart hitting the news again with Barnaby Joyce again calling for Newstart to increase because he understood what it was like to live on $200K a year and struggle with money. That led to The Chase parodying the struggles of Barnaby Joyce by saying he was scanning his truffles through the checkout as spring onions. Angus Taylor was again back in the news over his farming interests and a meeting he had with the Environment department over poisoned grasslands by a company that he and his family had an interest in. Now Angus Taylor says he is just standing up for farmers but it is a bit more nuanced than that. The story goes and I’m quoting (1) here is that Angus Taylor tried to have a meeting to downgrade the heritage listings of the water lands in his electorate. The Senate tried to move a motion to hold a Senate Inquiry into the matter but it failed 32-33. The Senate also passed a Maritime Legislation bill with East Timor which will provide economic opportunities for the East Timor people.
On Tuesday Bill Shorten came out of witness protection to give his first post-election interview. While he failed to say anything about why the Labor Party lost the election but he did call out the government’s Robodebt program. Before I talk about this further it is first worth explaining what the Robodebt program is, Essentially it matches the reported income on Centrelink with tax records of actual income earnt as recorded by the Australian Tax Office. The Labor Party and in particular Bill Shorten called for the Robodebt program to be scrapped and in question time chased after Stuart Roberts as to why Centrelink was targeting people who were dead and why the Robodebt system was targeting people in the flood-ravaged Townsville region. Now the government’s response is that it is important that welfare recipients are reporting the right income and that Labor did the same thing. To that I would say yes Labor did have a similar program but the government has now automated the program which is prone to errors that aren’t being checked off, also if Centrelink is going to chase after people doing the wrong thing and be harsh on them then maybe they should fix their own issues in the system first. Tuesday also saw the government move an inquiry into the Crown Association into potential misdealings on fast-tracking visas for employees. Andrew Wilkie the Independent member for Clark was particularly strong on this issue and believes corruption exists in Federal Parliament. The allegations that Andrew Wilkie are making go deeper than the visas they go into potential links with violent crime, money laundering per (2). Labor at this stage is not supporting a Parliament enquiry into Crown Casino because they are moving an inquiry into the matter in the Australian Law Enforcement. The problem the crossbench have with this is that it doesn’t have the power to coerce ministers into providing witness. In Question time the Opposition also went after Greg Hunt over the Issuing of MRI licences in Adelaide when there had already been MRIs in that location. The government said this was no different from the approach Labor had to MRIs in their time of government.
Wednesday was a pretty quiet day in Parliament comparatively with the big news of the day being a Section 44 Complaint being placed against Josh Frydenberg. A constituent is bringing the challenge on the grounds of whether Mr Frydenberg is a Hungarian citizen. Now Labor hasn’t touched this because the citizenship goes back to Occupied Germany status to protect those who were taken into concentration camps under Nazi rule but it is clear some people are prepared to stoop low to make a political point. Also on challengers were two added challenges on electoral signage in the areas of Kooyong and Chisholm. Wednesday also saw sexual abuse claims labelled against the Liberal Party senior staff members which also doesn’t look good for the Liberal Party. Lastly, the Senate Labor team went after the Liberals for an upcoming CPAC forum that has a guest speaker on it with some disgusting world views.
On Thursday the calls for a Federal ICAC returned with Labor attempting to suspend standing orders to establish a National Integrity body. Now the Coalition under pressure in the last Parliament promised to establish a Commission but theirs is a watered-down version to what Labor and the crossbench are after. Labor also ended up voting to support the ASIO bill. Per (3) the ASIO bill seeks to extend ASIO’s powers of detention and questioning for a further 12 months. Labor did want to see the extension only be extended for 3 months but in the end, they again “bitched and folded”.
So what’s next for the Parliament. The Labor Party are going to continue to go after Angus Taylor for his dealings with his Jam land Pty. The Coalition for their part will continue to try and get their union-busting bill through the Parliament. Essentially giving the Minister the power to deregister Unions who are misbehaving. The government will also I’m sure continue to talk about being on your side. The big issue that is going to continue to bubble along in the background is indigenous recognition. The government are appearing to dither on this issue not wanting to upset the conservative faction of the party on giving anything that looks like a third chamber with a voice to the Parliament. The opposition and in particular Pat Dodson are willing to be bipartisan on this issue but by the same token they don’t want a token response to this issue, they want real action on Constitutional Recognition.
Lastly on Australian Politics in my last blog, someone asked me how this opposition was going compared to other oppositions. That is a timely question as this week Senator Kim Carr complained that Labor was going out of their way to support the government too often at the expense of standing up for their agenda, the latest example being the support of mandatory detention for Pedophiles which goes against the Labor Parties stance of opposition to mandatory detention. Now certainly this Opposition seems to be behaving differently to Bill Shorten and Tony Abbott who opposed everything for political grandstanding. Now the Labor party will still oppose certain legislation but they are going back to a Kim Beazley style of opposition of opposing things for as long as possible but then allowing the government to carry out their mandate. This seems to be a more historical way of running an opposition because it is how John Howard remembers running opposition to Bob Hawke in the 1980s. The last real obstructionist opposition before Tony Abbott was probably Malcolm Fraser to Gough Whitlam around the dismissal.
This week in the UK was an exciting one as it saw the first electoral test for Boris Johnson. The Conservatives as I alluded to above lost their safe seat of Brecon and Radnorshire. (4) gives the result which saw an 8,000 vote majority for Conservative Chris Davies replaced by a Lib Democrats win by just over 1,000 votes. That win-now sees the Conservatives down to a one-seat majority in the house of commons which makes a no-confidence motion that much more likely to succeed. It was all good news for opposition Parties though as Labour also went backwards on the night having their vote share drop by more than 12%. In an election that will more likely be between the Labour Party and the Conservatives if the Conservatives can mop up more of the Brexit Party vote than the Labour Party can mop up the split vote of the Greens and Lib Dems then the Conservatives would be on track for an election win if an election was held now. This is backed up by polling done since Boris Johnson became PM that shows the Conservatives now consistently ahead of the Labour Party. UK Polling Report has a good report on the polling since Boris Johnson has become PM. As Boris. Johnson continues his charm offensive across the UK he announced a one-off cash bonus for the National Health Service.
Thank you for reading my blog, Federal Parliament is now on a hiatus for a while so my next Political blog may not be for a while.

 

References
(1): https://www.theguardian.com/global/video/2019/jul/31/the-angus-taylor-grassland-affair-so-whats-the-story-video-explainer

(2): https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/pm/attorney-gen-refers-crown-casino-allegations-to-integrity/11368126

(3): https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Bills_Legislation/Bills_Search_Results/Result?bId=r6346

(4): https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-49200636

(5): https://ukpollingreport.co.uk

Advertisements

The Week in Politics and Boris Johnson becomes PM

This week has been a busy week in politics with Federal Parliament sitting again and Boris Johnson becoming Prime Minister of the United Kingdom following a month-long leadership contest between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt. That meant that Theresa May officially resigned as the UK PM and faced her last Prime Ministers Questions on Wednesday. It was a ceremonial affair with a lot of good wishes for the future as well as some questioning over her position on Boris Johnson’s upcoming premiership. In this blog, I will go through the week in politics as well as talk about Boris Johnson’s first few days in the job.

So this week was the first full week of Federal Parliament after the first week of Parliament saw two ceremonial days being for the opening of Parliament and the memorial of Bob Hawkes death. The Monday was spent largely on the Future Drought fund bill. (1) has good information on the bill but essentially it takes money from the Building Australia Fund to invest money into the Drought fund to help for future drought preparation and dealing with the effects of drought. Labor at first disagreed with the motion but ended up folding on the issue and letting it pass. Their objection with the motion was that the Building Australia Fund is meant to be an independent monetary fund that builds investment in infrastructure that stops governments from just spending money on Infrastructure in safe seats. Also on Monday, the Centre Alliance pushed for a senate inquiry into the behaviour of Christopher Pyne and Julie Bishop taking up jobs in industry areas that they previously were Ministers in.

Tuesday saw much debate about the Temporary Exclusion order bill. This bill seeks to stop people who are associated with Terrorists from re-entering Australia. The Labor party again have an issue with this bill being that it ignores due process and could be unconstitutional in that it can be challenged by the high court. (2) sets out what the Bill is as I explained above and also talks about the concerns it has with the bill namely it’s constitutionality and whether it legally stacks up. On Tuesday Newstart again became an issue with Michael McCormack talking about Newstart being a temporary wage stopgap measure and that people should be more willing to work in more rural areas and stop complaining about Newstart being too low.

On Wednesday the Medevac Repeal Act came before the Parliament. Rebekah Sharkie had a poignant contribution to the house on how as a Christian people should be in favour of treating refugees more humanely as Jesus himself was a refugee. Newstart also got a mention again with a report that Paul Fletcher then Social Services Minister and now Communications Minister acted to remove a recommendation that Newstart will be raised from a bipartisan report.

Thursday saw the House move a second suspension of standing orders against Angus Taylor the Energy Minister on his actions relating to an interest in a Propriety Limited Jam Land and what conflict of interest may exist between his actions as Energy Minister and attending a meeting on poisoned grasslands in the Eden Monaro Region. Now Angus Taylor says he is standing up for farmers and has fully declared his interests in Jam Land. Indeed his declared interests only list his interests in a related company and not in Jam Land. (3) has a copy of the second motion Labor moved this week that asks what the Energy Minister was doing meeting the then Environment Minister Josh Frydenberg on the issue of contaminated grasslands, why a compliance auditor was present and whether the Minister asked for advice on whether his actions were legal or not.

So what’s next for the house, I see four issues at least dominating the House next week when Parliament returns on Monday. Firstly is National Security with an ASIO bill coming before the house to extend the powers of ASIO to question and detain suspected criminals for a further 12 months. This will test Labor again as they don’t want to be seen as weak on National Security but at the same time, they don’t want freedoms to be impeded. Expect Newstart to again continue to bubble along in the background as Nationals MPS are now calling for a rise in Newstart as well as a few Liberal MPs. I think Newstart should rise, it is impossible to live on $40 a day and it isn’t just a stopgap measure, people are on Newstart for years rather than months and if you raise Newstart it will boost the Economy as low wage earners tend to not save and it will also give people money to attend job interviews or to move to areas with more jobs available. The problem is point scoring on welfare bludging is easy to do and most people seem to think that Newstart people are dole bludgers. Expect the heat to stay on Angus Taylor on his dealings with a Guardian Article outlined in (4) now saying the Centre Alliance agree to hold an inquiry into Angus Taylor’s dealings. My gut instinct is that he has acted inappropriately but this is a news story that seems to be more of a fringe story at this point and probably won’t damage the government that badly. An issue I haven’t raised yet in this blog that will be an issue is the Superannuation  Fund debate. Government backbenchers and Senators have raised issues on two fronts. Firstly in a Maiden Speech by Andrew Bragg that Super contributions should be made voluntary for those earning under 50K so they can spend that money on other areas such as buying a house. The other area of concern with Super is the plans to lift the contribution rate to 12% with government backbenchers talking about how the Gratten Institute per (5) said that a lift in the Super contribution would impact people’s retirement plans and take-home pay. Labor is excited about divisions in the government because it recently got hit in the election on its retiree tax and so the government possibly doing something that would impact the elderly itself would allow it to run a scare campaign of its own.

On July 23rd Boris Johnson officially became the new Conservative leader winning the poll of the Conservative members 66.4% to 33.6% against Jeremy Hunt. Per (6) Boris Johnson immediately ruled out a backstop with Northern Ireland which makes a No-deal Brexit more likely as the EU has been clear that a backstop is required for any movement on the current Brexit negotiation. The new cabinet of Boris Johnson was quickly sworn in with Sajid Javid moving to become Chancellor of the Exchequer and Jacob Rees Mogg was sworn in as Leader of the commons. The other cabinet members are outlined in (7). Dominic Raab becomes the Foreign Affairs Minister and Deputy Prime Minister. For Boris Johnson, his main pledge is to take the UK out of the EU and honour the Referendum result but he has made other pledges in his first few days as PM namely for increased road infrastructure spending, immediate Education funding and an increase in Policing numbers. Boris Johnson will play well in England but how he plays in Scotland, Ireland and Wales will be intriguing and how he goes in the wider international community will be his test as PM. In a lot of ways, he is like Donald Trump except that he has a large political background both as a local member of Parliament, a Cabinet Minister and also as Lord Mayor of London. I would not be surprised if an election is coming up in the not too distant future if No Deal is blocked by Parliament and that would give Boris Johnson a potential mandate to then implement his version of Brexit.

Thank you for reading my blog, my next blog will be at the end of next week on the happenings in Federal Parliament.

 

References

(1): https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Bills_Legislation/Bills_Search_Results/Result?bId=r6222

(2): https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/23/what-is-a-temporary-exclusion-order-australias-foreign-fighters-bill-explained

(3): https://twitter.com/AmyRemeikis

(4): https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/28/angus-taylor-grasslands-saga-centre-alliances-rex-patrick-backs-inquiry

(5): https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/22/liberals-at-odds-over-superannuation-increase-as-rebel-mps-demand-freeze

(6): https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/07/23/uk-conservative-leadership-johnson-66-4-hunt-33-6/

(7): https://www.politico.eu/article/boris-johnson-new-cabinet-whos-in/

Last week in Australian Politics

Last week saw the official opening of the 46th Federal Parliament. The Federal Parliament opened with a traditional smoking ceremony and then Parliament got into the full swing of things electing a speaker and President of the Senate. After that, the Parliament had the Governor General’s speech which is written by the government that sets out the governments agenda for this term of government. After that came specific Legislation that the government brought on to try and pass laws into existence. In this blog, I will go through the procedural part of the week and then the more formal legislation that has happened this week.

So the first job of every new Parliament is to elect a speaker of the Lower House and then a President of the Senate. In the Lower House, there was no contest, Tony Smith was re-elected as speaker of the House in a landslide. Kevin Hogan was re-elected as Deputy Speaker of the House a position that under the Coalition agreement always goes to a Nationals member when the Coalition is in government. In the Senate Scott Ryan was re-elected as President of the Senate defeating Nick McKim from the Greens who critiqued the Government and Opposition’s agreement that the governing party of the day gets to elect the President of the Senate. The vote was won 62 to 10 with one vote for Gavin Marshall who isn’t even a Senator anymore.

After the voting in of the Speaker and President Parliament was then adjourned until the afternoon when the Governor General delivered the opening speech The full speech is in (1). The speech covered the Economy, talking about cutting taxes and delivering a budget surplus, jobs are also important and the Governor General outlined how the government plans to invest in growing jobs and investing in skills and apprenticeships. Homeownership is also a government priority with money going into first home buyers getting to buy their first home easier. Infrastructure is also important and it is looking to invest in city projects or congestion busting projects across the country. Health is a funding priority with money going to hospitals and money going to mental health across the country for HeadSpace Centres, the money for NDIS being fully funded was also repledged in the speech. Education also was mentioned in the speech re-announcing from the budget the increased spending in government and private schools. The Governor General then talked about Foreign Policy and Defence pledging 2 percent of GDP to Defence spending and a re-announcement of a commitment to boosting the relationship to Asia and to the Pacific region. The GG then talked about Energy, Climate Change and the Environment talking about energy reliability and meeting the renewal targets. The GG also talked about rural and regional areas announcing that one of the policies to be legislated would be a Drought future fund. Indigenous Affairs was then talked about with congratulations to Ken Wyatt for becoming the first Indigenous Indigenous Affairs Minister. Lastly, the message went to Elder Australians talking about the Royal Commission and then Online and Women crime and the need to make people safer online and women safer in the community.

Then legislation was started to be debated and passed. The big law to be passed this week was the government’s income tax legislation. The government ended up refusing to split the legislation up and so stages 1,2 and 3 of the Income Tax Cuts all passed through the Lower House and the Senate. (2) has a good outline of the tax cuts. The first stage of the tax cuts provides relief for those earning between 21,000 dollars and 126,000 dollars. The second stage of the tax cuts lifts the tax bracket to get to 37 percent from 90K too 120K. Stage 2 also lifts the bottom rate of Income Tax from 37K to 41K. Stage 3 then kicks in in 2024 and it lowers the tax rate for those on 45k to 200K to 30 cents in the dollar. To get the bill past the crossbench the Government had to negotiate with the crossbench, The Centre Alliance wanted legislation passed to ensure energy bills came down and Jacquie Lambie wanted the Tasmanian Social Housing debt cleared. (3) has a list of the bills the Parliament Introduced into the lower house today. Medievac repeal is one of the Bills the government plans to introduce but there will now be a Senate Inquiry into the matter. The other bit of news to hit parliament this week was the conflict of interest cases from Christopher Pyne and Julie Bishop taking jobs in Ernest and Young and Palladium. Those jobs are defence and foreign affairs based and they raise conflict of interest problems of using their former knowledge as a Minister to work in jobs that directly relate to their former Ministerial roles. The Prime Minister has asked for an inquiry into these new jobs as to whether they breached the Ministerial Code of Conduct.

Thank you for reading my blog, my next blog will either be after the next sitting week of Parliament where Parliament returns on the 22nd of July or if something interesting happens with Brexit/ US Politics.

 

References

(1): https://www.themandarin.com.au/110979-morrison-governments-agenda-for-the-46th-parliament-of-australia-the-governor-generals-speech/

(2): https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-04/tax-cut-explained-what-will-you-get/11277190

(3): https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2019/jul/04/government-gets-tax-cut-numbers-politics-live?page=with:block-5d1d30f08f0825326e478f7c#block-5d1d30f08f0825326e478f7c

 

 

South Australian State Budget and UK Conservative Leadership Ballot

Last Tuesday saw Rob Lucas deliver his second budget since the Liberals 2018 State Election win in South Australia. It was an interesting budget full of some nasties as well as increased spending in Infrastructure, Health and Education amongst other areas. This last week also saw the Conservative leadership ballot take place and the number of Candidates gradually whittled down from 10 members to the final two who will now hit the hustings to try and win over the votes of the Conservative membership. At this stage, Boris Johnson is the prohibitive favourite to become the next PM over Jeremy Hunt but it will be interesting what the domestic disturbance at Boris Johnson’s house over the weekend will do to his vote. Certainly, it has made what looked like a done race a lot more open. In this blog, I will start by talking about the state budget before I move onto the UK Conservative Leadership race.

So the South Australian Budget was delivered on Tuesday Afternoon. To be able to deliver the speech from the Lower House standing orders had to be suspended in order to allow Rob Lucas a Senator to come into the lower house to deliver his speech. The Budget Papers overview in (1) paints a rosy picture of the budget talking about record infrastructure spending on roads and education as well as health spending. The budget overview also talks about a spending boost for Marine life and housing for new homebuyers. Below from the same budget papers is the figures of operation for the current financial year as well as estimates for the following four years. It shows a gradually increasing budget surplus but does show Debt at both a government and private level rising. This is an interesting trend given in opposition Rob Lucas would say there’s only one type of debt and that is bad debt. To be fair to the Liberals the share of the revenue from the GST has fallen by 2.1 billion dollars from the mid-year estimate which meant some pain was always going to be required.

KEY BUDGET INDICATORS

2018-19 2019-20 ESTIMATED BUDGET

RESULT

2020-21 ESTIMATE

2021-22 ESTIMATE

2022– 23 ESTIMATE

General government net operating balance ($m)	101	94	105	142	251
General government net lending ($m)	-579	-1 069	-654	-989	-585
General government net debt ($m)	6 289	9 468	10 752	12 278	13 208
Non-financial public sector net debt ($m)	13 547	16 713	18 154	19 949	21 271

The ABC as it always does has a good summary of the winners and losers of the budget in (2). The winners as I already outlined are Education where the government is putting money into Tafe’s as part of the response to the findings that Tafe’s had lost some of their standards under previous governments, there is money to schools for transition to year 7’s starting high school and faster internet and there is money towards vet courses which is important for those who don’t thrive in typical education settings. Health I believe is a winner for the reason that hospitals are getting more money even though there is a need for the department to cut some of its spendings after going over budget last year. Housing is a winner as there is money going into an initiative to create more housing for new home buyers through the home start initiative, Housing SA is also going to create more housing for the poorer in the society. Regions are set for a boost in this budget with road spending and an industries production boost. Space and Defence region are also a winner with more money going to the Space Agency that was announced last year. The Environment is another winner under this budget with money going to various park reservation and also to the prevention of the Murray River. Lastly, Water Security and Law and Order is a winner in this budget with money going to water treatment plants and water catchments, Law and Order get a boost with a new CT Scanner for forensic investigations and purchase of a courts building to avoid the need for rent to be paid on the building.

As with every budget winner, there are also losers. Taxpayers are losers with an increase in the hip pocket of fees for licences and traffic offences. In particular, there is a real slug to corporate companies who try and cover the fines of speeding employees. There is also increases to land duty and the closing of a payroll loophole. Public Transport is a loser with the axing of money from DPTI and the increase to bus fares and the cutting of the two zone bus trip ticket. Events licensing will also increase and money won’t be spent promoting various events and through Brand SA a real hit to the tourism industry in the state. Other losers are pointed out in (3). Indigenous Affairs does get some money for various projects but money is also cut from APY Lands and policing in the area. The Public Service will again see a reduction in jobs in some areas although there are jobs being kept in the NDIS to help transition across to federal funding. The vulnerable are again hit by this budget with funding cuts to Domestic Violence Courts and to Victims Support group. SA Pathology is a loser from this budget with the government threatening to privatise services if the SA Pathology doesn’t lift its game after the PWC Audit.

So what do I think about the budget, well I think it was a fairly good one. It is clear this government is for staying quiet and getting on with business. Again this budget will be mostly felt good by those who are inclined to vote Liberal and swing voters while it hurts those who are probably less inclined to vote Liberal anyway. The only problem with being a quiet government is it does leave the airwaves clear for your opponents to fill that space with attacks on the government which they are doing. The cuts to domestic violence at a time when domestic violence is such a significant issue is troubling to me. The continuation of staffing increase for NDIS is promising because it admits that the transition of state disability services to Federal action through the NDIS is a muddled one. The cutting of mental health funding alleged by the state to transfer that money to Federal spending through the NDIS is slightly concerning though. Infrastructure spending is important as it boosts the economy and jobs at a time when the economy nationally is struggling a bit.

The Conservative Leadership is now down to two contestants after 5 gruelling rounds of voting. See below a table of the votes obtained in each round of voting (4).  So the first round saw 10 candidates with a minimum vote of  17 required to make the next round. Leadsom, Harper and McVey failed to reach that criterion so they were eliminated. Matt Hancock the next lowest vote-getter withdrew from the race knowing he couldn’t win from his low vote share. Then the second ballot occurred and the minimum votes required this time was 33, Sajid Javid just reached that mark so he was safe but Dominic Raab being the lowest candidate and below 33 was eliminated. Then a third ballot took place the next day and Rory Stewart was eliminated being the lowest vote-getter. Then the fourth and fifth ballot took place the same day whittling four down to two with Javid and then Gove being eliminated. Michael Gove supporters accused some Boris Johnson followers of Skullduggery in that they strategically voted for Jeremy Hunt in the final ballot as opposed to Boris Johnson to make Jeremy Hunt reach the final round but that can’t be proven. What is the case is that the admission of Michael Gove taking Cocaine illicitly hurt his campaign because it caused people to talk about that rather than his campaign to become PM. As I said earlier the prohibitive favourite now out of Johnson and Hunt is Boris Johnson because he voted leave in the EU Referendum whereas Jeremy Hunt voted to remain and the Conservative Membership is highly Eurosceptic. The Domestic incident, however, has taken some of the shine off Boris Johnson not because he did anything wrong necessarily but it reminds people that his judgment and behaviour can at times be erratic.

Thank you for reading my blog, my next blog will be when Federal Parliament returns or if something interesting happens in the US/UK.

References

(1): https://statebudget.sa.gov.au/budget-docs/2019-20_budget_overview.pdf

(2): https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-18/sa-budget-winners-and-losers-2019/11196286

(3): https://indaily.com.au/news/2019/06/18/state-budget-at-a-glance/

(4): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Conservative_Party_(UK)_leadership_election

Federal Election Results Analysis and Theresa May Resigns

Last Saturday night saw the re-election of the Scott Morrison ran Liberal Party. The result totally upended the polls with a 2PP result nationally of 51.8% to 48.2% 2PP. This compares to most polls averaging out the result at 51.5 to 48.5% 2PP to Labor. Right now the Liberal Party have 77 seats, Labor has 66 seats, the Independents have won 5 seats and the Greens have won their 1 seat of Melbourne. That leaves 2 seats in doubt the seat of Cowan in WA where the Labor Party are in front and likely to win. Macquarie is the one seat that is really lineball with Liberals in front by just 46 votes. If we distribute those seats to who is in front then Libs end up with 78 seats and Labor end up with 67 seats. That from the last election represents a gain of two seats for the Liberals (4 if you count the 2 redistributed seats that were Labor under their 2019 margins) Labor at 67 so down 2 from the last election and Independents and Greens no change. In the UK Theresa May finally fell on her sword resigning as PM effective from June the 7th. That will start the search for a new Conservative Leader and by extension a new Prime Minister. In this blog, I will talk about the results of the election vs my predictions and then also talk about the search for a new UK Prime Minister.

So in Queensland, I predicted a net change to Labor of +2 seats. In the end, Queensland was what lost Labor this election with two seats falling to the Liberals which I predicted Herbert would fall but not Longman and then I predicted 3 seats would fall to Labor of which none fell to Labor. Several seats in Queensland had big swings too Liberal. Two such seats which I include below (1) are Capricornia which had an 11.4% swing to the LNP on 2PP and Dawson which had an 11.6% swing to LNP on 2PP. Oxley is now the safest Labor seat in Queensland and that is only on a 56.9-43.1 2PP%. Rankin also went to the Labor Party with Jim Chalmers and there was some talk he would be the next leader or deputy leader of the opposition. He turned those opportunities down.

Preference count

Vote

Swing

Liberal National Party

Michelle Landry(MP)

Vote:62.0%51,996

+11.4%

Labor Party

Russell Robertson

Vote:38.0%31,887

-11.4%

Liberal National Party

George Christensen(MP)

Vote:65.0%53,203

+11.6%

Labor Party

Belinda Hassan

Vote:35.0%28,700

-11.6%

New South Wales was another state I thought Labor would do well in with me predicting that Labor would go up a net 2 seats with a gain of 3 seats and a loss of the 1 seat. I also said the Liberals would lose 3 seats to Independents and gain 1 off the Independents. I was partially right here, Wentworth went back to Liberal and Warringah went to Independent Zali Steggall. I was also right with Labor gaining Gilmore and Liberals gaining Lindsay but the Independents didn’t challenge Liberal in Farrer and Cowper and. the Labor Party may go backwards losing Macquarie for a net drop of 1 in this state. The swing of the night in NSW went to Warringah where Zali Steggal pulled off a 18 percent swing from the Independents result last time. Wentworth from last election still saw a 16 percent swing away from the Liberals to the Independent. ACT I predicted Labor would hold all 3 seats and that was indeed the case with small swings only in each seat.

Victoria was the real state I thought would be a bloodbath for Liberals where I predicted that the Liberals would lose 4 seats to Labor and 1 seat to the Greens while I predicted the Independent would lose 1 seat to the Liberals. In the end the Liberals only lost the 2 seats to Labor and they were the seats where Labor notionally held the seat on redistribution anyway and the Greens didn’t pick up Higgins despite what a poll said. In Indi Helen Haines was able to succeed Cathy McGowan contrary to what I and the betting markets predicted. In Tasmania I predicted a near status quo result with the only seat I predicted to change hands being Braddon. In the end Braddon did fall but so did Bass for a net change of +2 to the Liberals in the state.

South Australia I predicted would be a status quo result albeit with a swing to the Labor Party in Sturt to make it marginal and in Boothby to make it super marginal. I was half right the seat of Boothby did suffer a big swing to Labor which nearly won Labor the seat. The seat of Sturt however had a swing too Liberal. I also predicted that Centre Alliance would still finish second in Barker and Grey but I was wrong with the Centre Alliance really tanking in those seats and turning marginal seats into very safe seats. See below the results of Boothby, Grey and Barker (2).In Northern Territory I predicted Labor would hold onto both seats albeit marginally due to the struggles of the Labor Party at a Territory level. That proved to be the case with Labor losing ground to the Country Liberal Party in both seats. In Western Australia I predicted a near status quo result with the seat of Swan going to the Labor Party the only change I predicted. In the end WA produced a status quo result with 11 seats to the Liberals and 5 seats to the Labor party.

Preference count

Vote

Swing

Liberal Party

Nicolle Flint(MP)

Vote:51.6%51,230

-1.1%

Labor Party

Nadia Clancy

Vote:48.4%48,067

+1.1%

First preference

Vote

Swing

Liberal Party

Tony Pasin(MP)

Vote:58.1%57,746

+12.6%

Labor Party

Mat O’Brien

Vote:21.1%20,933

+4.7%

Greens

Rosa Hillam

Vote:6.7%6,629

+3.1%

United Australia

Bert Bacher

Vote:5.9%5,820

+5.9%

Independent

Kelly Gladigau

Vote:2.9%2,903

-25.7

First preference

Vote

Swing

Liberal Party

Rowan Ramsey(MP)

Vote:50.7%47,309

+8.5%

Labor Party

Karin Bolton

Vote:23.0%21,463

+0.4%

One Nation

David Stone

Vote:8.6%8,026

+8.6%

Centre Alliance

Andrea Broadfoot

Vote:5.5%5,105

-21.2%

So I have a few questions from these results. Firstly how did the Liberals win this election and secondly how were the polls so wrong. On why did the Liberals win I think in Queensland the Adani issue definitely plagued the Labor Party with the continuing yes or no to whether the Coal Mine would go ahead really plaguing the Labor Party especially as Bill Shorten was unequivocal as to whether he supported the mine or not. Jobs in general was a key theme to the election and I think the Economy being a bit shaky meant voters were apprehensive to change course to a different party. The scare campaign of the Liberals of new taxes really hit home too with franking credits, superannuation changes and negative gearing changes hitting home. There was also the dishonest campaign of an inheritance tax on the family property that did the rounds which scared some people off voting Labor too. What I won’t accept though is those calling for a Quexit because that state apparently didn’t behave like Twitter wanted them too! Honestly that attitude is why people won’t vote for Labor or the Greens because Aussies don’t like being told what to do. In some respects this is Australia’s Donald Trump or Brexit moment in that lower class aspirational workers swung away from their traditional base to vote for Scott Morrison and the Liberal Party. The map below (3) gives a correlation between the Liberal vote and the working class nature of the electorate.

That leads us to the second question which is why the polls got it wrong. For that I link readers to the following article in (4) which is a great read on why the polling might have been wrong. Essentially the article poses that the poll sampled more educated voters who in this election tended to break more heavily for the Labor and Greens Party. The undecideds may be Coalition or Right of Centre aligned i.e. that those who declared themselves undecided voted more favourably for the right. Lastly and connected to the first point the Sample are oversampling from a set of people that are more likely to vote for the Left of centre parties, I.E Younger more educated and from female rather than male gender.  The other problem with the polls this time is that they showed definite signs of being herded which essentially means that pollsters were rounding or changing assumptions to get results that looked the same as other pollsters. Now some might say oh but just overestimate the Right vote next time from polls to fix the issue but that ignores the Victorian election result where polls underestimated the Labor vote by 3.3%. For possible fixes to the polling issue (5) has a good article outlining the introduction of a polling standards regulation body to ensure polls meet certain standards.

Over in the UK as I mentioned earlier Europe claimed another Conservative Prime Minister with Theresa May announcing her resigning as Conservative Leader effective on June the 7th. It was a graceful resignation speech where Theresa May outlined her achievements as well as being forthright on her failings to get a Brexit deal across the line. Five candidates have already announced their decision to stand for Tory leadership. They are:
Jeremy Hunt: Foreign Secretary

International Development Secretary Rory Stewart

Health Secretary Matt Hancock

Former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson

Former Work and Pensions Secretary Esther McVey

They are already clashing over Brexit with Matt Hancock angling himself as a candidate for the future looking to get a compromised deal. Boris Johnson on the other hand is not ruling out a No Deal Brexit (6). At this point it is important to remember that the Tory membership base is even more Eurosceptic than the party room and for that reason Boris Johnson is considered a strong favourite to win the party leadership and hence Prime Ministership.

Thank you for reading my blog, my politics blog will now go into hiatus until Federal Parliament returns or until something important happens with Brexit or Tory leadership.

References

(1): https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2019/results?filter=all&sort=az&state=qld

(2): https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2019/results?filter=all&sort=az&state=sa

(3): https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-24/scott-morrisons-trump-like-election-victory/11145406

(4): http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2019/05/the-miracle-is-over-2019-australian.html

)5): https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/05/24/swings-misses-episode-two/

(6): https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-48403705

South Australia, Northern Territory and Western Australia Federal Election Preview

Today is the last day of my predictions for the Federal Election. Today I will predict South Australia, Northern Territory and Western Australia seats. In South Australia there are 10 seats at play after 11 last time, the population decline caused the removal of the seat of Port Adelaide leading to a musical chair of Labor MPs moving around to cater for Mark Butler losing his seat a senior Labor Minister aspirant. At the last election the 2PP was 52.3 to 47.7% Labor way for 6 Labor seats, 4 Liberal seats and 1 Centre Alliance. The balance now is obviously 5 Labor, 4 Libs and 1 Centre Alliance and with recent polling showing a 52-48 2PP to Labor that will probably stay the same.  Western Australia until recently was a real strong hold for the Liberal Party with 11 seats to 5 ALP seats, that was on a 54.7% to 45.3% 2PP. Recent polling has the Liberal Party down to 52-48 in front which puts a few Liberal seats in play. Then we have the NT seats and they both fell to Labor last time on a 2PP of 61.1-38.9%. There’s always a lack of polling in NT due to so much of the area being rural so its hard to predict what is happening but Territory factors seem to be pushing a Liberal move up there although its questionable whether its enough to unseat any of the members.

 

Adelaide

Adelaide is an old seat having been contested since 1903. It has flipped between Liberal and Labor over the years as the Northern areas are more Labor inclined while the Eastern suburbs are more Liberal inclined. The most famous member is probably the current one Kate Ellis who has held the seat since 2004 and was Minister for Sport and Minister Early Childhood Education under Kevin Rudd mark 1 and mark 2. The seat of Adelaide covers Enfield, St Peters and Norwood and surrounding suburbs. The current member Kate Ellis is retiring and Steve Georganas is moving from Hindmarsh to Adelaide to contest the seat. The seat has a notional 9% margin up from 4.7% and the Liberal candidate Shaun Osborn doesn’t stand a chance of winning this seat.

Prediction: Safe Labor Hold

LNP: 50, ALP 67, Greens 2, Independent 5

Barker

A seat I now know very well. Barker is an old seat having first been contested in 1903. It has only ever been held by the Conservative side of politics and without Centre Alliance has been a very safe seat up against Labor. The most famous member was Archie Cameron who was Speaker of the House under Rob Menzies as well as a Minister under 3 Prime Ministers as well as being the leader of the Country Party for a year (1). The seat of Barker covers the Riverland, the Murraylands and most of the Barossa Valley. The Liberal current member is Tony Pasin and the Centre Alliance candidate is Kelly Gladigau. Centre Alliance made this a marginal seat last time but the lack of Nick Xenophon and the quietness of the campaign makes me think the Centre Alliance are not going to do as well this time. For that reason:

Prediction: Safe Liberal Hold

LNP: 51, ALP 67, Greens 2, Independent 5

Boothby

An old seat, Boothby has been contested since 1903. In early years it flipped between the two major parties but has been Liberal held since 1949. The most famous members are father and son duo Sir John McLeay Snr and Jr who both were Ministers of the crown as well as speaker in the case of the Snr version. Boothby covers Clarence Gardens and Urrbrae in the North to Happy Valley in the South. The current member is Nicole Flint and her 2019 opponent from Labor is Nadia Clancy and a poll in the campaign had the seat at 53-47 2PP to the Liberals. Now Labor internals have it closer but they didn’t deny that they are behind and for that reason:

Prediction: Marginal Liberal Hold

LNP: 52, ALP 67, Greens 2, Independent 5

Grey

Grey is an old seat having been contested since the second election in 1903. The seat was a seat that switched between Liberal and Labor hands but has been Liberal held since 1993.The most famous member was the first one Alexander Poynton who was a Minister under Billy Hughes. He was also the inaugural member for South Australia which was the only seat contested for SA in the 1901 Election. The seat covers the North, North East and North West areas of the state stretching from Ceduna to Coober Pedy and Kadina as well as surrounding areas. The current member is Rowan Ramsey and he was seriously challenged by Centre Alliance in 2016. The Centre Alliance candidate is again Andrea Broadfoot but she will run into the same difficulties that Kelly did in Barker. I do however think this will be closer than Barker.

Prediction: Marginal Liberal Hold

LNP: 53, ALP 67, Greens 2, Independent 5

Hindmarsh

Hindmarsh is another seat that has been contested since 1903. It has flipped between Liberal and Labor hands recently but had a stretch from 1919 to 1993 where it was solidly Labor. The redistribution has made this into a safe Labor seat on a margin of 8.4%. The most famous member was Norman Makin who was a Speaker of the House under James Scullin and later a Minister under Curtin, Forde and Chifley (2). The seat of Hindmarsh covers the western suburbs of Adelaide including the Adelaide International Airport. The new Incumbent member is Mark Butler who shifted to Hindmarsh when his seat of Port Adelaide was abolished. His 2019 Liberal opponent is Jake Hall-Evans. Labor will comfortably hold this seat.

Prediction: Safe Labor Hold

LNP: 53, ALP 68, Greens 2, Independent 5

Kingston

Kingston is a 70 year old seat having been contested since 1949. The seat has flipped between the major parties over the years until recently when Amanda Rishworth the current member has turned the seat into a safe Labor seat. The most famous member was Gordon Bilney who was the Minister for Defence and Science under Hawke and Minister for Pacific Island Affairs under Keating (3). The seat of Kingston covers the southern area of Adelaide from Hallet Cove to Sellicks Beach. The Liberal candidate in 2019 is Laura Curran but this seat is staying in Labor hands.

Prediction: Safe Labor Hold

LNP: 53, ALP 69, Greens 2, Independent 5

Makin

Another seat I know very well. A newer seat having only been contested since 1984. The seat has had two Labor members and one Liberal Member although again this seat has gradually become safer for Labor over the years under the current member Tony Zappia.  The most famous member is Peter Duncan who was a Minister under Bob Hawke’s Prime Ministership. Makin covers the North East of Adelaide stretching from Salisbury to Golden Grove and other surrounding areas. The Liberal candidate in 2019 is Hemant Dave but he won’t trouble Tony Zappia.

Prediction: Safe Labor Hold

LNP: 53, ALP 70, Greens 2, Independent 5

Mayo

A newer seat, Mayo has been contested since 1984. The seat has had three members with it being a Liberal seat until 2016 when Rebekha Sharkie won the seat for Nick Xenophon. The most famous member was Alexander Downer who was Foreign Minister under John Howard and also was Opposition Minister. Mayo takes in Mount Barker in the Adelaide Hills and also Kangaroo Island in the south and surrounding areas. The current member is Rebekha Sharkie and her 2019 Liberal Opponent is again Georgina Downer who contested the 2018 by-election that Sharkie had to contest because of Citizenship issues. I don’t know why the Libs pre-selected Georgina Downer again as she is a fly in candidate and Mayo clearly repudiated that in the last by-election.

Prediction: Safe Independent Hold

LNP: 53, ALP 70, Greens 2, Independent 6

Spence

Spence is a new seat in 2019 taking in the old boundaries of Wakefield. The Incumbent member of Wakefield is Nick Champion and the seat has a notional margin of 17.4% making it the safest seat in South Australia. The seat covers the Northern suburbs of Adelaide going from Salisbury in the South to parts of Gawler in the North. The Liberal Candidate in 2019 is Kathleen Bourne and I barely saw any corflutes of hers up when I was driving in Adelaide the other day. This will be a safe as nails Labor hold.

Prediction: Safe Labor Hold

LNP: 53, ALP 71, Greens 2, Independent 6

Sturt

Sturt is a 70 year old seat having first been contested in 1949. The seat has mostly been held by the Liberal Party with a few exceptions for Labor rule. It has been held continuously by the Liberals since 1972. The most famous member is the current member Christopher Pyne who has been the Leader of the House since 2013 as well as Education Minister and Defence Minister under 4 different Prime Ministers. Sturt covers the Eastern Suburbs of Adelaide from Holden Hill to Athelstone and Burnside. Christopher Pyne is retiring at this election and in his place is James Stevens. The Labor candidate is Cressida O’Hanlon. This seat was at risk going into this election at one stage but James Stevens is a good campaigner and he will hold this seat.

Prediction: Marginal Liberal Hold

LNP: 54, ALP 71, Greens 2, Independent 6

So that leaves a status quo result in SA by my prediction with 5 Labor members, 4 Libs and 1 Independent.

Northern Territory

Lingiari

Lingiari has been contested since 2001 when it took in the abolished Northern Territory Territory. Warren Snowdon has been the only member of Lingiari. He has been the Minister for Veteran Affairs and Indigenous Health. The seat of Lingiari covers all of NT except for the city of Darwin which is covered by Solomon. The opponent of Warren in 2019 is Jacinta Price and this will be a closer race than the 8.2% margin currently but Warren should hold on.

Prediction: Marginal Labor Hold

LNP: 54, ALP 72, Greens 2, Independent 6

Solomon

Solomon has also existed since 2001. In that time it has flipped between Country Liberal and Labor. The seat of Solomon hasn’t had any famous members although both David Tollner and Damian Hale have had colourful Parliamentary careers in NT Politics post their federal careers. The seat of Solomon covers Darwin/ Palmerstone Metropolitan area. The current member for Solomon is Luke Gosling and his Liberal Opponent in 2019 is Kathy Ganley. This seat again could be interesting as the Labor Party in NT is struggling but I still predict the Labor Party will hold onto this seat.

Prediction: Marginal Labor Hold

LNP: 54, ALP 73, Greens 2, Independent 6

So I’m predicting a status quo result in Northern Territory with 2 ALP members and 0 Liberal Members.

Western Australia

Brand

Brand is a newish seat having been created in 1984. Brand is a safe Labor territory and has been Labor held since 1984. Brand was most famously held by Kim Beazley who was Opposition Leader from 1996 to 2001 and 2005 to 2006. Brand covers the working class parts of South of Perth including Rockingham. The current Labor member is Madeline King and she should easily defeat Liberal candidate Jack Pleiter

Prediction: Safe Labor Hold

LNP: 54, ALP 74, Greens 2, Independent 6

Burt

The seat is very new having been first contested in 2016. The incumbent member is Labor Matt Keogh. This seat covers the South Eastern suburbs of Perth. The seat did start as a 6% notional Liberal seat but a 13% swing saw that easily erased and the seat is now a fairly safe Labor seat. The Liberal Candidate at this election is David Goode. This seat should easily stay with Labor with the potential for a Sophomore surge.

Prediction: Safe Labor Hold

LNP: 54, ALP 75, Greens 2, Independent 6

Canning

The seat of Canning is a 70 year old seat having first been contested in 1949.The seat has swung between Labor and Liberal over the years although it has been Coalition held since 2001. The most famous member was George Gear who was a Minister under Paul Keating. He was indeed the assistant treasurer for 3 years (4). The seat of Canning covers the areas south of Perth in the rural and fringe areas. It covers most of the Peel region. The Labor candidate is Mellisa Teede. The current Liberal Andrew Hastie took the seat at the 2015 Canning By-Election that was contested as a result of the death of Liberal member Don Randall. The current margin of just over 6% should be enough to counter a Labor swing in the state.

Prediction: Marginal Liberal Hold

LNP: 55, ALP 75, Greens 2, Independent 6

Cowan

The seat of Cowan is 35 years old having first been contested in 1984. It has swung hands between the 2 major parties over its iteration. The most famous member is none of the members as none of them have been Ministers of the Crown. The current Labor member is Dr Anne Aly. The seat of Cowan covers the northern suburbs of Perth including the City of Swan. The Liberal candidate is Isaac Stewart. This seat was polled by the WA media and gave a 2PP result of 53-47 add that to the sophomore effect that Dr Aly should get and she should hold this seat albeit by a close margin.

Prediction: Marginal Labor Hold

LNP: 55, ALP 76 (majority Government reached), Greens 2, Independent 6

Curtin

The seat of Curtin is a 70 year old seat having been first contested in 1949. The seat has only ever been Liberal held. The most famous member is Julie Bishop who is the current outgoing member for Curtin. She was the Foreign Minister under Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull the first female Foreign Minister and was deputy leader of the Liberal Party under both of those PM’s. The electorate of Curtin covers the area west of Perth. The Liberal candidate of this electorate is Celia Hammond as Julie Bishop has announced her retirement. The Independent candidate is Louise Stewart although she was embroiled in some fake polling that she said was officially commissioned that ended up not being official. The loss of Julie Bishop will take some votes with her but this is still a safe Liberal hold.

Prediction: Safe Liberal Hold

LNP: 56, ALP 76, Greens 2, Independent 6

Durack

This is a new seat having first been contested in 2010. The seat has only been Liberal held with two Liberal members in the 9 years. The current member is Melissa Price and she is the most famous being the current Environment Minister although she has been in witness protection this election after some questionable decisions in her portfolio. Durack is the largest electorate in the country by land mass and covers the northern parts of WA including the towns of Broome and Geraldton. The Labor candidate in 2019 is Sharyn Morrow. This is a safe Liberal seat and will remain so post the election.

Prediction: Safe Liberal Hold

LNP: 57, ALP 76, Greens 2, Independent 6

Forrest

Forrest is an old electorate having first been contested in 1922. It has only been held by Labor for 9 years in its existence and has been continuously held by Liberals since 1972. He was a Minister under Menzies, Holt, McEwen and Gorton. His Ministry postings are seen in (5). It includes the South Western region of Perth including the towns of Busselton and Bunbury. The current member is Nola Marino who is the Chief Government Whip under Scott Morrison. Her Labor Opponent is Wayne Sanford but this is a safe Liberal seat.

Prediction: Safe Liberal Hold

LNP: 58, ALP 76, Greens 2, Independent 6

Fremantle

Fremantle is a federation seat having first been contested in 1901. The seat did swap hands between Liberal and Labor early in its existence but since 1934 has been a Labor stronghold. The most famous member was John Curtin who served as Prime Minister of Australia. Fremantle is located in the area of Fremantle obviously as well as Rottnest Island and surrounding areas. The current member is Josh Wilson and his Liberal opponent in 2019 is Nicole Robins. This was safely held by Josh Wilson at the 2018 by-election without a Liberal Opponent and should be easily held in 2019 despite a Liberal Candidate.

Prediction: Safe Labor Hold

LNP: 58, ALP 77, Greens 2, Independent 6

Hasluck

A newer seat, Hasluck has been contested since 2001. Hasluck changed hands at its first 4 election but has been Liberal held since 2010. The most famous member is the current one Ken Wyatt who is the Veteran Affairs Minister under Scott Morrison. Hasluck covers the outer eastern suburbs of Perth. The Labor candidate is Scott Martin. This seat was also polled today and came out with a 50-50 split on 2PP. This is a tough seat to call but I’m going to lean to the incumbent who is a popular member.

Prediction: Marginal Liberal Hold

LNP: 59, ALP 77, Greens 2, Independent 6

Moore

Moore is a 70 year old seat. For most of its history it has been held by the Conservative side of Politics aside from 7 years of Labor reign under the Hawke years and 3 years of Independent hold in the 90s. Moore hasn’t had a famous member with no Ministers over the 70 years of existence. Moore covers the Northwestern suburbs of Perth including the city of Joondalup. The Labor candidate in 2019 is Tony O’Gorman.  This is safe Liberal territory and will remain so post the election.

Prediction: Safe Liberal Hold

LNP: 60, ALP 77, Greens 2, Independent 6

O’Connor

O’Connor is a newer seat having been first contested in 1980. It has only ever been won by the Conservative side of politics and was held by Wilson Tuckey for 30 years. Wilson Tuckey was the seats most famous member having served as a Minister for Forestry and Conservation as well as Minister for Local Government and Regional services and Territories (6). O’Connor covers the South Eastern section of the state and is one of the largest electorates in the world also covering the Towns of Kalgoorlie and Albany. The Liberal Incumbent MP is Rick Wilson and the Labor opponent is Shelley Payne, the interest in this seat is not Liberal vs Labor but if the Nationals candidate John Hassell can get into second and then push the Liberals on preferences. Either way a Conservative will win this seat.

Prediction: Safe Liberal Hold

LNP: 61, ALP 77, Greens 2, Independent 6

Pearce

The seat of Pearce is a newer seat having been first contested in 1990.. The seat has only ever been won by a Liberal Candidate although the seat has gradually become more marginal as the seat has grown denser in the more working class part of the electorate. The most famous member for Pearce is the current one Christian Porter who is currently the Attorney General of the Country after previously being the Treasurer of Western Australia. The seat of Pearce covers the inner North Eastern area of Perth. The Labor opponent in 2019 is Kim Travers. This seat has been polled twice now crediting leads to Liberals 51-49 both times. I am predicting this seat just stays in Liberals hands for that reason.

Prediction: Marginal Liberal Hold

LNP: 62, ALP 77, Greens 2, Independent 6

Perth

Perth is a federation seat having first been contested in 1901. The seat swung between Liberal and Labor in its early years but since 1983 has been Labor held. The most famous member is Walter Nairn who was Speaker of the House under Menzies, Fadden and Curtin governments. The seat of Perth covers the inner city of Perth covering Perth, Perth West and Kings Park and surrounding suburbs. The current member for Perth is Patrick Gorman after Tim Hammond stunningly announced his retirement in 2018 causing a by-election that the Libs didn’t contest. The Liberal Candidate in 2019 is Jim Grayden. Now this seat was marginal in 2016 but there’s clearly a reason the Libs didn’t contest this seat in 2018, they know its not trending their way.

Prediction: Safe Labor Hold

LNP: 62, ALP 78, Greens 2, Independent 6

Stirling

Stirling is a 64 year old seat having first been contested in 1955. The seat has swung between Liberal and Labor although it has been Liberal held since 2004. The most famous member is outgoing member Michael Keenan who was Minister for Justice and Minister for Human Services under Abbott and Turnbull and was the Minister assisting the PM for Digital Transformation under ScoMo. The seat of Stirling covers the inner northern and beachside suburbs of Perth. The current member for Stirling Michael Keenan is not re-contesting which opens this seat up to Labor. Polling in this seat has the seat at 51-49 to the LNP and that is why I’m predicting the Liberal Party will win this seat just. The Liberal Candidate is Vince Connelly and the Labor Candidate is Melita Markey

Prediction: Marginal Liberal Hold

LNP: 63, ALP 78, Greens 2, Independent 6

Swan

A Federation seat, this seat has been contested since the 1901 election. The seat has flipped between Liberal and Labor hands over the time as a seat. It has most famously been held by its first member in Sir John Forrest. He served as a Minister under Barton, Deakin, Cook and Hughes. His Ministry roles can be seen in (7). Swan is based in the inner south eastern suburbs of Perth being bordered by Swan River at the North and the West. The Liberal current MP is Steve Irons and his opponent is Hannah Beazley the daughter of Kim Beazley. The seat polling for this seat is 50-50 and I’m predicting it will fall to the Labor Party with the presence of a very strong named candidate.

Prediction: Marginal Labor Gain

LNP: 63, ALP 79, Greens 2, Independent 6

Tangney

Tangney is a 45 year old seat having first been contested in 1974. It has mostly been a Liberal held seat save two years under Labor. The most famous member was Daryl Williams who was a Minister under John Howard. He was the first Attorney General under John Howard. The seat encompasses the inner southern suburbs of Perth from south of the Swan and Canning River. The current member is Ben Morton. His Labor opponent in 2019 is Marion Boswell. This seat is held by 11% and won’t be challenged on election night.

Prediction: Safe Liberal Hold

LNP: 64, ALP 79, Greens 2, Independent 6

So In WA I’m predicting a close to status quo result with Liberals winning 10 seats a loss of 1 seat and Labor winning 6 seats a gain of 1 seat. That takes the total seats for the Election to Labor 79 up 10 from 2016 including one new notional Labor seat, Liberals at 64 down 12 from the last election. Greens at 2 up 1 from last election and then Independents at 6 up 2 from the last election. This is obviously only a prediction and I could Labor winning anywhere from 74 to 84 and Liberal anywhere from 60 to 70 and Greens from 1 to 2 and Others from 4 to 8 depending on results. What is clear to me is that Labor will be the larger party on Election Night and they will be most likely to form government post election.

Thank you for reading my blog, stay tuned for my next blog early next week where I wrap up the election.

 

References

(1): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archie_Cameron

(2): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norman_Makin

(3): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gordon_Bilney

(4): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Gear

(5): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gordon_Freeth

(6): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wilson_Tuckey

(7): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Forrest

 

Victorian and Tasmania Federal Election Preview

Welcome to my third instalment of election prediction threads. Today we move south to Victoria and Tasmania. Victoria was once the crown of the Liberal jewel being the home of Robert Menzies the founder of the Liberal Party, in recent decades that has changed and Victoria now is home to the most progressive state in the country. That is reflected in the seat breakdown with 18 Labor Party seats, 17 Coalition seats and then 1 for the Greens and 1 for the Independent in Indi. Since the last election The Australian Electoral Commission have added a seat in Victoria which is notionally Labor taking Labor up to 19 seats. The 2PP to Labor at the last election was 51.8 to 48.2% and recent polling has shown that blow out to 54-46 2PP to Labor. Tasmania which is actually on results a more progressive state than Victoria was the shock of the last election when it turned red with 4 Labor wins and only the 1 Independent in Andrew Wilkie who is also a progressive MP. The 2PP to Labor at the last election was 57.4 to 42.6%. In the blog below I will predict each seat of the Victorian and Tasmanian electorates.

Aston

Created in 1984 the seat of Aston was originally won by Labor until 1990 but since 1990 it has increasingly become a safe Liberal seat. The most famous member of Aston is the current one in Alan Tudge who has been a Minister under Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison as the Minister for Cities and Urban Infrastructure. The seat of Aston covers the eastern suburbs of Melbourne including the suburb of Rowville. Alan Tudge holds this seat by 7.4% and although this seat will swing to Labor a little bit the Labor candidate Kadira Pethiyagoda shouldn’t greatly trouble him.

Prediction: Safe Liberal Hold

LNP: 37, ALP 40, Greens 0, Independent 4

Ballarat

A Federation seat, Ballarat has been contested at every election since 1901. It has flipped between Liberal and Labor over the years but the current member Catherine King has gradually made the seat a safer Labor hold. The most famous member is Alfred Deakin who was PM of the country on three separate occasions. The electorate of Ballarat covers Ballarat obviously as well as smaller towns such as Bacchus Marsh. The Liberal candidate in 2019 is Tim Vo but he won’t trouble Labor.

Prediction: Safe Labor Hold

LNP: 37, ALP 41, Greens 0, Independent 4

Bendigo

Another federation seat, Bendigo has been fought since the 1901 Election. It has in the past been a seat that flipped hands but has gradually become ingrained as a Labor stronghold albeit in the form of a marginal seat. The most famous member of Bendigo is Billy Hughes who was a former PM of the country. John Brumby was also a member for Bendigo who would later go onto to become Premier of Victoria. Bendigo covers the city of Bendigo as well as smaller towns like Castlemaine. The current member is Lisa Chesters and with a swing to Labor being on in Victoria she should easily account for her 2019 Opponent in Sam Gayed.

Prediction: Safe Labor Hold

LNP: 37, ALP 42, Greens 0, Independent 4

Bruce

A seat first contested in 1955 the seat of Bruce was once a stronghold for the Liberal Party. Since 1996 however it has been held by Labor albeit again as a fairly marginal seat. The most famous member is Sir Billy Snedden who was Opposition Leader under Gough Whitlam Prime Ministership, he also served as speaker under Malcolm Fraser’s Prime Ministership. The seat of Bruce covers the South Eastern suburbs of Melbourne including Dandenong North. The current member for Bruce is Julian Hill and he should have no real trouble defeating the Liberal candidate John MacIsaac. This is especially the case as the redistribution in this seat turned this seat from a 4% margin to a 14!!% margin.

Prediction: Safe Labor Hold

LNP: 37, ALP 43, Greens 0, Independent 4

Calwell

The seat of Calwell has been contested since 1984. It has only ever been held by a Labor member and it is a very strong Labor seat. The seat hasn’t had any famous members but Calwell is named after Arthur Calwell who was Labor leader from 1960-1967. The seat of Calwell covers the North Western suburbs of Melbourne. The current member for this seat is Maria Vamvakinou and she will hold the seat despite her Liberal Opponent Genevieve Hamilton.

Prediction: Safe Labor Hold

LNP: 37, ALP 44, Greens 0, Independent 4

Casey

The seat of Casey has existed since 1969 so it’s a 50 year old seat. It has been a seat that swung between Liberal and Labor when it first existed but in recent times it has become a fairly safe Liberal seat. The seat has had two speakers of the house, the current member Tony Smith who has been speaker since 2015 and Bob Halverson who was speaker during John Howard’s Prime Ministership. Casey covers the outer eastern suburbs and covers the Yarra Valley region and Dandenong region. Tony Smith’s opponent in 2019 is Bill Brindle. The seat of Casey was redistributed since the last election cutting the margin to 4.5% and this seat is very much in play as a result. I would assume the popularity of Tony Smith is enough for him to just hold on.

Prediction: Marginal Liberal Hold

LNP: 38, ALP 44, Greens 0, Independent 4

Chisholm

Chisholm is a 70 year old seat having first been contested in 1949. The seat was a Liberal stronghold to start off with but was held for nearly 20 years by Labor’s Anna Burke. The seat was the only Liberal gain from Labor at the 2016 election. The most famous member is Sir Wilfrid Hughes who was a Minister under Robert Menzies. Anna Burke was also speaker for a year under the Prime Ministership of Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd. It is located in the Eastern Suburbs of Melbourne with the area of Box Hill being its main area covered. The current member Julia Banks quit the Liberal Party last year as a result of the fracas from the leadership spill that sunk Malcolm Turnbull and she is now running as an independent in the seat of Flinders. The 2 Candidates running for Chisholm now are esteemed for being both of Chinese heritage. Gladys Liu the Liberal candidate has been lambasted earlier in the campaign for making Homophobic comments on the Chinese Social Media WeChat. Her Labor opponent is Jennifer Yang and I predict she will pick up this seat for Labor.

Prediction: Marginal Labor Gain

LNP: 38, ALP 45, Greens 0, Independent 4

Cooper

A new seat in 2019, largely formed by the old seat of Batman. The incumbent member is Ged Kearney. Copper covers the inner North of Melbourne covering the city of Darwin as well as surrounding areas. The Greens opponent in 2019 is David Risstrom but the Sophomore surge for Ged Kearney should see her hold onto this seat.

Prediction: Marginal Labor Hold

LNP: 38, ALP 46, Greens 0, Independent 4

Corangamite

Corangamite is one of the federation seats having first elected a member in 1901. Corangamite was a Conservative seat from 1931 to 2007 falling to the Nationals and Liberals in that time. In 2007 It became a Bellwether seat falling to the party of government ever since. Corangamite’s most famous member is James Scullin who would later become PM of the country when he got elected for the seat of Yarra. Corangamite covers the southern part of Geelong and then goes west down the coast covering the town of Lorne and surrounding areas. The current member is Sarah Henderson a popular local member who was a former ABC presenter. The redistribution was unkind to Sarah Henderson though turning a 3% margin into a 0.02% margin. The Labor candidate is Libby Coker and polling has her in front 51-49%. I’m expecting this to be a tight result but the Victorian swing will swing this seat Red.

Prediction: Marginal Labor Gain

LNP: 38, ALP 47, Greens 0, Independent 4

Corio

Corio is another federation seat having been contested since 1901. Up until 1967 it was a seat that had been held by Conservatives and Labor but from 1967 it has gradually become a safe Labor seat. The most famous member is Gordon Scholes who served as a speaker under Gough Whitlam and Malcolm Fraser and then as Minister for Defence and Territories under Bob Hawke (1). The area covers the outer western suburbs of Melbourne down to the City of Geelong. The current member for Corio is Richard Marles and he should make short work of the Liberal Candidate Alastair Thomson.

Prediction: Safe Labor Hold

LNP: 38, ALP 48, Greens 0, Independent 4

Deakin

Deakin has been around since 1937. Deakin for the most part has been a safe as nails Liberal seat although since the 1980’s it has become a far more marginal seat. Since 1996 it has become a Bellwether seat falling to the party of government since that time. Deakin’s most famous member is no-one as no member has held a big role in Parliament.   Deakin is located in the Eastern suburbs of Melbourne typically strong for the Liberal Party. The current member for Deakin is Michael Sukkar and his Labor opponent is Shireen Morris. This seat has been polled twice this election with a 51-49 2PP vote to the LNP both times and while that’s a significant swing to Labor I predict the Liberal’s will just hold on.

Prediction: Marginal Liberal Hold.

LNP: 39, ALP 48, Greens 0, Independent 4

Dunkley

A newer seat, Dunkley has been contested since 1984. It has swung from Labor to Liberal in that time although it has been in Liberal’s hands since 1996. The most famous member is Bruce Billson who was a Minister under three different Prime Ministers including being the Minister for Small Business. The electorate of Dunkley covers the south east of Melbourne suburbs including a lot of working class suburbs which makes it an odd Liberal seat. The current member is Chris Crewther and the redistribution was also unkind to him with the margin going from 1.5% to a 1% Labor margin. The Labor candidate is Peta Murphy and they will have little difficulty picking this seat up.

Prediction: Safe Labor Gain

LNP: 39, ALP 49, Greens 0, Independent 4

Fraser

Fraser is a new seat being created from the 2018 Redistribution. It covers the north west of Melbourne taking in the suburb of Sunshine and surrounding areas. The seat has a notional margin of 20.5% so is safe as houses for Labor. The Labor candidate is Daniel Mulino and the Liberal candidate is Peter Bain. This will be an easy win for Labor.

Prediction: Safe Labor Hold

LNP: 39, ALP 50, Greens 0, Independent 4

Flinders

Flinders is an old seat and a federation seat having been contested since 1901. It has largely been a Conservative seat being Liberal held for all bar one year since 1954. The most famous member is Stanley Bruce who was Prime Minister of the country. Peter Reith also held the seat and was a Deputy Liberal Leader from 1990-1993. The current member Greg Hunt has also been a senior Minister in the Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison Prime Ministerships. The electorate of Flinders covers the outer southern suburbs of Melbourne covering Portsea. As I said earlier this seat has been shaken up by the entrance of one time Liberal Julia Banks and she is not preferencing the Libs, she is preferencing Labor over the Libs which makes this seat very hard to call. The Labor candidate is Josh Sinclair and I’m predicting he will fall just short but I could well be wrong.

Prediction: Marginal Liberal Hold.

LNP: 40, ALP 50, Greens 0, Independent 4

Gellibrand

Gellibrand is a 70 year old seat having first elected a member in 1949. It has been a Labor seat for all of its existence. The most famous member is Ralph Willis who became Treasurer when Paul Keating became Prime Minister. Nicola Roxon was also a prominent member becoming the first female Attorney General. It is located in the inner western suburbs of Melbourne. The current member is Tim Watts and this seat will not fall to Liberal Candidate Anthony Mitchell.

Prediction: Safe Labor Hold

LNP: 40, ALP 51, Greens 0, Independent 4

Gippsland

Gippsland is a federation seat having first been contested in 1901. It is one of two Victorian Federation seats that have never elected a Labor member, the other seat being Kooyong. The most famous member is Peter Nixon who was a member for 22 years and was a Minister under five Prime Ministers including the Minister for Primary Industry. It covers the towns of Morwell and Sale along with surrounding areas. The current member is Darren Chester and this is a safe Nationals seat, I’m expecting it to stay that way post election despite the challenge from Shooters and Fishers David Snelling.

Prediction: Safe Liberal Hold

LNP: 41, ALP 51, Greens 0, Independent 4

Goldstein

Goldstein is a newer seat having been formed in 1984. It is a blue ribbon seat having only ever elected Liberal members. Its most famous member is Andrew Robb who was a Minister under Howard, Abbott and Turnbull, including as Trade Minister. The area of Goldstein covered is the bayside suburbs of Melbourne. Tim Wilson is the current member of Goldstein and he will be one of the safer returns this election. The Labor candidate is Daniel Pollock.

Prediction: Safe Liberal Hold

LNP: 42, ALP 51, Greens 0, Independent 4

Gorton

Gorton is a newer seat having been held by one member since its creation in 2004. Gorton’s current member is Brendan O’Connor who was a Minister under Rudd and Gillard including as Immigration Minister. The seat of Gorton covers the outer western suburbs of Melbourne. Nathan Di Nola is the Liberal Candidate but he won’t win this seat.

Prediction: Safe Labor Hold

LNP: 42, ALP 52, Greens 0, Independent 4

Higgins

Higgins is a Blue ribbon seat having been held by the Liberal’s since 1949. It is a roll call for big Liberal names being the home electorate of Harold Holt and John Gorton both Liberal PM’s and also the home of Peter Costello who was treasurer under John Howard. The seat of Higgins covers the southeastern suburbs of Melbourne. The current member for Higgins Kelly O’Dwyer is standing down at this election and in her place this is a genuine three horse race between Liberal’s Katie Allen, Labor’s Fiona McLeod and Greens Jason Ball. Polling commissioned throughout the campaign showed the Greens in front although that was commissioned by a left wing institute so should be taken with a grain of salt. It’s a tough call but I think the Greens are going to win this seat.

Prediction: Marginal Greens Gain

LNP: 42, ALP 52, Greens 1, Independent 4

Holt

A 50 year old seat, this seat was first contested in 1969. This seat was a swinging seat between Liberal and Labor in the first few years but since 1980’s has gradually become a safe Labor seat. The most famous member was Michael Duffy who was a Minister under Hawke and Keating including the Minister for Communication and Attorney General (2). Holt covers the outer southeastern suburbs of Melbourne. The Liberal Candidate is Jennifer Van Den Broek but the Labor candidate Anthony Byrne won’t be troubled in this case.

Prediction: Safe Labor Hold

LNP: 42, ALP 53, Greens 1, Independent 4

Hotham

First contested in 1969. This seat was a Liberal hold at first by Don Chipp who would later go onto found the Democrats but since then has become a safe Labor stronghold. The most famous member was Simon Crean who was opposition leader from 2001-2003. The area of Hotham covers the southeastern area of Melbourne. The current member is Claire O’Neil and she won’t be troubled by George Hua who was also the candidate in 2016.

Prediction: Safe Labor Hold

LNP: 42, ALP 54, Greens 1, Independent 4

Indi

Indi is another federation seat having first been contested in 1901. Indi was a Conservative seat from 1931 to 2013 when Sophie Mirabella was defeated by Cathy McGowan. The most famous member was John McEwen who served as a Minister under 4 different PM’s. He would also later on go on to become PM of the country as the member for Murray. Indi covers the area of Wodonga, Wangaratta and surrounding towns. The current member Cathy McGowan is retiring at this election and will be hoping to see Helen Haines be elected in her place. The Liberal Candidate is Steve Martin and I’m expecting him to retake this seat.

Prediction: Marginal Liberal Gain

LNP: 43, ALP 54, Greens 1, Independent 4

Isaacs

Issacs is another seat that is 50 years old being first contested in 1969. The seat has swung between Liberal and Labor over its early iteration but has gradually become a safer Labor seat. The most famous member is the current one in Mark Dreyfus who was Attorney General for Australia in 2013 and would hope to be again should Bill Shorten get elected on Saturday. The seat of Isaacs covers the southeastern suburbs of Melbourne covering the east of Port Phillip Bay. Jeremy Hearn the Liberal candidate got dumped for anti Muslim comments. This seat in the redistribution was redrawn into a marginal Labor seat but with the swing on to Labor in this state expect this seat to return to being safe post Saturday night.

Prediction: Safe Labor Hold

LNP: 43, ALP 55, Greens 1, Independent 4

Jagajaga

Jagajaga is a newer electorate having first been contested in 1984. The seat has had two members both being Labor Ministers. The more famous of the two is the outgoing current member Jenny Macklin who served as Indigenous Affairs Minister under Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard. Jagajaga covers the northeastern suburbs of Melbourne. As I said earlier Jenny Macklin is retiring at this election and her replacement Labor Candidate is Kate Thwaites. The Liberal Candidate is Richard Welch. Labor should easily win this seat even with the loss of the personal vote of Jenny Macklin.

Prediction: Safe Labor Hold

LNP: 43, ALP 56, Greens 1, Independent 4

Kooyong

Another Federation seat having first been contested in 1901. The seat is another blue ribbon Liberal seat having never fallen to the Labor Party. The seats most famous member is Sir Robert Menzies who was the longest serving Prime Minister and also the founder of the Liberal Party. The seat was also home to Andrew Peacock the opposition leader of the Liberal Party and Josh Frydenberg now the Deputy leader of the Liberal Party. It covers the inner east area of Melbourne covering the suburb of Kew and surrounding areas. The Liberal Party are facing a tough fight this election from the Greens Julian Burnside and polling in this electorate had the Liberals just up 52-48. Again this was a left wing polling outfit and Liberal sources are much more bullish on the Liberals chances in this seat. For that reason:
Prediction: Marginal Liberal hold.

LNP: 44, ALP 56, Greens 1, Independent 4

La Trobe

A 70 year old seat, this seat was first contested in 1949. This seat has swung between Liberal and Labor and is seen as a important seat if you want to form government although it is not quite a bellwether seat. La Trobe’s most famous member is Richard Casey who was a Minister for numerous portfolios under Robert Menzies Prime Ministership (3).La Trobe is based in the outer eastern suburbs of Melbourne. The current Liberal Member is Jason Wood and polling has this seat as a dead heat as of today when the seat was polled. Simon Curtis is the Labor candidate and if the swing is on in Victoria then this seat should fall.

Prediction: Marginal Labor Gain

LNP: 44, ALP 57, Greens 1, Independent 4

Lalor

First formed in 1949 this seat has been Labor held for all bar 3 years. The most famous member was Julia Gillard who was PM of the country from 2010-2013. It covers the south western suburbs of Melbourne including part of Weribee and Hoppers Crossing. The current MP for Lalor is Joanne Ryan and she will have no trouble beating Liberal Candidate Gayle Murphy.

Prediction: Safe Labor Hold

LNP: 44, ALP 58, Greens 1, Independent 4

Macnamara

Macnamara is a new seat in 2019 taking in the old area of Melbourne Ports. The Electorate covers the southern suburbs of Melbourne taking in Port Melbourne, Albert Park and surrounding areas. The seat has a notional margin to Labor of 1.2% but the greatest threat to Labor in this seat may be the Greens. This is a genuine three way contest and will be interesting to watch on election night as to who comes 2nd to the Liberals out of Labor and the Greens. The Liberal Candidate is Kate Ashmor, the Labor Candidate Josh Burns and the Greens Candidate is Steph Hodgins-May. This will be a tight contest but I’m leaning Labor winning this seat from second just holding off the Greens in third.

Prediction: Marginal Labor Hold

LNP: 44, ALP 59, Greens 1, Independent 4

Mallee

Mallee has been around since 1949. The Nationals have held this seat for its entirety of its existence. The most famous member was Sir Winton Turnbull who was a government whip under Menzies and was also knighted in 1972(4). Mallee covers the region of Mildura and Ouyen as well as surrounding country towns. Andrew Broad the current member for Mallee is retiring in disgrace after signing up to a sugar daddy website while being supposedly happily married. In his place is a large swathe of candidates who can be found on (5). The Nationals candidate Anne Webster should win this seat.

Prediction: Safe Liberal Hold

LNP: 45, ALP 59, Greens 1, Independent 4

Maribyrnong 

Maribyrnong has been around since 1906 so it is a very old seat without quite being a federation seat. Since 1969 this has been a safe Labor seat. The most famous member is Bill Shorten who is the Labor Leader of the Opposition and will most likely be PM after this Saturday. The electorate is based in the inner western suburbs of Melbourne covering Essendon and surrounding suburbs. Bill Shorten was looking at going to the new seat of Fraser but decided to stay in Maribyrnong and he will easily defeat Liberal candidate Christine Stow.

Prediction: Safe Labor Hold

LNP: 45, ALP 60, Greens 1, Independent 4

McEwen

McEwen is a newer seat having been contested since 1984. The seat has swung between Labor and Liberals over its reign as a seat although it has been Labor held since 2010. The seats most famous member is Fran Bailey who was Minister for Small Business and Tourism under John Howard. The seat covers the Northern suburbs of Melbourne that are more Labor strong like Craigeburn out to the more rural Liberal voting areas on the Hume Highway. The current member is Rob Mitchell who has been a deputy to the deputy speaker since 2013 although he’s still been a frequent naughty member who gets kicked out of Parliament under standing order 94A. The Liberal Candidate is Phillip Fusco but he won’t win this seat given it is on a 7% margin.

Prediction: Safe Labor Hold

LNP: 45, ALP 61, Greens 1, Independent 4

Melbourne 

A Federation seat, it has been contested at every election since 1901. Melbourne until 2010 was a red ribbon seat falling to Labor between 1904 to 2010. From 2010 it has turned green falling to Adam Bandt and he has gradually made the seat safer. The most famous member of Melbourne is Arthur Calwell who was opposition leader from 1960 to 1967.The seat of Melbourne covers all of Melbourne city centre as well as suburbs like Carlton and Collingwood. The Labor candidate for Melbourne Luke Creasey was disendorsed for making rape jokes on Social Media. Last election the Liberals finished second in this seat and Lauren Sherson would be looking to repeat that again but Adam Bandt is going to win this seat easily.

Prediction: Safe Green Hold

LNP: 45, ALP 61, Greens 2, Independent 4

Menzies

A newish seat, has only been contested since 1984. The seat has had two Liberal members. Kevin Andrews the current member is the most famous of the members having served as a Minister under John Howard and Tony Abbott including as Minister for Social Services and Defence among other portfolios. The seat of Menzies covers the northeastern suburbs of Melbourne. Kevin Andrews Labor opponent in 2019 is Stella Yee. The redistribution changed this seat from a nearly 11% to a 7.8% seat so a swing to Labor could make this safe seat marginal and with GetUp! targeting this seat that’s what I’m predicting will occur.

Prediction: Marginal Liberal Hold

LNP: 46, ALP 61, Greens 2, Independent 4

Monash

Monash is a new seat in 2019 made out of the renamed seat of McMillan. The incumbent MP Of Monash is Russell Broadbent. The electorate of Monash covers Moe, Wonthaggi and Phillip Island. The Labor opponent is Jessica O’Donnell. This should be another reasonably safe hold for the Liberals.

Prediction: Marginal Liberal Hold

LNP: 47, ALP 61, Greens 2, Independent 4

Nicholls

Nicholls is a new seat replacing the seat of Murray. The Incumbent member is Damian Drum who is famously the former coach of Fremantle Dockers in the AFL as well as being the Minister for Sport in the Victorian Parliament. The seat has a notional margin of 22.7%, so a very safe Nationals seat. Without a Liberal candidate this time this will revert to a Nationals vs Labor 2PP. The seat of Nicholls covers the area south of the Murray River covering the town of Shepparton and surrounding areas.  The Labor opponent is Bill Lodwick but he isn’t going to win this seat.

Prediction: Safe Liberal Hold

LNP: 48, ALP 61, Greens 2, Independent 4

Scullin

The seat of Scullin was created in 1969. It has only ever been held by the Labor Party. The most famous members of the seat are a father and son combo of Harry Jenkins and Harry Jenkins Jnr who both served as speakers of the House, one under Bob Hawke and the other under Rudd and Gillard. Scullin is located in the outer northern suburbs of Melbourne including the suburb of Epping. Andrew Giles is the current member of Scullin and he will easily defeat the Liberal Candidate Gurpal Singh, particularly as he was disendorsed over a rape comment made on Social Media.

Prediction: Safe Labor Hold

LNP: 48, ALP 62, Greens 2, Independent 4

Wannon

Wannon is a federation seat having been contested since 1901. The seat has largely been Conservative held over its iteration and has been held continuously by the Liberals since 1955. The most famous member of Wannon is Malcolm Fraser former Prime Minister of the country as well as Opposition Leader before then. The current member Dan Tehan is the Education Minister and would continue in that role post election. The electorate covers the south west of the state down to the border of South Australia and covers the towns of Warnambool and Ararat as well as surrounding towns. The Labor opponent in 2019 is Maurice Billi but he won’t win this seat off a popular local member.

Prediction: Safe Liberal Hold

LNP: 49, ALP 62, Greens 2, Independent 4

Wills

Wills is a 70 year old seat having first been contested in 1949. The seat has been almost entirely a red ribbon seat apart from four years of Independent hold under Phil Cleary. The most famous holder of the seat is Bob Hawke who was the Prime Minister of Australia from 1983 to 1991. The current member for Wills is Peter Khalil. Wills covers the area of Melbourne North including Essendon Airport. The Greens candidate in 2019 is Adam Pulford and he again will push Labor close in this electorate.

Prediction: Marginal Labor Hold

LNP: 49, ALP 63, Greens 2, Independent 4

So in Victoria Liberals are on track to win 13 seats a loss of a net 4 seats. 4 seats are falling to Labor, 1 to the Greens and then 1 seat won back Independents. Labor are on 23 seats which is a net gain of 5 seats from last election. The Greens are up 1 to 2 seats in the state and the Independents are down 1 to 0 in the state.

Tasmania

Bass

Bass is a very old seat having existed since 1903. It has flipped between Liberal and Labor over the years with it being a bellwether seat between 2004 to 2016. The most famous member is Lance Barnard who was Deputy Prime Minister under the Prime Ministership of Gough Whitlam. The seat of Bass covers the area of Launceston as well as surrounding rural areas. The current MP is Ross Hart and his Liberal Opponent is Bridget Archer. A poll in Bass gave Labor a 52-48 lead (6). For that reason I think Labor will just hold onto this seat.

Prediction: Marginal Labor Hold

LNP: 49, ALP 64, Greens 2, Independent 4

Braddon

A 64 year old seat, this seat was first contested in 1955. The seat has flipped from Labor to Liberal and vice versa over the years. Its most famous member was Ray Groom who was a Minister for Housing and then later on the Premier of Tasmania (7).  The electorate of Braddon covers Burnie and Davenport as well as other surrounding rural towns. The current member for Braddon is Justine Keay who fought and won a by-election in 2018 after falling foul of section 44 of the constitution. This seat was won in 2018 off Craig Garland preferences and with him not running this time that vote won’t be preferenced off to Labor as strongly. The Liberal Candidate is Gavin Pearce and he was credited with a 51-49 2PP lead at the start of the campaign. For that reason I think this seat bucks the national trend and swings to Liberal.

Prediction: Marginal Liberal Gain

LNP: 50, ALP 64, Greens 2, Independent 4

Clark

The seat of Clark is a new seat that is largely bounded by the old seat of Denison. The incumbent MP is Andrew Wilkie on a notional margin of 17.8%. The electorate covers the centre of Hobart as well as the town of Glenorchy. The Labor opponent in 2019 is Ben McGregor who is not going to win this seat.

Prediction: Safe Independent Hold

LNP: 50, ALP 64, Greens 2, Independent 5

Franklin

A very old seat but not quite a federation seat, Franklin was first contested in 1903. Since 1993 the seat has been held by Labor but before then the seat swung between Liberal and Labor. The most famous member is the current one Julie Collins who was a Minister under Julia Gillard and then the second Kevin Rudd Prime Ministership. The seat of Franklin covers the geographic region south of Tasmania covering Hobart and its surrounding southern regions. The Liberal candidate is Dean Young but he won’t put much of a dent in the 10 percent margin this seat holds.

Prediction: Safe Labor Hold

LNP: 50, ALP 65, Greens 2, Independent 5

Lyons

Lyons has been around for 35 years having first been contested in 1984. The seat has swung between Liberal and Labor hands with it being another seat to fall to Labor from the Liberals in 2016. Lyons hasn’t had a famous member with no Ministers from the list of MPs to represent the seat. Lyons covers the centre of Tasmania covering from Northern Hobart to the areas of New Norfolk and St Marys. The current Labor member is Brian Mitchell and his disendorsed Liberal Opponent is Jessica Whelan. There are some reports that Jessica Whelan could pull a Pauline Hanson and still win the seat as an Independent but I’m not tipping that. I think Labor will just hold on for the win.

Prediction: Marginal Labor Hold

LNP: 50, ALP 66, Greens 2, Independent 5

So Tasmania get 3 Labor down 1, 1 Liberal up 1 and then 1 Independent which is the same.

Thank you for reading my blog, stay tuned for tomorrow’s blog where I finish my prediction of the seats in Parliament and declare who I think will win office.

References

(1): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gordon_Scholes

(2): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Duffy_(Australian_politician)

(3): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Casey,_Baron_Casey

(4): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winton_Turnbull

(5): http://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2019/mallee2019/comment-page-1

(6): https://www.pollbludger.net/fed2019/Bass.htm

(7): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_Groom