The finale of my state and territory previews and what will reveal my prediction for how the seats will play out this Saturday night. First up, the biggest state of them all NSW.
NSW
Banks
This seat was first contested in 1949 and until 2013 was a Labor stronghold, having never been won by the Liberal Party. Since 2013 it has been held by David Coleman and he has increasingly made this seat safer Liberal. This seat sits in the Southern area of Sydney but used to be more to the South West of the city. The Labor candidate in Banks is Zhi Soon but I think David Coleman will hold albeit with a swing against him.
Labor 42 Liberals 25 Independents 4 Greens 1
Barton
Barton is a seat that has existed since 1922, it has flipped between the two major parties in its early history, however since 1983 the seat has been pretty solidly held by Labor. The current member is Linda Burney, having held the seat since 2016. The seats most famous member is Dr H.V. Evatt who was opposition leader for 9 years and Minister under 3 PM’s. The seat of Barton is covered by the Inner Western suburbs of Sydney. The Liberal Candidate is John Goody but he is not going to win Barton.
Labor 43 Liberals 25 Independents 4 Greens 1
Bennelong
A seat that has been contested since 1949, this seat has mainly voted Liberal in its history but was famously won by Maxine McKew for one term. John Howard is the seats most famous member having served as PM from 1996-2007. The seats current member John Alexander is retiring at this election which puts it at play. The seat of Bennelong is based in the West and Southern Shores of Sydney. The Liberal Candidate is Simon Kennedy and the Labor Candidate is Jerome Laxale. This is a hard seat to predict with the retiring member going but I think Liberals should win.
Labor 43 Liberals 26 Independents 4 Greens 1
Berowra
A seat that has existed since 1969, this seat has only ever been held by the Liberal Party. The seat of Berowra is set in the Outer Northern Suburbs of Sydney. The seat is currently held by Julian Leeser and the most famous member is Phillip Ruddock who was member for 23 years and a senior Minister under Howard. The Labor candidate here is Benson Koschinkski but the Liberals will safely hold this seat.
Labor 43 Liberals 27 Independents 4 Greens 1
Blaxland
A seat that has existed since 1949, this seat has only ever had Labor members. The seats most famous member is Paul Keating, who was PM for five years and famously won the miracle election in 1993. The current member is Jason Clare and his star is rising rapidly, having been a key spokesperson in this election campaign. The electorate of Blaxland is currently based in the South West of Sydney taking in the council of Bankstown. The Liberal Candidate for this seat is again Oz Guney but Labor are winning this seat.
Labor 44 Liberals 27 Independents 4 Greens 1
Bradfield
The seat of Bradfield has existed since 1949 and in that time it has never voted for anyone but a Liberal, indeed the seat has never needed to go to Preferences in the seat. Bradfield is another Northern Sydney seat. The seats current member is Paul Fletcher and the seats most famous member is Dr Brendan Nelson who was Opposition leader for a year and famously said he had never voted Liberal in his life in his early days. The Labor candidate for Bradfield is David Brigden but Labor is not winning this seat.
Labor 44 Liberals 28 Independents 4 Greens 1
Calare
Calare has existed since 1906 and over the time has swung between the two major parties and even had an Independent sit in the seat for 11 years. The seat covers the Central part of Rural NSW, taking in the major towns of Bathurst, Lithgow and surrounding towns. The current member is Andrew Gee and the seats most famous member is Harold Thorby who was Minister for 3 PM’s. The Labor Candidate is Sarah Elliot but she wont win this seat.
Labor 44 Liberals 29 Independents 4 Greens 1
Chifley
This seat has existed since 1969 and has never voted in a Liberal member. The seat is based in Western Sydney. The seat is currently held by Ed Husic, the seats most famous member is Roger Price who was a Chief Government Whip under Rudd and Gillard. The seats Liberal candidate is Jungadeep Singh but Ed Husic will comfortably win this seat.
Labor 45 Liberals 29 Independents 4 Greens 1
Cook
The seat has existed since 1969 and for all bar one term has been Liberal held. The seats most famous member is the incumbent Scott Morrison who is the current PM of Australia. This seat is based in the expensive leafy southern suburbs of Sydney. The Labor candidate is Simon Earle but he wont win this seat.
Labor 45 Liberals 30 Independents 4 Greens 1
Cowper
Cowper is a federation seat, having existed since 1901. This seat has been in the Conservatives hand for all bar two years of its existence. The seats current member is Pat Conaghan and the seats most famous member is Sir Earle Page who was a Minister under several PM’s and was also the PM for a short time. This seat has been under threat by Rob Oakeshott the last two elections but without him then the seat will be safely held by the Nationals. The seat of Cowper is Rural in nature and it covers the area from Coffs Harbour to Port Macquarie. The Independent in this seat is Caz Heise but she wont win this seat.
Labor 45 Liberals 31 Independents 4 Greens 1
Cunningham
A seat that has existed since 1949. Cunningham has been Labor held for all of its history other than 2 years when it was held by the Greens. The current member Sharon Bird is retiring at this election. The most famous member was Dr Stephen Martin who was speaker in the Keating Government. The seat covers the provincial area of Wollongong, it is Labor’s safest non Metropolitan seat. The Labor candidate is Alison Byrnes and she will win over the Liberal Candidate Marcus Uren.
Labor 46 Liberals 31 Independents 4 Greens 1
Dobell
A seat that has existed since 1984, this seat has been Labor held for most of its history save for 2001-2007 and 2013-2016. The seat is currently held by Emma McBride. The seat is located to the North of Sydney in the Central Coast. Michael Fenely is the Liberal Candidate for Dobell. Michael Lee is the seats most famous member who was a Minister under Paul Keating. This is a seat on a tight margin and could well swing to the Libs this election, I think Labor should hold it just.
Labor 47 Liberals 31 Independents 4 Greens 1
Eden Monaro
A federation seat having existed since 1901. For a number of years Eden Monaro was a Bell-Wether seat having gone with the party of government. Labor’s Mike Kelly bucked that trend in 2016, winning the seat back off the Liberals despite the Libs holding onto government. This seat famously went to a by-election in 2020 and Labor just held onto the seat, despite suffering a swing against it. Eden Monaro covers the Rural area of South Eastern NSW covering towns like Bega and Yass. Kristy McBain is the current candidate and the Liberal candidate is Jerry Nockles. I would suspect Labor will hold onto this seat but it could swing either way.
Labor 48 Liberals 31 Independents 4 Greens 1
Farrer
A seat that has been contested since 1949, it has only had 4 members of which all 4 have been Conservative and have all served in Cabinet. The current member is Sussan Ley and she has held the seat since 2001. The seats most famous member is Tim Fischer who was Deputy PM and Leader of the Nats for 3 and 9 years respectively. The seat of Farrer covers the rural area of Central NSW taking in towns such as Hay and Balranald. The Labor candidate in this seat is Darren Cameron but without an independent that is strong here this will be a safe Liberal hold.
Labor 48 Liberals 32 Independents 4 Greens 1
Fowler
An interesting seat to watch, this seat has existed since 1984 and has always been in Labor hands. This seat is based in South Western Sydney and is a safe Labor seat currently. The incumbent member Chris Hayes who was Chief Government Whip under Gillard and Rudd was the seats most prominent member. Kristina Keneally has been parachuted into this seat from the Senate and that has angered local members to the point where prominent councillor Dai Le has entered the contest as an Independent. Kristina Keneally has the name power and would be a significant Minister under a Labor Government but I think she may lose this seat.
Labor 48 Liberals 32 Independents 5 Greens 1
Gilmore
An intriguing seat to watch. This seat has existed since 1984 and has been Liberal/National held for all but 2 terms. The seat is rural in nature and covers the Shoalhaven and Illawarra region. The current member is Fiona Phillips and this seat was badly managed by the Liberal Party at the last election pushing out a female member and then preselecting someone who was the former Labor Party President in Warren Mundine. This time the Liberals have preselected former State MP Andrew Constance who has a very high profile. This is a tough seat to predict and it could go either way, but I think the Liberals might well gain this seat.
Labor 48 Liberals 33 Independents 5 Greens 1
Grayndler
This seat has been contested since 1949 and has only ever been won by Labor. This seat is the smallest electorate in the country by land area at 32 square km’s. It takes in the Inner South to Inner Western Suburbs of Sydney. The seat of Grayndler’s most famous member is the incumbent and wannabe PM in Anthony Albanese and he has held the seat since 1996. The seat is most at risk from the Greens and the Greens candidate for this seat is Rachel Jacobs but she wont win this seat.
Labor 49 Liberals 33 Independents 5 Greens 1
Greenway
A seat that has been contested since 1984, it has been in Labor’s hands for all bar 6 years. The seat hasn’t had a prominent member and the current MP is Michelle Rowland. The seat is based in the Outer North Western Suburbs of Sydney. Pradeep Pathi is the Liberal Candidate for this seat but I can’t see them winning.
Labor 50 Liberals 33 Independents 5 Greens 1
Hughes
A seat that has existed since 1955, this seat started as a fairly safe Labor seat but in recent years has become a safer Liberal seat. This seat is currently held by 1 time Liberal and now Leader of the United Australia Party Craig Kelly. Hughes covers the southern outer metropolitan area of Sydney. The seats most famous member is Les Johnson who was a Minister under Whitlam and eventually retired to become The Australian High Commissioner to New Zealand. This seat is an intriguing one to pick, Craig Kelly wont win but his preferences will be crucial to whether the Liberal Candidate Jenny Ware will win the seat or if one of the independents or the Labor candidate Riley Campbell will win the seat. I would favour this being a Liberal win.
Labor 50 Liberals 34 Independents 5 Greens 1
Hume
Hume is an original Federation seat, having been contested at every election since 1901. The seat of Hume is a rural seat located just south of Sydney. Angus Taylor is the current member for Hume and the seat has been fairly safe Liberal recently after swinging between the 2 major parties in its early history. The seats most prominent member is Sir William Lyne who was a minister under Barton and Deakin. The Labor candidate for this seat is Greg Baines but he wont win this seat.
Labor 50 Liberals 35 Independents 5 Greens 1
Hunter
An original Federation seat, it has been contested at every election since 1901. This seat started in Conservative hands but since 1910 has been in Labor’s hand at every election, albeit there was a mighty scare at the last election for the Labor Party. Hunter is a rural seat covering the Hunter coal mining region. This seat has most prominently been held by Sir Edmund Barton the first PM of this country. The Labor member Joel Fitzgibbon is retiring at this election and the seat is being contested by a Coal Miner Dan Repacholi, while the Nats are contesting this seat with James Thomson. One Nation are also going to be key here and if they poll above 20% again their preferences will be crucial to who wins this seat. Ultimately this will be close but I think the Nats will win this seat.
Labor 50 Liberals 36 Independents 5 Greens 1
Kingsford-Smith
An older electorate, it has been contested since 1949. The seat has only ever been Labor held and has had a number of prominent members in its history. The current member for Kingsford-Smith is Matt Thistlewaite and he has held the seat since 2013. The seat covers the South Eastern Suburbs of Sydney. The seats most prominent member is Lionel Bowen who was Deputy PM under Bob Hawke and was Deputy Leader of the Labor Party for 11 years. The Liberal candidate in this seat is Grace Tan but they aren’t winning this seat.
Labor 51 Liberals 36 Independents 5 Greens 1
Lindsay
A seat that has been contested since 1984. It has been a bellwether seat from 1984 to 2016 when it was won by Labor’s Emma Husar. Some controversy caused her to lose favour in the party and the seat was won by the current MP Melissa McIntosh in 2019. This seat is located in Western Sydney. The most famous member was Ross Free who was a cabinet minister under two PM’s. The Labor candidate here is Trevor Ross but I think the Libs should hold this seat.
Labor 51 Liberals 37 Independents 5 Greens 1
Lyne
A seat that has been contested since 1949, it has almost always been held by the Conservatives save for five years when it was held by Rob Oakeshott. The seat is rural in nature and covers the north coast of NSW. The seats most prominent member is Mark Vaile who was briefly Nationals Leader and Deputy PM to John Howard. The seats current member is David Gillespie and he should easily defeat Labor Candidate Alex Simpson.
Labor 51 Liberals 38 Independents 5 Greens 1
Macarthur
A seat that has been contested since 1949. This seat was a bell-wether seat from 1949-2007 going with the party of government every time during that span. The seat is currently held by Dr Mike Freelander. The seat covers the outer metropolitan south western parts of Sydney although it almost is a rural seat. The seat was most prominently held by John Fahey a Finance Minister under Howard and also a former NSW Premier. The Liberal Opponent is Binod Paudel but they are not winning this seat.
Labor 52 Liberals 38 Independents 5 Greens 1
Mackellar
A blue ribbon seat that has been contested since 1949, the seat has only had 4 members all being Liberal. This seat is currently held safely by the Liberal MP Jason Fallinski. The most famous member is Bronwyn Bishop who was a minister under Howard and also speaker of the House during the Abbott years. This seat is based around the Northern outer Metropolitan areas of Sydney. This seat has a prominent independent running this time in Sophie Scamps. She is a real chance of winning the seat and is definitely a seat to watch on election night. My money indeed is on Sophie Scamps to pick up this seat on election night.
Labor 52 Liberals 38 Independents 6 Greens 1
Macquarie
An original federation seat, this seat has been contested at every election since 1901. Over the years it has flipped backwards and forth between Labor and the Conservatives. The current member is Susan Templeman and the most famous member of the seat is Ben Chiefly a Labor PM. The seat of Macquarie covers the Blue Mountains a strong Labor area and Hawkesbury a strong Liberal area. This is a seat to watch come election night as Labor only hold this seat by 0.2%. The Liberal Opponent is again Sarah Richards and I think she might take this seat.
Labor 52 Liberals 39 Independents 6 Greens 1
McMahon
A new seat only been contested since 2010 but effectively replaced the old seat of Prospect which was contested from 1969. The seat has only ever been held by Labor. This seat is currently held by Chris Bowen who was a cabinet Minister from 2009-2013 and was briefly Treasurer in 2013 under Kevin Rudd 2.0. McMahon is located in the outer metropolitan areas of Western Sydney and encompasses a strong Migrant Community. The Liberal candidate in this election is again Vivek Singha but Labor will comfortably win this seat.
Labor 53 Liberals 39 Independents 6 Greens 1
Mitchell
The seat of Mitchell has been contested since 1949 and has been a solid Liberal seat since 1974. The Labor Party did win the seat a few times early in its history but it is now one of the safest Liberal seats in the state. Alex Hawke is the current member for Mitchell and he is a Minister of the Crown and a close confidant of Morrison. The seat is located in the North Western Parts of Sydney. The Labor Candidate is again Immanuel Selvaraj but they aren’t going to win this seat.
Labor 53 Liberals 40 Independents 6 Greens 1
New England
An original Federation seat, it has been contested at every election since 1901. It has been a stronghold for the Conservative Country and National Party with it being held by those parties since 1913 apart from a brief stint as an Independent seat under Tony Windsor. Barnaby Joyce is the current MP and Deputy PM but the seats most prominent member is Ian Sinclair who was Deputy PM for 5 years, Minister under 6 PM’s and Speaker of the House briefly under John Howard. The seat is rural in nature and covers Tamworth, Armidale and surrounding towns. Laura Hughes is the Labor candidate but she will not win this seat, indeed it will probably be an Independent who comes second here.
Labor 53 Liberals 41 Independents 6 Greens 1
Newcastle
Newcastle is a Federation seat which has existed since 1901. It has only ever been held by Labor. Newcastle is a City outside of Sydney which tends to vote heavily for Labor. The current MP is Sharon Claydon and she has held the seat since 2013. The seats most prominent member is Charles Jones who was a Minister under Whitlam. The Liberal Candidate this election is again Katrina Wark but she wont win the seat.
Labor 54 Liberals 41 Independents 6 Greens 1
North Sydney
This is an intriguing seat to watch, that has moved to the forefront of people’s attention in the last few weeks of this campaign from the Independent and Labor front. North Sydney is a federation seat having been contested at every election since 1901. North Sydney covers the North Shore of Sydney Suburbs. The most famous member of North Sydney is Billy Hughes who was PM during an earlier stint as Bendigo member and was the leader of the United Australia Party. The Conservatives have held this seat for all bar 2 terms when Ted Mack held the seat. This seat is hard to predict, Trent Zimmerman the current MP should finish first on votes but then Independent Kylea Tink and Labor Catherine Renshaw could win the seat from the others preferences. I am finding it hard to predict this seat but if I had to go with a winner, I’d go with Tink.
Labor 54 Liberals 41 Independents 7 Greens 1
Page
This seat on paper looks safe, but was ravaged by the recent NSW and Queensland Floods which could mean the seat is in play this time. This seat has been contested since 1984 and since 1990 has been a bell-wether seat. Kevin Hogan is the current MP and there hasn’t really been a prominent Local MP other than him. This seat covers the North East Coast rural area of the state of NSW up to the Queensland border. The Labor candidate for this seat is Patrick Deegan while the Independent who could win is Hanabeth Luke. I think Kevin Hogan can just hold onto this seat, but it is one to watch on election night.
Labor 54 Liberals 42 Independents 7 Greens 1
Parkes
This electorate has been contested since 1984. It has only ever been won by the Nationals. The current member is Mark Coulton. The seat is rural in nature and takes in a large amount of NSW to the north and the west including Dubbo all the way to Broken Hill. The most prominent member is the current member who has held the seat since 2007. This seat is ultra safe and unless the Shooters party run in this seat will remain so. The Labor candidate in this seat is Jack Ayoub but he will not win this seat.
Labor 54 Liberals 43 Independents 7 Greens 1
Parramatta
This is a federation seat having been contested at every election since 1901. This seat has flipped between the two major parties over the years and is currently Labor held but on a marginal basis. The incumbent MP Julie Owens is retiring and is trying to be replaced by Andrew Charlton another high figure in the Labor Party but again a fly in candidate that could go down poorly with some voters. The most famous member is Sir Joseph Cook who was PM for a year. The seat of Parramatta is based in Western Sydney. This seat is being contested by the Liberals this time by Maria Kovacich and she’s an outside chance of winning this seat, I think Labor will just hang on here.
Labor 55 Liberals 43 Independents 7 Greens 1
Paterson
A seat that has had two iterations, one from 1949-1984 and then a second iteration from 1993 onwards. The seat in its first iteration was conservative in nature and then in the second iteration swung between the two parties. It is currently held by Meryl Swanson. The seat covers the area just north of Newcastle. It is a seat where the Liberals hope to make more ground in at this election with candidate Brooke Vitnell but I think the Labor Party will hold on here.
Labor 56 Liberals 43 Independents 7 Greens 1
Reid
An interesting seat to watch on Election Night, this seat has been contested at every election since 1922. The seat was strongly Labor held until 2013 when the Liberal Party won the seat and they have held the seat ever since. This seat is currently held by Fiona Martin and the most famous member is Tom Uren who was the Minister under Whitlam and Hawke. This seat covers the area of inner western suburb of Sydney. The Labor candidate at this election is Sally Sitou and I think she will win this seat.
Labor 57 Liberals 43 Independents 7 Greens 1
Richmond
A Federation seat, this seat has been contested at every election since 1901. The seat in its early history was held by the Conservatives but in recent years has been held more by Labor as the Greens have gradually increased their vote and given the seat to Labor on Preferences. The seats most famous MP is Doug Anthony who was Minister for 6 PM’s and Deputy PM for 3 PM’s. The current MP is Justine Elliot. This seat is located in the top North East of the State of NSW and covers the coastal towns of that region. The Nats Candidate this election is Kimberly Hone and the Greens Candidate is Mandy Nolan. I will pick Justine Elliot to just hold this seat.
Labor 58 Liberals 43 Independents 7 Greens 1
Riverina
This seat is a Federation seat but has existed in two iterations, the first from 1901 to 1984 and then from 1993 to current. The seat in its first iteration flipped between the Conservatives and the Labor Party but has become a solid Nationals seat in its second iteration. This seat is rural in nature, and covers Wagga Wagga, Parkes and Forbes and surrounding towns. The seat is currently held by Michael McCormack who was Deputy PM and Minister under Turnbull and Morrison. Mark Jefferson is again the Labor candidate in this seat but he will not win this seat.
Labor 58 Liberals 44 Independents 7 Greens 1
Robertson
A Federation seat, it has been contested at every election since 1901. This is a tight electorate to pick and has been a bell-wether seat at every election since 1983. The seat is based in the South East of the Central Coast. This seat is currently held by Lucy Wicks and the seats most famous member is Barry Cohen who held the seat for Labor for 21 years and was a Minister under Hawke. The Labor candidate in this seat is Gordon Reid and this seat could go either way, I think Liberal will hold this seat.
Labor 58 Liberals 45 Independents 7 Greens 1
Shortland
A seat that has existed since 1949. Shortland has only ever been held by the Labor Party. This seat became marginal at the last election as Scott Morrison played well in rural seats that would traditionally favour the Labor Party. Pat Conroy is the current MP and the most famous MP is Peter Morris who was MP for 26 years and was a Minister under Hawke. The seat is in the Hunter region covering Lake Macquarie and surrounding areas. The Liberal Candidate here is Neil McGill but I think Pat Conroy will hold this seat.
Labor 59 Liberals 45 Independents 7 Greens 1
Sydney
A seat that has existed since 1969. The seat has only ever been won by Labor. The seat is based around the city Centre of Sydney. The current MP and the most prominent MP is Tanya Plibersek. The Liberal Candidate in this seat is Alexander Andruska but he is not going to win this seat.
Labor 60 Liberals 45 Independents 7 Greens 1
Warringah
The seat of Warringah has been contested since 1922. Except on two occasions it has always voted in Conservative Candidates. Warringah is currently based around Northern Sydney. The current MP is Zali Steggall who won the seat off the most prominent member in Tony Abbott who was PM from 2013-2015. The Liberal candidate in this seat is Katherine Deves and she has controversial views on Transgender humans which has plagued her campaign. As a result this is a safe hold for Zali Steggall.
Labor 60 Liberals 45 Independents 8 Greens 1
Watson
Watson has only existed since 1993, in that time it has always been a safe Labor seat. The seat of Watson covers the inner south western suburbs of Sydney. This seat is currently held by Tony Burke who was a Minister under Rudd and Gillard and is currently the Manager of Opposition Business. The seat of Watson’s Liberal Candidate is Sazeda Akter but they are not winning this seat.
Labor 61 Liberals 45 Independents 8 Greens 1
Wentworth
Another very interesting seat to watch, Wentworth is a Federation seat having been contested at every election since 1901. In its history it has mostly elected Conservatives other than the 2018 by-election where Kerryn Phelps won the seat after Malcolm Turnbull retired to quit politics. The seat is very leafy and very expensive and covers the Eastern Suburbs of Sydney. This seat is currently held by Dave Sharma and the Independent trying to win this seat is Allegra Spender. This is a lineball seat to predict and it could go either way but I reckon Dave Sharma just holds on.
Labor 61 Liberals 46 Independents 8 Greens 1
Werriwa
A federation seat that has been contested since 1901. It flipped hands in its early years between Conservatives and Labor but has been Labor held since 1934. The current member is Anne Stanley and the most famous member is Gough Whitlam who was PM from 1972 to 1975 when he was dismissed as PM. The seat covers the South Western Outer Metropolitan areas of Sydney. This seats Liberal Candidate is Sam Kuyul but they wont win this seat.
Labor 62 Liberals 46 Independents 8 Greens 1
Whitlam
This seat is a renamed seat of Throsby that has existed under its current name since 2016. This seat has only ever elected Labor members and the Current MP is Stephen Jones. The seat covers the southern Illawarra region as well as the Southern Highlands of NSW. The Liberal candidate for this seat is Mike Cains but this seat will be retained by Labor.
Labor 63 Liberals 46 Independents 8 Greens 1
ACT
Bean
Bean is a new but old seat depending how you look at it, in that has more in common with the old Canberra Electorate that has existed since 1975 but has existed in this form from 2019. The current MP is David Smith and he was a senator briefly before contesting Bean in 2019. Bean covers the Southern parts of Canberra into the Southern parts of the ACT. The Liberal Candidate here this time is Jane Hiatt but Labor will win this seat.
Labor 64 Liberals 46 Independents 8 Greens 1
Canberra
This is a new seat in terms of the area it covers having only been contested for the first time since 2019. The incumbent MP is Alicia Payne who holds the ultra safe seat for Labor. The seat of Canberra covers the central part of Canberra. The Greens may one day be competitive in this seat but for now neither Liberal candidate Slade Minson or the Greens candidate Tim Hollo will win this seat.
Labor 65 Liberals 46 Independents 8 Greens 1
Fenner
The seat of Fenner is a rebadge of the old seat of Fraser and has been contested in its current name since 2016. The seats current MP is Dr Andrew Leigh. This seat covers the Northern Suburbs of Canberra. This seat is a safe Labor hold and the Liberal Candidate Nathan Kuster isn’t going to change that.
Labor 66 Liberals 46 Independents 8 Greens 1
Queensland
Blair
Blair is a newer electorate, having only been first contested in 1998. The electorate has been split into two time periods, Liberal held until 2007 and then Labor held ever since. This seat is one to watch on election night as it had a massive swing to the LNP at the last election. The seat of Blair covers the rural town of Ipswich. This seat is currently held by Shayne Neumann and the Liberal Candidate here this time is Sam Biggins but I think with a suggested swing back to Labor this time that Shayne should hold this seat.
Labor 67 Liberals 46 Independents 8 Greens 1
Bonner
A newer seat that has only existed since 2004. The seat has been won by the Liberals in all but one election when Rudd caused Queensland to swing to Labor. Bonner covers the South Eastern Suburbs of Brisbane. The current MP is Ross Vasta and the Labor candidate here is Tabatha Young but they are not going to win this seat.
Labor 67 Liberals 47 Independents 8 Greens 1
Bowman
A seat that has been contested since 1949. This seat has swung between the 2 major parties over the history although since 2004 it has LNP held by Andrew Lamning. The current MP is retiring at this election and that may be a positive given the remarks that has come from Andrew Lamning. The most famous member of Bowman is Con Sciacca who was a Minister under Paul Keating. Bowman sits to the east of Brisbane covering the Redlands LGA. This seat is being contested by Henry Pike for the LNP and Donisha Duff for Labor but the LNP should easily win this seat.
Labor 67 Liberals 48 Independents 8 Greens 1
Brisbane
This seat is a federation seat and has been contested at every election since 1901. The seat has swung between the Labor and Liberal party over the years. This seat is currently held by Trevor Evans of the Liberal Party. Brisbane covers the central suburbs of Brisbane. The seats most famous member is George Lawson who was an MP for 30 years and served under the PM Curtin. The Labor candidate for this seat is Madonna Jarret and the Greens candidate is Stephen Bates. This is a hard seat to call but I think Labor may just win this seat.
Labor 68 Liberals 48 Independents 8 Greens 1
Capricornia
This seat is a Federation seat having been contested since 1901. This seat has swung between the 2 major parties over the years and for the most part has been marginal. Labor suffered a massive swing against it at the last election and it will be intriguing to see if that was a one off occurrence. The seat of Capricornia covers the Centre of Queensland from Rockhampton to the southern parts of Mackay. The current MP is Michelle Landry and the seats most famous member is Frank Forde who was PM very briefly in 1945 and was minister under 3 PM’s. The Labor Candidate is again Russell Robertson but he is not going to overturn such a large margin.
Labor 68 Liberals 49 Independents 8 Greens 1
Dawson
The seat has existed since 1949. For most of the history this seat has been Conservative held but this seat has had some periods of Labor hold. The seats incumbent member George Christensen otherwise referred to as the member for Manilla is retiring at this election to become a Senate Candidate for One Nation. The seat of Dawson takes in North of Mackay to the outskirts of Townsville to the north of the seat. This seats most famous member is Charles Davidson who was member for 14 years and was a minister under Menzies. This seat has a Liberal candidate in Andrew Willcox and the Labor candidate is Shane Hamilton. This seat is a lot more competitive than the 14.6% margin suggests but this should be a LNP hold.
Labor 68 Liberals 50 Independents 8 Greens 1
Dickson
The seat is fairly new, having only been contested since 1993. This seat has been Liberal held since 2001 but was Labor held in its early history. Peter Dutton is the incumbent and the most prominent MP. The seat of Dickson covers the North Western suburbs of Brisbane. The Labor candidate is again Ali France but I think Peter Dutton will hold this seat.
Labor 68 Liberals 51 Independents 8 Greens 1
Fadden
This seat has been contested since 1977. The seat has been held for all bar one year by the LNP. This seat is currently held by the sometimes hapless minister Stuart Roberts. I would probably rank him as the most prominent member the seats had too. This seat has been based around the Northern parts of the Gold Coast. The Labor candidate is Letitia Del Fabbro but the LNP are winning this seat.
Labor 68 Liberals 52 Independents 8 Greens 1
Fairfax
The seat of Fairfax has existed since 1984. The seat for all bar one term has been won by the LNP. This seat is most famously known for electing Clive Palmer for one term. The seat is rural in nature and covers the Sunshine Coast. It is currently held by Ted O’Brien and he holds the seat safely over Labor. The Labor candidate in this seat is Sue Ferguson but she isn’t going to win this seat.
Labor 68 Liberals 53 Independents 8 Greens 1
Fisher
A seat that has existed since 1949. This seat has been mostly Conservative held during its history. The seat has had two speakers in its history, the current Speaker and current MP Andrew Wallace and the seats most prominent member Peter Slipper. The seat is rural and covers the southern part of the Sunshine Coast. The Labor candidate is Judene Andrews but Andrew Wallace should safely hold this seat.
Labor 68 Liberals 54 Independents 8 Greens 1
Flynn
An interesting seat to watch. The seat of Flynn has only been contested since 2007, it was Labor held for one term and then has been held by the LNP ever since. This seat is currently held by Ken O’Dowd and he is retiring at this election, hence the intrigue in this seat. The seat covers the Rural Central area of Queensland extending from Gladstone to the town of Emerald. The Liberal National Party candidate here is Colin Boyce and the Labor candidate is Matt Burnett and I think the LNP will just hold on here.
Labor 68 Liberals 55 Independents 8 Greens 1
Forde
This seat has existed since 1984. It has flipped between the 2 major parties over the years but has been held by the LNP since 2010. The current MP is Bert Van Manen who is the Chief Government Whip in the LNP. This seat is another marginal seat that had its margin inflated at the 2019 election. The seat of Forde covers the region between Brisbane and the Gold Coast which is Logan. The Labor Party have preselected Rowan Holzberger but he will not win this seat.
Labor 68 Liberals 56 Independents 8 Greens 1
Griffith
This is a classic three way contest. This seat is an older one having been contested at every election since 1934. This seat is currently held by Terri Butler and has most famously been held by Kevin Rudd who was PM from 2007 to 2010 and in 2013. This seat covers the southern suburbs of Brisbane. The 3 main players in this race are a repeat from 2019, with Olivia Roberts the Liberal Candidate and Max Chandler-Mather the Greens candidate. This is a hard contest to pick but I will back the incumbent Labor.
Labor 69 Liberals 56 Independents 8 Greens 1
Groom
A newer seat having only been contested in its current form since 1984. This seat has always been held by the Conservative side of politics. The seat of Groom is a rural seat and covers the area of Towoomba and areas west of that. The current member is Garth Hamilton who claimed the seat at a by-election in 2020. This seat has most famously been held by Ian Macfarlane a Liberal Minister under Howard and Abbott. The Labor Candidate for this seat is Gen Allpass but they are not going to win this seat.
Labor 69 Liberals 57 Independents 8 Greens 1
Herbert
A federation seat having been contested at every election since 1901. This seat has swung between the Conservatives and Labor over the years although in recent years has been won more by the Conservatives. The current member is Phillip Thompson and the seats most famous member is the first one in Fred Bamford who was a Minister under Hughes. The seat is Rural and covers the town of Townsville. The Labor candidate for this seat is John Ring but the LNP should win this seat.
Labor 69 Liberals 58 Independents 8 Greens 1
Hinkler
This seat has existed since 1984 and for most of its history has been held by the Nationals. This seat is currently held by Keith Pitt who is the only MP to have served as minister during the seats tenure. The seats covers the East Coast of Bundaberg and surrounding towns. This seat is very safe LNP and the Labor candidate Jason Scanes wont win this seat.
Labor 69 Liberals 59 Independents 8 Greens 1
Kennedy
An original Federation seat this seat has been contested since 1901. This seat in its early history swung between the two major parties but in recent history has been held by Bob Katter Snr and Jnr. The seat is rural in nature and covers the far North to North Western Parts of Queensland. The seat was most famously held by Charles MacDonald of Labor who was the speaker of the House in the Hughes and Fisher Governments. This seat will be Katter country until he dies or retires and the LNP Candidate Bryce MacDonald is not winning this seat.
Labor 69 Liberals 59 Independents 9 Greens 1
Leichhardt
This seat has been contested since 1949. It has been a bellwether electorate in every election since 1972 except for 2010 when Warren Entsch the current MP won the seat unexpectedly. The seat is rural in nature and covers everything from Cairns North. Unlike the other rural seats the seat of Leichhardt did not have a massive swing to it in 2019 as coal is not an issue here. Indeed with the Great Barrier Reef a feature of this seat, Climate Action actually plays a bigger role in this seat. The Labor Candidate at this election is again Elida Faith but I think while Entsch is around he should hold this seat just.
Labor 69 Liberals 60 Independents 9 Greens 1
Lilley
This seat has been contested since 1913. It flipped between the two major parties in its early history but recently has become a Labor stronghold having held it for all bar one term since 1980. The current member is Annika Wells who has held the seat since 2019 when she survived a massive swing against her to just hold on. This seat is based around the Northern Suburbs of Brisbane. The seats most prominent member was Wayne Swan who was Deputy PM to Julia Gillard and a Minister under Rudd and Gillard, he is also the current President of the Labor Party. The Liberal candidate for this seat is Vivian Lobo but I think the sophomore surge should mean Wells hangs on.
Labor 70 Liberals 60 Independents 9 Greens 1
Longman
The LNP’s most marginal seat in Queensland and therefore a seat to watch in the Election, this seat is a new seat having only been contested since 1996. The seat has been most LNP held. The seat is provincial in nature and covers the Moreton Bay Region including Caboolture. This seat is currently held by Terry Young and was most famously held by Mal Brough a minister under Howard. This seat could go either way and the Labor candidate here is Rebecca Fanning, I think the outer suburban appeal of Morrison could just save Terry Young here.
Labor 70 Liberals 61 Independents 9 Greens 1
Maranoa
An original federation seat, this seat has been contested at every election since 1901. After an early stint of being a Labor seat a few times this seat has become a stronghold for the Country and National Party. The current member is David Littleproud who I suspect will become the Nationals leader in the not too distant future. The seat is rural in nature and covers the South Western part of the State as well as the Darling Downs. This seats most famous member is Bruce Scott a Deputy Speaker of the House under 4 PM’s and a Minister under Howard. This seat is most at threat from One Nation and the One Nation candidate here is Mike Kelly but David Littleproud is winning this seat.
Labor 70 Liberals 62 Independents 9 Greens 1
McPherson
A seat that has been contested at every election since 1949. This seat has always been Conservative held. The seat is currently held by Home Affairs Minister Karen Andrews. This seat covers the southern part of the Gold Coast down to the NSW Border. The seats most famous member is Charles Barnes who was minister under 5 PM’s. This seat will not be troubled by the Labor candidate Carl Ungerer.
Labor 70 Liberals 63 Independents 9 Greens 1
Moncrieff
Moncrieff has been contested since 1984 and has only ever been held by the Conservative LNP. The current MP is Angie Bell and the most famous MP is Steve Ciobo who was a Minister under Turnbull and Morrison. The seat of Moncrieff covers the central part of the Gold Coast. The Labor candidate in 2022 is Glen Palmer but they are not going to win this seat.
Labor 70 Liberals 64 Independents 9 Greens 1
Moreton
An original Federation seat, Moreton has been contested at every election since 1901. It was a Liberal seat between 1910 and 1990 and then was a bell-wether seat between 1990 and 2013 when Labor held the seat despite losing the election. The current MP is Graham Perrett. The seats most famous member was Sir James Killen who was minister under 3 PM’s. This seat should see a swing back to Labor at this election which will see off the Liberal Candidate Steven Huang.
Labor 71 Liberals 64 Independents 9 Greens 1
Oxley
Oxley has been contested at every election since 1949. It is a seat that started off as Liberal but since 1961 has voted in a Labor member at every election bar one. The seats current member is Milton Dick and the seats most famous member is Bill Hayden who was Opposition Leader for 6 years. The seat of Oxley covers the Southwestern parts of Brisbane into parts of Ipswich. This election result for this seat shouldn’t be close and the LNP Candidate Kyle McMillian wont win this seat.
Labor 72 Liberals 64 Independents 9 Greens 1
Petrie
This seat was first contested in 1949. Since 1987 it has been a bell-wether seat. The current MP is Luke Howarth. This seat was one of many Queensland seats that swung hard to the LNP in 2019. The seat covers the North of Brisbane. The seats most famous member was Sir Alan Hulmes who was Minister under 5 different PM’s. The Labor candidate in this seat is Mick Denton but I think Luke Howarth will be re-elected in 2022.
Labor 72 Liberals 65 Independents 9 Greens 1
Rankin
A newer seat having only ever been contested since 1984. This seat has only ever been held by Labor. The current member is Jim Chalmers and he is being touted as a future leader of the party. The most famous member however is Dr Craig Emerson who was a Minister under Rudd and Gillard. Rankin covers parts of Brisbane and Logan. The Liberal Candidate is Paul Darwen but he will not win this seat.
Labor 73 Liberals 65 Independents 9 Greens 1
Ryan
This seat has been contested at every election since 1949. It has been held by the Liberals for all bar 8 months of the seats history. The seat is currently held by Julian Simmons. The seats most famous member is John Moore who was a Minister under Fraser and Howard. This seat is based in the western suburbs of Brisbane and is a classic three way contest this time between the LNP, Labor’s Peter Cossar and the Greens Elizabeth Watson-Brown. This is a tough seat to predict but I think the LNP just hold on.
Labor 73 Liberals 66 Independents 9 Greens 1
Wide Bay
An original federation seat, this seat has been contested at every election since 1901. For most of its history the seat has been held by the Conservatives. This seats current MP is Llew O’Brien and the most famous member is Andrew Fisher who was PM on three different occasions. The seat is rural in nature and covers the coast of Queensland just up from Brisbane. The seat is a safe LNP margin and the Labor candidate Geoff Williams will not win this seat.
Labor 73 Liberals 67 Independents 9 Greens 1
Wright
A new seat Wright has been contested at every election since 2010. It has only had one member who is the current MP Scott Buchholz. The seat is rural in nature and covers the area west of the Gold Coast in the Hinterland. Scott Buchholz will easily win this seat over the Labor Candidate Pam McCreadie.
Labor 73 Liberals 68 Independents 9 Greens 1
So my final count has Labor the biggest party on 73 seats, Liberals on 68 and Independents and Greens on 10. I think the Labor Party are favourites to form a minority government. In terms of sensitivity analysis, Labor could probably get to 75 or 76 seats max, the Libs could get as high as 73 and Independents and Greens could probably reach 12 or 13. I guess what I am saying is hung parliament is my favoured outcome and Labor will probably be the largest party.