Electoral Redistribution

The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) on Friday published their draft redistribution  for South Australia to apply for the next Federal Election. This followed their draft redistributions the previous week for Victoria and the ACT and some earlier work done in the states of Queensland, Northern Territory and Tasmania although those changes were largely immaterial and so I won’t spend too much time on them in this blog. What I will focus on are the changes to the seats in Victoria and ACT where rapid population has caused an extra seat to be created and the slower population growth in South Australia. I will also begin with an explanation as to some of the reasons the Electoral Commission choose to redistribute seats.

From the AEC website they list three reasons that may cause an electoral redistribution (1). The first reason is that the number of people in a state or territory changes to the point where the state or territory is now entitled to another member which is the case in South Australia, Victoria and ACT. The number of electors in more than one third of the seats of the state or one of the two territories seats varies by more than 10 percent from the average number of electors in that area for two straight months. I.E SA now have 10 seats and say the average number of electors in the state is 160,000 then a redistribution would occur if three seats suddenly had more than 176,000 or 144,000 members for two straight months. The last cause for a redistribution which is the case in Queensland, NT and Tasmania is that there have been seven years since the last redistribution which makes sense as in seven years some areas will have experienced population growth due to many houses being built, so take Northern Adelaide or North of Melbourne or people have moved out due to a closure of jobs, take a major industry closing their doors and causing a mass loss of jobs.

Earlier I mentioned that states and territories are entitled to a certain amount of seats and (2) has a very good table that sets out how many seats each area should get. So the table takes the total population for a state and territory, calculate a population quota and divide the two to get a seat entitlement amount. The population quota is calculated by taking the whole population of the six states of Australia divided by twice the number of senators which is 144. Now there are a few exceptions down the bottom for the lesser populated states. Tasmania under the constitution is guaranteed five seats, Northern Territory and ACT are given members of some of the smaller islands that don’t qualify for their own seat. As you can see from the below table the redistribution changes mean that there will be 151 seats in Parliament rather than 150. The last time the Australian Parliament had anything other than 150 seats was in 1998 (3).

State/territory Total population Population quota Result Members Change
New South Wales 7,797,791 164,788.61806 47.31996 47
Victoria 6,244,227 164,788.61806 37.89234 38 +1
Queensland 4,883,739 164,788.61806 29.63639 30
Western Australia 2,567,788 164,788.61806 15.58231 16
South Australia 1,716,966 164,788.61806 10.41920 10 -1
Tasmania 6 519,050 164,788.61806 3.14979 5
Australian Capital Territory 7 419,256 164,788.61806 2.54420 3 +1
Northern Territory 8 247,512 164,788.61806 1.50200 2
Total number of members of the House of Representatives 151 +1
 So as I mentioned above I will mainly focus on the three states that changed seat numbers but as part of the seven year rule Tasmania, ACT and Northern Territory also had a redistribution. As Election Yoda states (4) the changes in these seats were minor with Northern Territory having a slight move to reflect population growth in Darwin being faster than the rest of the territory, Queensland mainly stays the same with at most .1 or .2 knocked off some margins of seats and Tasmania mainly stays the same with the exception of a name change in Denison from Denison to Clark. A good read on the background of Andrew Clark the person inspiring the name change is here which details his career as an established engineer, politician and lawyer (5).
Friday last week the first draft redistribution came out for ACT and Victoria and both the Government and the Greens would be left filthy at the changes. I must say from looking at the changes I don’t see how the Greens would be too upset as the margins for the Greens stay roughly the same but they believe Wills and Batman become more Labor inclined with Melbourne made more Green. (6) provides a good summary of the changes to the seat which I will detail below. The main change to the latest Census showing that the population of Victoria had grown enough to create a new seat in the western suburbs of Melbourne called Fraser which is an obvious nod to former Liberal Prime Minister Malcolm Fraser, ironically this seat will be a safe Labor seat. Elsewhere a number of marginal Liberal seats have become slightly more Liberal inclined and some Labor Seats have become more Liberal inclined. This however is offset by Dunkley becoming a Notional Labor seat and Corangamite to become a 0.03% seat although Corangamite will soon become known as Cox which the member didn’t like as she didn’t want the member for Cox needing to withdraw anything (the childlike sense of humour of some of our politicians is bewildering!). Three other seats are changing names with Murray to become named Nicholls, Melbourne Ports to become McNamara and McMillian to become Monash. The seat of Bruce also grabbed my eye in the redistribution as it goes from a 4.1% seat to a 14.9% seat. One thing that was raised this morning on Insiders (7) was as a result of the redistribution Bill Shorten would seek to vacate his seat of Maribyrnong  for the new safer seat of Fraser. In the ACT apart from the creation of the new seat of Bean the changes are mostly immaterial with the two remaining seats staying safe Labor and the new seat also being a safe Labor seat (8).
My home state of South Australia also went through some changes which despite seeing the loss of a Labor seat wouldn’t upset them a great deal. (9) provides a good table below of the new margins for the affected seats. So Port Adelaide is abolished which leaves Shadow Environment Minister and Labor President homeless. Nick Champion’s seat of Wakefield becomes named Spence in honour of “Great Aussie Women” Catherine Helen Spence who amongst other things was an Author, Teacher, Politician and Woman Rights champion (see (10) for further details about her incredible life). Adelaide becomes safer Labor as it takes in some of the western parts of Port Adelaide that were abolished. Hindmarsh is the big winner for Labor as it takes in most of Port Adelaide that was absolved which turns a line-ball seat into a safe one. Grey and Barker are significantly under the allowed variance for a seat enrolment total and so they get bumped up by taking in the more Liberal inclined parts of Spence which has the flow on effect of turning Spence into a safer Labor seat. Kingston is the only seat which has a positive flow to the Liberals as it gives up the Labor inclined area of Aldinga Beach to Mayo but if you looked at the 2PP value for the Libs under this new boundary Labor will still be inclined to hold that seat. What this suggests to me in SA is that it is going to be hard to flip seats from election to election in SA with Boothby the obvious target to fall in SA at the next election. I for am also surprised that Port Adelaide was dumped as it has been a seat at State or Federal level since 1851. Now as I said above the loss of Port Adelaide leaves Mark Butler homeless and as he is such a significant player he needs to be re homed. The obvious solution would be to give the seat of Adelaide to him as Kate Ellis the long serving member is retiring however that is a right aligned seat and they would be loather to give such a prized seat up to the left particularly as they just forfeited the number one senate spot in the 2016 election to Penny Wong over Don Farrell. The alternative solutions as outlined by (11) have their issues, he could enter the senate but that would limit his progression as a possible future Labor leader which I think would not be beyond him even if he’s not my cup of tea as a politician. I think the more likely option is that one of the left aligned members of Hindmarsh in Steve Georganis or Makin member Tony Zappia would be tapped on the shoulder to stand aside for Mark Butler. An outside option would be for him to go to Spence in the north which is the safest seat for Labor under these new boundaries and then Nick Champion moves to Makin pushing aside Tony Zappia. My money is on Butler moving into Hindmarsh.
Lib Change ALP Change Xen Change LIB 2pp vs ALP
Adelaide 34.4% -2.1% 42.8% 6.9% 12.5% -0.3% 41.1% -4.3%
Barker 47.3% 0.8% 15.9% 0.7% 29.0% -0.1% 64.4% -0.8%
Boothby 44.4% 3.2% 27.7% 3.2% 18.3% -2.4% 52.8% -0.7%
Grey 44.7% 1.9% 22.4% 0.8% 27.2% -0.6% 58.6% -0.1%
Hindmarsh 33.5% -6.8% 43.4% 9.4% 16.4% 1.4% 41.8% -7.6%
Kingston 27.2% 3.9% 50.0% 0.6% 17.7% 0.5% 36.5% 3.5%
Makin 28.6% 0.0% 46.3% 4.5% 16.2% -0.4% 39.2% -1.2%
Mayo 37.7% -0.1% 16.4% 2.9% 33.8% -1.1% 53.3% -2.1%
Port Adelaide Abolished
Spence/Wakefield 20.4% -6.0% 49.4% 9.6% 20.1% -0.4% 32.1% -6.9%
Sturt 47.4% 3.0% 23.5% 1.3% 19.7% -1.4% 55.7% -0.1%

This Redistribution has certainly got some coverage but not as much as I think it should given it’s impact. The reason this redistribution is so important is because it means Malcolm Turnbull goes into the next election on boundaries that place him in minority government. The new numbers are Liberal 75 Labor 71 and 5 others which is one short of the 76 needed in the 151 seat parliament. That is why I think the Citizenship Issue is so key, if Katy Gallagher is wiped out of Parliament then it means 3 Labor MPs and Rebekah Sharkie the Nick Xenophon independent from South Australia would fall foul of the constitution under the same test of reasonable steps not meaning just starting the process of removing dual citizenship before the writs of the election were issued. If the Liberals could win one of those seats and I think they are a chance in Longman and Mayo then that would mean they regain their majority going into the new boundaries of the next election and it could create much needed momentum to show they still have some favourability in the electorate.


(1): https://www.aec.gov.au/Electorates/Redistributions/index.htm

(2): https://www.aec.gov.au/Electorates/Redistributions/calculating-entitlements.htm

(3): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_federal_election,_1998

(4): http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal-redistribution-2018/

(5): http://adb.anu.edu.au/biography/clark-andrew-inglis-3211

(6): http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal-redistribution-2018/vic/

(7): http://www.abc.net.au/insiders/sunday-15-april-full-program/9660530

(8): http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal-redistribution-2018/act/

(9): https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/04/13/south-australian-draft-federal-redistribution/#comments

(10): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catherine_Helen_Spence

(11): http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-13/mark-butler-waits-seat-new-electoral-boundaries-south-australia/9655748


South Australia Election Results Summary

My state went to the polls on the weekend and the 16 year Labor Government were voted out of office. I decided to wait a while for the results to be a bit clearer and I think we are now at a clear enough point to give some analysis. At this point there are 2 seats still listed in doubt although I put that figure closer to 2 in doubt as Adelaide appears to be firming in the Liberal column which would mean Liberals have won 25 seats, Labor have won 18 and 3 Independents have won their seats. The seat left still in doubt is Mawson(1) which currently has Labor ahead however postal votes tend to favour the Liberal Party and so the projection by Antony Green on the night and (2) is that the Liberals will go on to hold the seat. Below is a table of the results and projections of seats that are close at this stage. The difficulty with assuming a Liberal win in Mawson at this stage is that absentee votes are still missing and they will likely favour the Labor booths in Aldinga. If that seat went to the Liberal Party as predicted the result would be Libs 26- Labor 18 and 3 Independents and Troy Bell has promised to back the Libs and may still rejoin the Libs if his fraud charges are clearing making the margin 27-18-2.


The interesting thing about this election is that some of the narratives for this election that have emerged from this result don’t necessarily marry up to the results. The big assumption is that this result marks the return of the 2 party system, this might be the case compared to last year when SA Best were polling 30 odd percent and projected to win 10+ seats but as Antony Green says (4) this is the second lowest Labor Primary vote of all time, their lowest being in 1993 after the state bank crisis (my mum always relays the story of on the day of the bank going under the Premier went and banked some money in an account to show that the bank was ok just as the bank was announcing they were collapsing) and it is the second worst result ever for the Liberals with their worst being in the Rann slide of 2006. Indeed in the current primary votes (5) the Liberals are down 7 percent from 2014 to 37.5%, Labor are down 2 percent to 34%, Xenophon have just over. 13.5%, the Greens are off 2% to 6.6%, Conservatives lose 3 percent off their old Family First vote to be 3.1% which is a disappointing result and Independents are up to 5.2% which may be partially explained by Francis Bedford and Troy Bells wins as Independents after being party members last time.

The second narrative I heard is that this is a great win for the Liberals and while winning after 16 years is no mean feat, the party actually strictly went backwards on a 2PP basis this time with a final 2PP figure being 51.5 to 48.5 a swing of 1.7% to the Labor Party. I think what that comes down to is Labor as much as they tried to say they were trying to win the election it looks like they were more trying to save the furniture which they have appeared to do with only one seat Labor outside of the notional Liberal seats with Labor members falling to the Libs and that was the seat of King which is a new seat so didn’t have incumbency. What might concern the Liberals is that there is still a wall of Labor seats that the Liberals can’t switch from Labor hands. Seats such as Lee in the Semaphore region that the Libs would have hoped to have picked up had a 2.2 percent Labor swing (6) and even Light which is in the Gawler region which really swung to Labor and is now held by more than 10% (7). I also think in the North there was some strategic voting by Liberal voters who wanted to push the SA Best party into second place which came at the expense of Liberal voters.

The last narrative though from the Labor Party is that the only reason Liberals lost this election is because of the it’s time factor and the seat redistribution. While the it’s time factor certainly had some factor in the election result and the seat redistribution meant that the Liberals were able to win the election this time by winning the 2PP vote I do think other things came into play. I think the Liberal Party learnt from the past in that it’s no point running up 70-80% 2PP seats and then not winning the marginal seats and I think this time the Liberal Party focused more on the seats they needed to win and less on some of their safer seats. Conversely I think the Labor Party had a campaign more focussed on their base to appeal to their voters and make sure they didn’t go off and vote for SA Best, now that worked in seats like Elizabeth, Playford in the Northern Metropolitan area and Giles in the far North but it possibly cost their chance of votes in the more marginal seats. I also think some of the controversies of the Labor Party came back to bite them. They were a visionary party that always had exciting new promises for the state but the process of governing and dealing with policy problems had an air of ignore until it became a crisis and then try and minimalise the effect they had on people. Good examples being the Oaken Aged care disaster which concerned me as one day I may be in an aged care mental health facility, the Chemotherapy bungle, Families SA abuse claims, RAH building delays and closing elements of minor hospitals. The last week provided another example of this when Labor refused to release a report detailing safety concerns in the new hospital.

One of the key talking points of the election night was the battle for Hartley with Vincent Tarzia and Nick Xenophon from his newly formed SA Best party. In the end the contest wasn’t close with Vincent Tarzia the easy winner of the seat and indeed there is still a chance that Nick Xenophon finished third in the seat giving Vincent an even clearer win(8). I think Nick’s night summarised a lot of the problems for SA Best on the night, there was a wide expectation when SA Best were travelling well in the polls last year that SA Best would finish second in every safer seat in the state and then preferences would push the SA Best candidate over the line. Indeed what looks like happening in a lot of seats is that SA Best will end up finishing third in seats or very close to third in seats and therefore be pushed out of preferencing before the final count. In the end SA Best finished 2nd in 10 seats of the 47 seats in the seat and of those seats only 2 were Labor seats which would have disappointed SA Best given polling through the campaign suggested the Labor Party might have struggles with SA Best in their Northern heartland seats where the Liberal vote was low enough for SA Best to finish 2nd and then catapult the Labor member. Indeed the closest the SA Best Party got to winning a seat is in Heysen where they picked up a 10% swing to get within 1.9% of the Liberal candidate.  I also think there was an assumption that the SA Best preferences would flow through similar to the Federal Election i.e favouring 60-40 to the ALP and while that hasn’t been confirmed as to what it is doing exactly yet it appears the preferences are flowing a lot closer to 50-50 between the major parties. That would make sense if you think the 10 percent that the Liberals and Conservative Parties lost to SA Best then probably flowed back in some form to the Liberal Party more so than the Labor Party who only went backwards a few percent to the SA Best expense. I think the other thing to take away with SA Best is that Steven Marshall refusing to make a deal with the SA Best Party has worked in that he has now got to majority Parliament and possibly avoided alienating other voters who would not want to see the Liberals doing a deal with a minor party, following Will Hodgman doing the same in Tasmania last week it might be a message to other states to not straddle the line of will they won’t they deal with minor parties like One Nation and say they will go it alone or not at all and they may be rewarded for that by undecided voters who then feel they need to back one way to win majority government.

Before I move onto the upper house there are a few more things to look at in the lower house, firstly how my predictions went vs the actual results and then I’ve always been intrigued by the safest seats in the country/state. So my final seat project was not far off with me predicting 23 Liberals, 18 Labor, 3 SA Best and 3 Independents. So I was wildly off on SA Best winning two Labor seats in Enfield and Giles, in Enfield SA Best’s fall in the polls over the last week meant they finished behind the Liberal Mathew and so John Rau comfortably held his seat on a 2PP basis and in Giles the SA Best vote tanked enough that while he finished 2nd the Labor vote was basically at 50 percent and almost didn’t need preferences. I also predicted that Liberals would lose Hartley to Nick as I assumed enough people would want to see him in Parliament even if they had cooled on his party as a whole but credit to Vincent who clearly ran a strong campaign and ended up comfortably winning the seat with a near 6% swing to himself.  I then effectively cancelled two seats out with my call of Liberals taking Hurtle Vale which had a nice swing to the Labor Party (The 2014 boundaries suggested this result was in play but the Liberals were making strong ground noises that they could take this seat) offset by the Liberals grabbing the new seat of King where I thought Labor had made a few more local  electorate announcements. I then called Adelaide as a gain to Labor and I was close on that seat where indeed a strong ground campaign by Labor has seen them nearly take the seat and Mawson I also called as Labor gain from the notional Liberal seat and I’m close on that ground in that the Labor or Liberal Party could still take this seat, indeed again Leon Bignell has got a swing to himself for the 3rd election in a row despite the pundits predicting the seat would fall to the Liberals. Now the safest Labor seat after this election is Croydon where Peter Malinauskas increased the margin of his 2PP lead from 71-29 to 76-24(9). Indeed it was joked that with Michael Atkinson finally retiring Peter Malinauskas could see the full potential of how Labor this seat was. The safest booth in Croydon was Woodville Gardens with an impressive 83!!!!% 2PP Labor result (10). With Jay Weatherill resigning as Labor leader the day after the election which was to be expected when he cited he could now spend more time with his family again, Peter Malinauskas seems the natural successor to the role given he was instrumental in the transition from Mike Rann to Jay Weatherill when he was head union representative. Amazingly Croydon is not the safest seat in the state that seat goes to Flinders which actually suffered a 3 percent swing to the Labor party this election but is still held on a 76-24 2PP (11). Flinders had the booth of Karkoo where Liberal had a 97!!!!% 2PP result (12) although to be fair that was from 67 total votes at the booth.

Onto the Legislative Council and the final results are not going to be known for another month but from the results we do have I think it fairly certain what the final results are going to be. The current Legislative results are given here (13): and from those results it looks like the Libs and Labor will keep their 4 seats, SA Best will take 2 seats and the final seat will go to the Greens. From my prediction I oversold the SA Best result by a seat and the Labor seat amount was undersold by a seat although there is some potential for the Conservatives to gain the last seat at the Labor’s 4 seat expense. This seems unlikely as with the removal of preferences flowing above the line with a just vote 1 result the Conservatives will struggle to pick up as many preferences. If the seats in the Upper House flow as I expect then the Dignity Party and SA Conservatives both lose a seat and we have 8 Libs, 8 Labor, 2 SA Best, 2 Greens and 1 Advance SA and 1 SA Conservative. With theoretically a Liberal President the Liberals would then need to negotiate deals with the Conservative and Advance SA who share a good amount of economic policy with each other and the SA Best senators who are more protectionist and share less in common economically.


(1): http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/sa-election-2018/guide/maws/

(2): https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/03/19/south-australian-election-late-counting-2/

(3): https://www.pollbludger.net/w%5B-content/blogs.dir/6/files/2018/03/2018-03-20-sa-late-count.png

(4): https://twitter.com/AntonyGreenABC/status/975332539836477440

(5): http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/sa-election-2018/results/

(6): http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/sa-election-2018/guide/lee/

(7): http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/sa-election-2018/guide/ligh/

(8): http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/sa-election-2018/guide/hart/

(9): http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/sa-election-2018/guide/croy/

(10): https://results.ecsa.sa.gov.au/pbr?id=808

(11): http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/sa-election-2018/guide/flin/

(12): https://results.ecsa.sa.gov.au/pbr?id=808

(13): https://results.ecsa.sa.gov.au/lc


Seat by Seat Prediction for South Australian Election

With the South Australian Election tomorrow I will make my prediction of Lower House and Upper House seats, starting from the safest Labor seat and working to the safest Liberal Seat. See (1) for the current seat pendulum.

Safe Labor Seats and will hold

Croydon: Labor held currently by nearly 20 percent this seat has been held for Labor by Michael Atkinson since 1989. He has been speaker of the current lower house and is retiring along with partner Jennifer Rankine. The seat is now being contested by Peter Malinauskas who is switching houses from the Legislative Council and he will be a strong leadership candidate if Jay Weatherill decides to not stay in the top job after the election. This seat takes in the Regency Park and Croydon area and is Labor heartland. This will be one of the strongest holds of the Night.

Labor 1 Lib 0 SA Best 0

Ramsay: Formerly held by Mike Rann until he left politics and comfortably held by Zoe Bettinson by 17-18 percent. This seat covers the Salisbury and Paralowie area and is another strong Labor hunting ground. Will be interesting to see if there is any blowback for Zoe’s housing portfolio ministry which would impact on her electorate and I think SA Best will finish second in this seat but another safe Labor hold here.

Labor 2 Lib 0 SA Best 0

Cheltenham: Held by the current premier Jay Weatherill this area takes in the North West area of Findon, Cheltenham and Woodville. This is again Labor heartland and the fact that Jay Weatherill has always been well liked, indeed you could argue his popularity outflanks the popularity of the Labor Party itself, something that you could argue happens in reverse on the Liberal side with at times support for the Liberal Party outperforming the popularity of Steven Marshall. The interesting factor in this electorate is how will the Candidate Had Enuff will go as he has been able to frustrate the Labor Party at times in this campaign with his campaign van and successful protest on the SA Labor Bus. This will be a strong hold for the Labor Party.

Labor 3 Lib 0 SA Best 0

West Torrens: Another safe Labor seat held by the Treasurer Tom Koutsantonis. This area takes in the area of Thebarton and Mile End through to Brooklyn Park. This is the first seat that actually had Liberal voting polling booths at the last election (2). This was always going to be a safe hold for the Labor Party and the lack of an SA Best Candidate makes this an even stronger hold for the Labor Party.

Labor 4 Lib 0 SA Best 0

Playford: An interesting seat in that it’s redrawing to Mawson Lakes and more out into Para Hills has seen the end of the career for a Labor Stalwart in Jack Snelling who has been the at times controversial health minister. The Labor candidate now is Michael Brown a long term Labor backroom dealer. The redrawn seat is still on a healthy 11 percent  and while Mawson Lakes may be a more Liberal inclined area the rest of the electorate of Parafield Gardens, Para Hills and Parafield are all strong Labor voting heartland (3) that should more than make up for the loss of the strong Labor voting Pooraka and Ingle Farm area. The one interesting factor here is SA Best, can they make some hay out of Labor maybe taking the northern suburbs for granted for too long, I think that may take the margin under 10 percent but this should still be a strong Labor hold.

Labor 5 Lib 0 SA Best 0

Elizabeth: The seat has regained it’s traditional electoral name having lost the suburb of Little Para to the electorate of King which returns this seat to it’s traditional area of Elizabeth and surrounding areas. Since 2010 the seat has been held for by Lee Odenwalder. This is another seat where the inclination is a safe Labor hold but I am intrigued by how SA Best go in this seat with the recent closure of Holden now leaving a lot of people in the seat with uncertain working futures. Indeed it has been Nick Xenophon who has regularly pointed out the need for more to be done on youth unemployment in this area that has at times neared 30 percent. All that being said I would still rank this as a safe Labor hold.

Labor 6 Lib 0 SA Best 0

Reynell: Another safe Labor seat this one being held by Disability Minister Katrine Hildyard. This is the southern version of some of the northern seats I have been talking about with low socio economic background and typically very safe Labor heartland. This seat stretches from Reynella to Lonsdale and Christies Beach. Again I am slightly intrigued by the SA Best Factor although Kingston the subsequent federal seat was not their strongest result and the other issue that may cut through is some reports of bullying by members in her office (4) but I don’t think that is going to cut through even though for mine it’s a bad look for a bullying culture in the disabilities portfolio. Another safe Labor hold although we are now in the under 10 percent range.

Labor 7 Lib 0 SA Best 0

Kaurna: A rarity in this election in that only three parties are standing members in this seat, namely Labor Liberal and the Greens. The seat is now held by Chris Picton who entered the police ministry in 2017. This seat covers the southern areas of Port Noarlunga to Maslin Beach. While Law and Order is a typically strong area for right of centre parties it’s hard to see Liberal overcoming Labor on a 8-9 percent margin especially when Labor will get Liberal preferences. I expect a safe Labor hold.

Labor 8 Lib 0 SA Best 0

Safe Labor seats that will swing heavily but will still be held

Port Adelaide: A very safe Labor seat at 12.5% that is currently held by Susan Close who is the Higher Education and Skills Minister. Theoretically this should be a Labor hold however the Port Adelaide Mayor Gary Johanson has again entered the political fray as the SA Best candidate having previously run as both an Independent and Liberal in this area. I would note however that despite people being excited about SA Best doing well in the Port Adelaide Federal Electorate they ended up with only 19 percent of the vote. I think the 25 percent that Gary Johnson got in the 2012 Port Adelaide By Election (5) is doable and if the Liberals could then get 15-20 percent it might make things interesting. I am still predicting a Labor hold.

Labor 9 Lib 0 SA Best 0

Taylor: This seat was polled as part of the Mad March polls in the Advertiser on Monday and the 2PP vote was 51-49 in Labor favour. This seat covers the northern parts of Elizabeth all the way up to the more Liberal voting area of Two Wells. The seat is held by John Gee (6) who was in the abolished seat of Napier but has managed to seek a “safer” option in Taylor. The SA Best threat and it seems the outer northern area to rural northern area is part of that which is not necessarily expected at the campaigns start is taking hold in this seat. I think this seat will be line ball on the night of the election but my inclination is that Labor will just hold onto this seat.

Labor 10 Lib 0 SA Best 0

Safe Labor Seats that will swing parties

Florey: Florey is a heavily redistributed seat that once covered the more North East areas of Modbury, Modbury North and Valley View and now extends into the former safe Labor heartlands of Playford which was held by Jack Snelling. Jack Snelling argued that his home now fell into Florey and so he should switch to Florey. This angered Francis Bedford who said she would stand in the seat as an Independent, after a while it looked like Francis would win the seat and so Jack Snelling has announced he will stand aside leaving Rik Morris to stand for Labor. The polling that came out in the electorate in the campaign had Francis up over Labor 57-43 2PP and I can’t see her not winning this seat.

Labor 10 Lib 0 SA Best 0 Independent 1

Enfield: This is a once safe Labor heartland that in 2006 was held by Labor on a 74.5% to 25.5% (7). The seat has gradually been whittled down at the last few elections to the fact that the Enfield, Kilburn and Sefton Park seat now is only held by just under 6%. The reason this seat is at play is that the SA Best candidate Carol Martin has been very popular on the ground while John Rau as Attorney General has seeming made a lot of enemies during his time in the portfolio. This is particularly the case for the Greens who are preferencing Labor behind SA Best (8). It is for that reason that I think the SA Best candidate will cause a slight boilover and take this seat.

Labor 10 Lib 0 SA Best 1 Independent 1

Giles: This is the only non Metropolitan seat held by Labor that stretches up north and west to the WA and NT borders. The seat encompasses Whyalla as the main part of the seat which Labor heartland provides the margin of 5.7 percent that is otherwise is strong Liberal voting ground (9). This seat is another northern Labor heartland area that has been disrupted by a strong SA Best candidate, this time the former Whyalla Deputy mayor Tom Antonio who has been a Liberal in previous times. This seat was also polled in the Advertiser polls with a 2pp of 50-50 between SA Best and Labor, however I think the SA Best candidate will get a large amount of the Liberal preference given his former party ties and so I think SA Best will take this seat.

Labor 10 Lib 0 SA Best 2 Independent 1

Marginal Labor Seats

Wright: The former seat of Jennifer Rankine who was the long standing Education Minister her retirement now brings in the Labor candidate Blaire Boyer. This seat has been majorly redistributed to cover Brahma Lodge north to Salisbury East up to Wynne Vale and Redwood Park. My Inclination of this seat is that while it will be close I can’t see Labor not holding onto this seat, particularly given the voting patterns of people in this seat in 2014 (10).

Labor 11 Lib 0 SA Best 2 Independent 1

Badcoe: The former seat of Ashford this seat is a Labor seat on a margin of 4.2 percent having obtained a slight buffer from the redistribution. The seat encompasses the south west of the outer city going from Keswick to Edwardstown and Ascot Park. My read of this seat is that the seat is made up of more lower socio economic areas that I would be inclined to suggest would favour Labor and so I predict they will hold this seat.

Labor 12 Lib 0 SA Best 2 Independent 1

Light: The Labor seat that encompasses much of Gawler this seat has a growing demographic as the area continues to grow. While that growth may one day favour a Liberal win in this seat at the last election Tony Piccolo was popular enough to get a swing of 3.2 percent to him (11) taking his seat to a not so scary 3.9 percent. Given Piccolo has held this seat since 1985 my prediction is he will continue to hold this seat post election.

Labor 13 Lib 0 SA Best 2 Independent 1

Torrens: Somewhat surprising that this seat is marginal given that Labor have held this seat for all bar one year since it was first created in 1993 (12). This seat is now held by Dana Wortley the wife of Upper House President Russel Wortley. This seat covers mostly Labor strong areas such as Gilles Plains but a redistribution has seen it gain elements of Vale Park which is strong Liberal territory. What will hurt Liberals here is that both the Greens and Dignity Party will give their preferences back to Labor over the Liberals and for that reason I think Labor will hold this seat.

Labor 14 Lib 0 SA Best 2 Independent 1

Lee: Another seat held by a potential Labor future leader in Stephen Mulligan and he would have been worried by an early poll that had this seat on 50-50 2PP. This seat covers a wide range of the political spectrum from a high Labor vote in Semaphore Park to a safe Liberal area of West Lakes. I might of been convinced of this seat falling to the Liberal Party however the Conservatives in return for preferences in the upper house have preferenced Labor ahead of Liberal in this area, as a result my inclination is that Labor will just hold onto this seat. SA Best preferences in this seat will also be key.

Labor 15 Lib 0 SA Best 2 Independent 1

King: My electorate! A new seat that has been created to replace the abolished Napier that covers a vast amount of the North East of Adelaide stretching from Safe Labor in Salisbury East and Salisbury Park to the marginally Labor bits of Greenwith and Golden Grove to the very safe Liberal areas of Sampsons Flat and One Tree Hill. I have seen correspondence from all 3 major candidates from Liberal Labor and SA Best and they all seem like they would make good members. Labor seem to have gone for a bigger spend in the electorate which will impress some and so while I’m not sure who will win my leaning would be Labor to win this seat although SA Best will play a key in this seat.

Labor 16 Lib 0 SA Best 2 Independent 1

Hurtle Vale: The renamed election of Fisher which was held for many years by the charismatic and popular member Bob Such this seat was won by Labor in the 2014 by election after he sadly passed away from a Brain Tumor. The redistribution has taken what would be a marginal Liberal seat to a very marginal Labor seat (13). You now have the factors of a possible sophomore surge for this seat versus Liberal and SA Best making a serious run at this seat. In the last week of campaigning Liberals have gained some confidence in this seat and as such this is the only Labor seat I am prepared to give as a loss to the Liberals.

Labor 16 Lib 1 SA Best 2 Independent 1

Notional Liberal Seats

Newland: The North Eastern seat that takes in Tea Tree Gully all the way out into the hills of Paracombe has been held by Tom Kenyon since 2010 and he has impressively held this seat when the state swing would suggest he should lose the seat. A further redistribution this time to push some of the more Labor heartland areas of Modbury into Florey has made this seat notionally Liberal. Now if anyone could hold onto this seat then Tom Kenyon would be it but the word on the ground is that the Liberals are increasingly confident of taking this seat and so my thought is they may just take this seat in a result that could play a big role in deciding government.

Labor 16 Lib 2 SA Best 2 Independent 1

Mawson: An interesting seat that now sits on a margin of 3.2% notionally Liberal that is held by Leon Bignall the Tourism Minister. As part of the redistribution the seat gained the rural areas of Kangaroo Island and Fleurieu Peninsula which are strong Liberal voting areas (14). As Tourism Minister Leon Bignall has been able to pork barrel announcements for the strong tourism areas of McLaren Vale and now KI and that will help him in the seat. He also has been in dire straits in the last two elections but has however managed to hold his seat. This seat was polled in the last week of the campaign with a 50-50 margin and the Greens getting 7 percent in this area in that poll may help him get over the line if SA Best preferences favour Labor like they did in the 2016 Federal Election. My prediction is a lineball Labor hold.

Labor 17 Lib 2 SA Best 2 Independent 1

Colton: Was held by the Labor Party for many years under Paul Caica however his retirement and a strong redistribution has made this a Liberal seat of almost 4 percent. In the wake of that retirement Liberal have favoured a celebrity candidate in Matt Cowdrey Paralympic gold medallist. The seat takes in Fulham Gardens to Glenelg and West Beach which are strong Liberal seats. My inclination is that the Liberal Party will gain this seat.

Labor 17 Lib 3 SA Best 2 Independent 1

Elder: A labor held seat by Annabel Dignance in 2014 after she had 2 failed stints at winning the federal seat of Boothby. The 2014 Contest was controversial after Carolyn Habib had Labor flyers posted out saying no-one can trust a Habib which had clear Muslim slander at them. The seat is situated south of the city going from strong Labor area in Mitchell Park to strong Liberal voting areas of Grange. Annabel Dignance on hearing that this seat would become a strong Liberal marginal of 4.3 percent tried to seat hop but was unsuccessful and so had to return to Elder with her tail between her legs. I would hence suspect that Liberal will take this seat.

Labor 17 Lib 4 SA Best 2 Independent 1

Marginal Liberal Seats that they will lose to Labor

Adelaide: Adelaide is a marginal Liberal seat that was taken in 2010 by Rachel Sanderson a 13 percent swing against then popular Education Minister Jane Lomax Smith. Sanderson was then able to maintain her seat in 2014 and despite a redistribution will still go into this election as favourites. However as the campaign has gone on Labor have put large resources in this seat and Jay Weatherill has announced a further tram extension that will be popular in this seat. Add to that the New RAH, OBahn extension and Adelaide Oval Redevelopment and this is a seat I think the Liberals will lose tomorrow.

Labor 18 Lib 4 SA Best 2 Independent 1

Marginal Liberal Seats that they will lose to SA Best

Hartley: The seat that is the home of Nick Xenophon. An interesting election campaign where the Liberal incumbent has gradually become more confident of their chances of winning the seat. The seat covers the more Labor areas of Hectorville and Campbelltown stretching to the Liberal area of Athelstone and Magill. I think two factors are at play here, one Vincent Tarzia should get a sophomore swing from the electorate and as a rule Candidates who have run before don’t go well on the second time around which I think haunts the Labor Party where Grace Portolesi is trying to get her seat back. The poll published had Liberal ahead of Nick 51-49 but I wonder if there will be a late push to ensure Nick gets into Parliament.

Labor 18 Lib 4 SA Best 3 Independent 1

Marginal Liberal Seats that they will hold

Black: A marginal Liberal seat held by 2.6% by the Liberal party in place of the old seat of  Mitchell. The seat of Black stretches along the south beach coast from O’Halloran Hill to Hallet Cove. The Liberal candidate David Speirs has gone from winning the seat in 2014 to already in the Shadow Cabinet and in the wake of no SA Best candidate to split the Liberal and Labor vote suggests to me that the Liberals should keep this seat.

Labor 18 Lib 5 SA Best 3 Independent 1

Gibson: A marginal seat in the south covering Brighton to Oaklands Park this seat was gained by Corey Wingard in 2014 he has previous star recognition from being a sports journalist with Channel 10 and has again gone from being first elected in one election to now being a shadow minister. This seat I think would be a comfortable re hold for Liberals except you have the reentrance of Kris Hanna.  Kris Hanna was a Labor member for the former seat of Mitchell that I mentioned above and then a Green before quitting them due to annoyance at not getting the top spot of the legislative council ticket and then becoming an independent member before finally losing the seat to Labor in 2010. He is now the mayor of Marion and so has a local profile which will help him and Labor would help him preferences. This is definitely a lineball seat but my inkling is that Wingard will hold.

Labor 18 Lib 6 SA Best 3 Independent 1

Dunstan: It is an odd peculiarity in SA Politics that the seat named after the best SA Labor Premier is held by the Liberal leader and Playford the longest serving premier from the Liberal Party is a safe as nails Labor seat. Dunstan has previously been called Norwood and was long held by Labor despite being in a rich suburban area surrounded by safe as nails Liberal seats. Steven Marshall was elected in 2010 as a moderate Liberal from the Chris Pyne faction and has had some luck in getting a higher greens preference than most Liberals as a result. The seat was polled on Tuesday and had Marshall holding the seat 53.6 to 46.4 and while that’s closer than you’d want for a leader I think he will win that seat.

Labor 18 Lib 7 SA Best 3 Independent 1

Safe Liberal seats that will fall to SA Best

It wouldn’t surprise me if a seat were to fall to SA Best on the night in this category but my read of the land is that SA Best will just fall short.

Safe Liberal seats that will swing massively but be held

Morialta: Morialta is a traditional Liberal seat that only fell to Labor in the Rann Slide of 2006 before going back to John Gardner. It goes into this election with a rather meaningless 13% margin against Labor. The seat stretches east from Rostrevor to Lobethal and Birdwood in the hills. This seat falls into Mayo heartland and a lot of people thought would be one of the first seats to fall to SA Best at this election from the Liberals. The Liberals however I think have sandbagged their hills electorates well and while the 2PP taken in the campaign is close at 52-48 that is a better position than they were in and so I think they will hold Morialta.

Labor 18 Lib 8 SA Best 3 Independent 1

Heysen: Heysen was held by the former Liberal leader Isobel Redmond who is retiring at this election. Late last year with SA Best polling over 30 percent in polls and Isobel taking her personal vote with her it was thought this would be another hills seat where Sharkie’s federal vote would get another win. The area of Heysen covers Stirling to Strathalbyn and other rural areas surrounding that in the hills. The poll in the campaign had the margin at 51-49 Liberal over SA Best but I think Labor will get second in that seat on Independents and Greens preferences at which point SA Best preferences would get the Liberal Party over the line.

Labor 18 Lib 9 SA Best 3 Independent 1

Narungga: A safe Liberal seat that was held by Steve Griffiths before he retired and now is looking to be won by Fraser Ellis. The seat covers Yorke Peninsula and the area is strongly Liberal voting however the retirement of the member and the fact that Grey swung behind SA Best to the point where Rowan Ramsay nearly lost his seat makes this another seat to watch although I think it will be comfortably held.

Labor 18 Lib 10 SA Best 3 Independent 1

Chaffey: Chaffey is a Conservative leaning seat in the Riverland encompassing Berri Barmera and other surrounding areas. The seat gained notoriety in that from 1997 to 2010 it elected Karlene Maywald (15) who went against the Conservative leaning of the seat to back Mike Rann’s government and indeed became a Minister of the Rann government. In that sense the presence of the SA Best Member being an adviser for Maywald is intriguing in how much of a vote she might obtain. I think though the Liberal margin of 24.4% is too much to overcome although SA Best will far outperform what Labor could ever pull in this seat.

Labor 18 Lib 11 SA Best 3 Independent 1

Finniss: Finniss is a safe Liberal seat that loses it’s Kangaroo Island part of the electorate to effectively become a Victor Harbour and Goolwa seat. Again this seat falls entirely in the area of Mayo and as such there are questions as to whether the SA Best candidate can do damage in the seat. The former member Michael Pengilly retired and his replacement is David Basham who with no challenge from Pengilly who threatened to stand against a Liberal candidate without rural experience (16). I think Victor Harbor as it continues to be a growth for families and less of a retirement hub will change the landscape of the electorate but for the time being it’s hard not to see a Liberal hold here.

Labor 18 Lib 12 SA Best 3 Independent 1

Schubert: Schubert is a safe Liberal seat stretching into the north of Gawler covering Nuriopta, Tanunda and surrounding northern towns. The seat is currently held by Stephen Knoll who has quickly raised from first time candidate to a key part of the shadow ministry with Policing and Corrections. This is another country seat where SA Best will poll well but again I don’t see a circumstance where such a strong local candidate will lose his seat.

Labor 18 Lib 13 SA Best 3 Independent 1

Morphett: Another seat where some shenanigans at the pre selection level have caused what should have been a safe seat into a much tougher contest. Duncan McFetridge was the Liberal member for the seat however he lost preselection to Stephen Paterson a Holdfast Bay mayor and former Collingwood player (17). The seat covers Plympton down to Glenelg, Glenelg South and Somerton Park. The seat was polled during the election and had the seat at 55-45 to Liberals over Labor but the Labor party will probably fall to third and my guess is that Mc Fetridge will drop out first give half of his preferences to Liberal, some to SA Best and some to Labor and then that will push SA Best to 2nd but I don’t think close enough to win the seat. I think therefore Liberal will hold but again it’s a seat that could go either way.

Labor 18 Lib 14 SA Best 3 Independent 1

Davenport: A traditional Liberal seat from 1970 to current this is another Liberal seat that should stay in the parties hands although their current member has jumped across to Waite to try and take what was then Martin Hamilton Smith’s seat who jumped from the Liberal Party to the Independents spot in return for the Labor Ministerial role. Davenport stretches from Bedford Park to Aberfoyle Park in the South and out to the rural zone of Ironbank. SA Best did alright but not so well in the Federal seat of Boothby so my prediction is that Liberal hold onto Davenport with new member Steve Murray.

Labor 18 Lib 15 SA Best 3 Independent 1

Waite: An Interesting seat in that it has long been the hunting ground for Martin Hamilton Smith, a one time Liberal leader who as I alluded to earlier became an Independent in favour of obtaining Labor ministry. Waite covers from the edge of the Adelaide Hills to the south of the city which is nicely shown in a map here (18). Another interesting part of this electorate is that the former member of Davenport Sam Duluk has switched seats to stand for this electorate although in fairness to him he could claim that the redistribution has moved a lot of his electorate to Waite now. SA Best again are a good shot of winning this seat and their candidate is a renewable energy specialist, weirdly with that in mind however the Greens are preferencing the Liberal Party over the SA Best candidate in this seat and for me I think that pushes Liberals over the line.

Labor 18 Lib 16 SA Best 3 Independent 1

Kavel: A very safe Liberal seat that spans Mount Barker, Hahndorf, Nairne and other surrounding areas in the Adelaide Hills. The seat is famous in that it was the home of former Liberal Premier John Olsen who held the seat until he had to resign from parliament in disgrace in 2002 (19). Again this is another seat that falls entirely into the Mayo Federal Electorate and as of last year a seat the Liberal Party were very worried about losing to the SA Best party particularly with Mark Goldsworthy retiring from the seat having held the seat since 2002. I think this will be a close seat back I am backing Dan Cregan to pick up this seat.

Labor 18 Lib 17 SA Best 3 Independent 1

Hammond: Another very safe Liberal seat that covers the region of Mount Lofty to Tailem Bend, Murray Bridge and Mannum and all the way east to the Victorian seat. This has been held by the Liberals Adrian Pederik since 2008 election and so that incumbency will help stave off a SA Best push for this seat.

Labor 18 Lib 18 SA Best 3 Independent 1

Safe Liberal Seats that they will hold

Most of the seats above could end up easily falling in this category if SA Best tank on the night but I’ve classified the following seats as seats where SA Best $5 or worse at winning the seat and Labor will never win these seats

Unley: Unley is a very rich area that has been Liberal held since 1992 where prior to was actually Labor held between 1963-1992 ( I always joked that the union heavies would not be seen dead living in the poorer areas of their constituents were and so they’d live in rich areas and make them more marginal than they’d otherwise be). Unley covers the more Labor areas of Wayville and Goodwood to the high Liberal voting areas of Myrtle Bank and Glenside. Unley is currently on a margin of just a shade under 10%. David Pisoni has held the seat since 2008 and has been in the ministry ever since in first Eduction and then Transport and Infrastructure (20).

Labor 18 Lib 19 SA Best 3 Independent 1

Bragg: Bragg is a very safe Liberal seat held by the longstanding Liberal Deputy leader Vickie Chapman who has become the attack dog who really holds Labor to account allowing Steven Marshall to not always have to attack in Parliament. Bragg covers the south east of the city from Kensington Park to Glen Osmand and out towards the Cleland Recreational Park. Bragg might be a seat that SA Best could have done alright in but for some reason SA Best chose to not contest this seat and as a result this will be a comfortable Liberal hold.

Labor 18 Lib 20 SA Best 3 Independent 1

Stuart: A seat that was once a Labor seat has gradually become more and more safe Liberal terrain until last election it was a 20 percent Liberal hold. The electorate of Stuart covers Port Augusta and then north of there to the NT border. It is that geography that explains why the seat is being contested by only three parties namely the Libs, Labor and Greens. The current member is Dan van Holst Pellekaan who has held the seat since 2010 and has been in the shadow ministry ever since, he has also been touted as a potential leader replacement should Steven Marshall lose the election tomorrow. This will be a comfortable Liberal retain

Labor 18 Lib 21 SA Best 3 Independent 1

Mackillop: (21) gives an idea of just how safe Liberal held Mackillop last election with some booths recording a 2PP result above 90 something that is only repeated in the next seat I am going to mention. Mackillop covers all of the South East of the state save the corner of the state that falls into the electorate of Mount Gambier. SA Best are standing in this seat and Mitch Williams the current Liberal member is retiring but the seat won’t go from a 26.7% Liberal margin to a SA Best seat and so I think Nick McBride will comfortably win this seat.

Labor 18 Lib 22 SA Best 3 Independent 1

Flinders: Flinders is a VERY safe Liberal seat covering the Eyre Peninsula out from Port Lincoln to the Western Australia border. The seat at the last election had polling booths with a 93% 2PP for the Liberals versus Labor and with only 4 candidates standing with no SA Best amongst those 4 seats this will be a very comfortable hold for Peter Treloar who has been in Parliament since 2010.

Labor 18 Lib 23 SA Best 3 Independent 1

Notional Safe Liberal Seats that will return Independents

Frome: Frome is a notional Liberal seat if you looked at a Labor vs Liberal 2PP contest however the seat has long been held by an Independent Geoff Brock who took the seat off the Liberals in 2009. Before then the seat was held by one time Liberal Premier Rob Kerin who had a short stint as Premier before losing the 2002 state election to Mike Rann and then he quit Parliament after losing the leadership following the Rann Slide in 2006. The seat has a very distinct split to it which you can see in (22) where the mining town Port Pirie is very mining dependent and therefore heavily favours the Independent and Labor candidates versus the Claire Valley which is strong as nails Liberal Inclined. Geoff Brock comfortably held his seat at the last election but it is interesting to see how much skin he lost for backing Jay Weatherill in the last election in return for yummy Hawaiian Pizza and a ministerial role. Indeed the polling in the campaign has Geoff Brock leading the race 52-48 with Labor preferences helping him overcome a fairly hefty first preference lead by the Liberals. With all that in mind I think Geoff Brock will hold his seat.

Labor 18 Lib 23 SA Best 3 Independent 2

Mount Gambier: Mount Gambier is an interesting seat in that if it was a 2PP race it would be a comfortable Liberal seat vs the Labor Party but has a tendency to vote in Independent member. Indeed at the last election Troy Bell won the seat as a Liberal with a 24 percent margin over Labor however before then the seat was held by two independents who were screwed over by Liberal nominations (23) firstly by Rory McEwen from 1997 to 2010 who first backed a Liberal Government and then joined Rann’s cabinet from 2002 to 2009. The seat was then won in 2010 by Don Pegler who subsequently lost the seat in 2014. Troy Bell looked like he would get a chance to re contest this seat in 2018 however he is now facing several criminal charges that caused him to resign from the Liberal Party to become an Independent. Somehow despite these criminal charges a poll in the campaign saw him comfortably re winning the seat over the Liberals although I think Incumbency has served him well as was reported in a piece on him in (24).

Labor 18 Lib 23 SA Best 3 Independent 3

Final Prediction

So my final Prediction is 18 seats for Labor Liberals to fall one short of majority on 23, 3 SA Best candidates and 3 Independents. That Liberal number could dramatically change depending on how SA Best do in some of the Safe Liberal seats I mentioned but at this point my inclination is that Liberals will win office on the backing of Independent Troy Bell who in the above interview I referenced said he’d never see himself backing a Labor Government. The Liberals would then need a speaker and Geoff Brock or Nick Xenophon could then be used to prop up a majority in order to ensure all votes weren’t deadlocked 23-23.

Upper House Prediction

The Upper House in South Australia has 22 members with 11 members on rotation 8 year terms meaning each election 11 senators are up for re election. At this election 4 Labor, 4 Liberal and an Australian Conservative/ former Family First Party, Greens member and Dignity Party are standing for re-election. Now the Liberal Party have a strong ticket (25) with all of their 4 current upper house members recontesting this election so I’d back them to win re-election, Labor only have one current member re-running but I’d expect them to only drop back one member to 3, I’d predict SA Best will pick up 3 seats and they are running a pretty strong Upper House ticket (26). That then leaves a 3 way battle for the final upper house spot between the Greens, Conservatives and Dignity party. I’d love to see Kelly Vincent get back in as she has done a lot of work for the Disabled community but the Greens are running candidates in all 47 seats and what that allows is for candidates to hand out how to vote cards for the Upper House seats in all of these electorates, something that can’t be done by the other parties and as a result I would think that favours Tammy Franks from the Greens. So to summarise that’s 4 Libs, 3 ALP, 3 SA Best and 1 Greens for the Upper House.


(1): http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/sa-election-2018/guide/pendulum/

(2): https://www.pollbludger.net/sa2018/WestTorrens.htm

(3): https://www.pollbludger.net/sa2018/Playford.htm

(4): https://indaily.com.au/news/2018/03/15/premiers-office-ignored-warnings-over-ministers-toxic-workplace/

(5): http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/sa-election-2018/guide/port/

(6): https://www.pollbludger.net/sa2018/Taylor.htm

(7): http://www.abc.net.au/elections/sa/2006/results/enfi.htm

(8): https://indaily.com.au/news/politics/2018/02/26/rau-faces-uphill-battle-greens-wield-knife/

(9): https://www.pollbludger.net/sa2018/Giles.htm

(10): https://www.pollbludger.net/sa2018/Wright.htm

(11): https://www.pollbludger.net/sa2018/Light.htm

(12): https://www.pollbludger.net/sa2018/Torrens.htm

(13): https://www.pollbludger.net/sa2018/HurtleVale.htm

(14): https://www.pollbludger.net/sa2018/Mawson.htm

(15): https://www.pollbludger.net/sa2018/Chaffey.htm

(16): https://www.pollbludger.net/sa2018/Finniss.htm

(17): https://www.pollbludger.net/sa2018/Morphett.htm

(18): https://www.pollbludger.net/sa2018/Waite.htm

(19): https://www.pollbludger.net/sa2018/Kavel.htm

(20): https://www.pollbludger.net/sa2018/Unley.htm

(21): https://www.pollbludger.net/sa2018/MacKillop.htm

(22): https://www.pollbludger.net/sa2018/Frome.htm

(23): https://www.pollbludger.net/sa2018/MountGambier.htm

(24): https://indaily.com.au/news/local/2018/03/06/streetview-sermons-mount/

(25): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candidates_of_the_South_Australian_state_election,_2018

(26): https://sabest.org.au/candidates/legislative-council/


Tasmanian Election wrap-up and SA Election Polls

I have been hesitant to write anything on the Tasmania election up until this point as the results are still not final but with the SA Election coming up this weekend I thought it was worth writing something about Tasmania first. I will also add some thoughts on the last two weeks of polls to come out of South Australia and a preference deal between the SA Conservatives and Labor.

The Tasmania Election was held on the 3rd of March and as the polls predicted the Liberal Government were returned to power all be it in a slightly reduced majority. At this point there are two seats in doubt but the Liberal Party have 13 definite seats, Labor have 9 seats at this point and the Greens have 1 seat. The election was a bit of a return to a two party result as the Independents didn’t get close to a seat which is disappointing for Jacquie in that she couldn’t even match Clive Palmers vote in the last election and the Greens nosedived to only one seat and around 10 percent of the vote disappointing for a party getting close to 22 percent in 2010. Labor are spinning like crazy that they nearly won the election and managed to theoretically push Liberal towards minority government with potentially a one seat majority if they stay on 13 out of 25 seats but that ignores a few facts. Firstly while the Labor party increased their vote by 5 percent (1) most of that vote has come from the Greens which can be seen as voters who were sick of the Labor Party back in 2010 returning back to their Labor base. Also the Liberal Party managed to get 50 percent of the vote on their own, nearly 18 percent better than the Labor Party so the notion the election was close is dodgy. I think the fact that the Liberal Party lost 1 maybe two seats is because they had such a good result last time getting 4 seats in one electorate that was always going to be hard to replicate and with no Federal Liberal representation after the 2016 Federal Election the Labor Party should do better with more Federal Representation to implement national pressure for better outcomes. That being said I don’t think any Federal Implications can be made from this result because the Liberal Party are still in severe problems federally and with a Sophomore effect for some of their Tasmanian members it’s hard to see the Liberals winning any seats back in Tasmania in the next federal election.

Party Primary votes  % Swing Seats Change
Liberal 168,072 50.3 −1.0 13 −2
Labor 109,120 32.6 +5.3 9 +2
Greens 34,403 10.3 −3.5 1 −2
Lambie 10,565 3.2 +3.2 0 0
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers 7,628 2.3 +2.3 0 0
T4T – Tasmanians 4 Tasmania 984 0.3 +0.3 0 0
Independent 3,604 1.1 −0.2 0 0
Total 334,376 23

Onto the seat by seat results the results are clear in the Electorates of Braddon where it is 3 Liberals and 2 Labor a loss of one seat for the Liberal Party, Denison which has in the past been the Greens heartland and impressively the Liberals kept their second member with two Labor and 1 Green member and Lyons where the Liberals have kept the status quo of 3 Liberal and 2 Labor. That leaves the seats of Bass and Franklin as unknown seats where in Bass it is currently 3 Liberal and 1 Labor with the Greens and Labor in the fight for the last seat and maybe the Liberals in the hunt for 4 although that appears unlikely. Then in Franklin which is the home of Liberal Premier Will Hodgman it is currently 2-2 for Liberal and Labor and then the question is can Will Hodgman elect a third member off his 2 plus quotas he polled or will the Greens take the seat. See (2) for a good summary of the current state of votes but the leaning for me is that the vote will end up at 14-9-2. Below are the current vote statuses for each electorate:

Braddon (3)

Party Vote Swing Quota Members Elected
Liberal Party
3.36 3
Australian Labor Party
1.64 2
Jacqui Lambie Network
0.36 0
0.25 0
Tasmanian Greens
0.21 0
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
0.15 0
Tasmanians 4 Tasmania
0.03 0
0.00 0


Bass (4)

Liberal Party
3.53 3
Australian Labor Party
1.58 1
Tasmanian Greens
0.56 0
Jacqui Lambie Network
0.28 0
0.06 0
0.00 0

Denison (5)

Australian Labor Party
2.51 2
Liberal Party
2.26 2
Tasmanian Greens
1.05 1
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
0.11 0
Tasmanians 4 Tasmania
0.07 0
0.00 0

Franklin (6)

Liberal Party
2.90 2
Australian Labor Party
2.06 2
Tasmanian Greens
0.86 0
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
0.17 0


Lyons (7)

Liberal Party
3.03 3
Australian Labor Party
1.98 2
Tasmanian Greens
0.39 0
Jacqui Lambie Network
0.33 0
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
0.24 0
0.03 0

Switching up to the South Australian Election race and both today and last Monday there were more polls in local seats. The polls from last week focussed on the main independent seats at play this election. This was good to see as if Nick Xenophon does not do well on Saturday night both major parties could deal with Independent Parties instead to get them to the magical 24 seat projection. The seats polled were Florey in the North East of Adelaide where Francis Bedford was screwed over by Labor in preselection so she is now standing as an Independent/ proxy SA Best member, Frome where Geoff Brock holds the Port Pirie seat that would normally be Liberal inclined but Geoff Brock has favoured the Labor Party in dealings and Morphett which is a naturally Liberal seat in the South of Adelaide but some more pre selection shenanigans now has Duncan McFetridge standing as an independent. (8) has more specific numbers but in Florey Francis Bedford is leading 57-43 over Labor with a first preference vote of 36 to Labor’s 31, while the Liberals are on 21 percent vote and assumedly would preference Francis over Labor, the greens are on five percent which shows that SA is not a strong hunting ground for them. In Frome Geoff Brock is leading the Liberals 52-48 2PP but the Liberals are in a good position with a 44 percent first preference position that Geoff Brock would be nervous with 36 percent of the first preference vote, Labor are polling 15 percent and so you’d assume about 10 percent of that would favour Brock. In Morphett Duncan is in some trouble in 4th spot with the Liberal candidate leading Labor 55-45 on preferences, however order of elimination will be key here as the first preference votes are Liberals 38, Labor 22, SA Best 17 and Duncan on 16, however depending on how preferences go if SA Best or Duncan could pass Labor for 2nd after the order is eliminated then Labor Preferences might make the contest tighter than 55-45. The other Independent is Troy Bell in the seat of Mount Gambier, he is also a former Liberal member but resigned when it was revealed he was facing many criminal charges. For some reasons locals seem to be galvanising behind him and he appears favoured to hold his seat as an Independent. So on my read of the situation a win in Morphett and Mount Gambier for the Independents would probably then favour Liberal in hung parliament, Francis Bedford would seem inclined to back Labor and Geoff Brock is line ball and I think he’d favour the party with more seats on the night.

Today in the last release of polls before the election four more seats were surveyed. The article was paywalled so I had to note down the poll results on the Facebook live video this afternoon. The seats covered were the Liberal leaders seat of Dunstan where Steve Marshall sits, Hartley where Nick Xenophon is hoping to shake up the political system by winning the Liberal held seat, Mawson which is held by the Labor tourism minister Leon Bignell but has been majorly redistributed to be a notional Liberal seat of Mawson by 3.2% and the safe Labor seat of Taylor which is north of Elizabeth and is held by 8.8%. In Dunstan Steven Marshall appears to have seen off the Labor threat to take the seat with a 53.6-46.4 2PP lead over Labor with primaries of Libs 44, ALP 30, SA Best 15 and Greens 6 which you’d expect the Liberals to get enough preferences from SA Best to hold that seat. Hartley is a lineball result with Vincent Tarzia just favoured to hold on 51-49 2PP with Libs 38 SA Best 30 (they’d probably want to be closer to 35) ALP 22 and Greens 5 so this is close but with unfavourable preference deals for Nick Xenophon I’d expect enough Labor and Greens preferences to leak to the Liberal Party to hold that seat. In Mawson the Labor Party have managed to turn the notional Liberal seat into a dead heat on preferences with Liberals on 37, Labor on 30, SA Best on 20 and Greens on 7. Interestingly an earlier poll of this seat had SA Best on 38% so the SA Best party have definitely struggled to keep up their momentum during this campaign. I do think Nick as Premier candidate has struggled to show why he should lead the state and he has done best when he’s been able to act more as a negotiator and when he could hold a party to fault over an issue they slipped over on. SA Best preferences at the Federal election broke 60-40 to Labor and so if that happens that will help Labor in this seat. In this campaign the starting assumption was that Liberal would find a lot of their hills and eastern suburb seats at risk of being taken by SA Best candidates replicating the results of Rebekah Sharkie in the 2016 Mayo Federal Election. This appears to be possibly falling short but I’ve wondered and now experts are starting to wonder if the real battleground is in Labor seats where unemployment has risen and while voters would never vote Liberal they may be tempted to vote for an SA Best candidate. It is in that spirit that Galaxy Advertiser decided to poll Taylor a safe Labor seat just north of Elizabeth, the 2PP vote suggest I may be onto something as Labor are only leading SA Best 51-49 off Primaries of Labor 39, SA Best 29, Liberal 22 and Greens 6, now if SA Best get 60 percent of Liberal vote and 40 percent of Greens vote that puts them at a range where they could threaten this seat. Interestingly in Taylor is a 16% undecided vote and depending on how that breaks this seat is certainly still line-ball.

The big surprise to come in the last week is the SA Conservatives promising to preference Labor over Liberals in three seats in the Lower House in return for Labor preferencing the Conservative third on the Upper House how to vote card. This would seem weird on the face of it but the Conservatives have form in this area having preference harvested before in the Federal Senate under the Family First party which saw them suggest voters preference the Sex Party close to the top of their ticket in return for Sex Party voters doing the same with Family First. Some commentators have suggested that this move would help the Conservatives in their bid for the likely last Upper House spot in the Senate with most pundits saying Liberals will win 4, Labor 3 and SA Best 3 leaving the last spot between the Conservatives Rob Brokenshire and Greens leader Tammy Franks. I would have thought in most cases the fact that Labor are still suggesting voters put the Greens 2nd to the Conservatives would mean Labor votes would exhaust to the Greens before going to the Conservatives. This article that I am referencing in this paragraph is paywalled but can be found with this headline (9)


(1): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tasmanian_state_election,_2018

(2): https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/03/08/tasmanian-election-late-counting/

(3): http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/tas-election-2018//guide/brad/

(4): http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/tas-election-2018//guide/bass/

(5): http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/tas-election-2018//guide/deni/

(6): http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/tas-election-2018//guide/fran/

(7): http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/tas-election-2018//guide/lyon/

(8): https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/03/05/yougov-galaxy-sa-seat-polls-frome-florey-morphett/

(9): Election 2018: Labor in unusual preference deal with Australian Conservatives to save three MPs


Queensland Election Result Analysis and By Election Discussion

I have been holding off writing on the Queensland Election as it has only been the last few days that a Labor majority was confirmed. It always looked like the Labor Party would be the larger party however Premier Annastacia Palaszcuk muddied the waters by saying she would prefer to go into opposition than to make a deal with any minor parties. Now this has become a vogue statement for Parties to make as they try to paint themselves as a party that don’t do deals and rule for themselves while labelling their opponents as desperate to rule by any means possible. What this has allowed the Labor Party to do in both WA and now in the Queensland election is to point out the squeamishness of the Liberal Party on how to deal with the One Nation Party and whether there is an official preference deal. Now in both cases the Liberal Party did not make any official deal with One Nation however they did preference One Nation over the Labor Party in many seats which Labor called out as a deal even though their decision to accept Greens preferences is apparently all above board without any need to be criticised. Now Labor will argue that no deal is present but the numbers bear it out, 80 percent of Greens preferences go back to Labor, One Nation and a lot of other right of centre Independent parties are only going back 50-55 percent to the Liberal Party so the advantage of doing an official deal to shore up that preference split is a lot greater for the LNP than with the Labor Party who get the lion share of Greens votes back regardless.

The current state of play in the Queensland Election is as followed (1). So Labor have hit the 47 seat mark projection wise to the Liberal’s 38 seats, 1 for One Nation, 2 for Katter’s Australia and one Independent with four seats in doubt. Of the four seats in doubt the Liberal Party look set to win one of the seats and Townsville if they do better in postal votes, Katter’s Australia look set to win Hinchinbrook if the preferences flow to them being in second place at the final preference break and the Greens look like winning Maiwar assuming they increase their 4 vote lead over Labor in the remaining absentee votes for second place in which case the other party will preference them over the Liberal Party winning the seat. A good summary of the in doubt seats is found here (3). On the raw percentage numbers Labor would be happy to keep their net swing loss to 2 percent picking up seats in the metropolitan areas and limiting their vote loss in the rural regions. The Liberal Party had a rough night and while their seat loss was limited a swing of 7.6% against them is not a good result, they both lost votes to Labor in the metropolitan seats and then lost votes to One Nation in the rural seats. I think that really sums up my point above that the Liberal Party do have a difficult job right now, go too far to the right and they lose votes to Labor and the Greens but ignore their more conservative base and they can lose votes to One Nation where as I said they struggle to get preferences back afterwards. On to the One Nation Party many people say the result was disappointing and on a raw seats basis they would be right, I think most people thought they’d win 5-6 seats. However that ignores that they polled 13.7% of the vote statewide and that number jumped to (3) nearly 21 percent in seats they fought and 23 percent in rural areas. Now I’m not a fan of Pauline Hanson but you can’t ignore a party picking up over 1/5 of the state vote and it shows that this is not just about “deplorables” voting for a protest candidate because they are racist or insert insult here as some will commentate but there are economic issues that they have that they don’t feel the major parties are sorting out and so they turn to the minor parties. In previous elections that has been the Katter Party and Clive Palmer’s party. The other takeaway from the election is that the Greens continue to build a base in the Capital City and that would be a worry for the current Liberal Member for Brisbane looking at the next Federal Election.

Overall would I say I’m surprised by this result, no. I thought the Labor Party while being mediocre this term had not done anything warranting losing office after one term and their pivot to focus on the metropolitan area of Queensland where 2/3rd’s of the seats were was a smart political move as there were more seats to gain there than could be lost in other parts of Queensland. I think the problem for the Liberal leader Tim Nicholls was that as treasurer of the Campbell Newman Government that got so roundly whipped in 2015 he carried too much baggage to voters to throw out a government after 1 term and as a result it would not surprise me were he to be replaced as leader.

Onto the Federal scene the first of two by elections took place last night in New England where Barnaby Joyce was comfortably returned as member and will now resume his role as Deputy Prime Minister and Agriculture Minister. It was always assumed he would win his seat once Tony Windsor said he would not re-contest the 2016 match-up but (4) shows that Barnaby had a 12 percent swing to him which is unheard of for Governments in trouble and that worked out to a very impressive 7% 2PP swing to the Nationals. I think this result shows that the main risk to most country MP’s still come from Independents rather than the Labor Party as the Labor Party continue to pivot their policies in a more metropolitan setting and I would have been intrigued to see if there would have been a more split of the conservative vote had of One Nation or the Shooters and Fishers Party ran as they have caused issues for National MPs at recent election and indeed by elections with the famous Orange bloodbath where the Nationals suffered a 30 percent 2PP loss of vote to the Shooters Party member. I think the return of Barnaby Joyce will also add some discipline to a National Party that has gone somewhat rogue in the last few months with George Christiensen threatening to walk out of the party because of his perceived vision of poor leadership by Malcolm Turnbull (5) and the National’s push for a banking royal commission (6) that Malcolm Turnbull ultimately conceded was a political necessity this week to avoid the embarrassment of losing a vote on the floor of Parliament on the issue.

At this stage at least there is one other upcoming by election due to section 44 of the constitution (I believe that number may raise in coming months with a few Labor MPs and possibly Nick Xenophon Candidate Rebekah Sharkie as well as some Liberal MPs.). Now some Liberal Party MPs were quick to spin last night that Barnaby Joyce’s by election win last night would mean that John Alexander would also be ok in Bennelong. This is wishful thinking as it looks like in Kristina Keneally (7) Labor have a fierce contender who has name recognition as former Labor Premier of New South Wales and also John Alexander has had a difficult gaffe filled by election thus far. Polling (8) suggests that John Alexander has a slight lead over Kristina Keneally however from a 10 percent lead to start off with it is clear a swing is on in this seat and with the government anywhere from 53-47 to 55-45 behind in National Polls this is a dangerous election for the government to endure. Indeed in the last few weeks leadership chatter has begun regarding Malcolm Turnbull and while I think a leadership change now is pointless if John Alexander loses the By Election then it become a more serious conversation.



(1): http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2017/results/

(2): https://www.pollbludger.net/2017/12/02/queensland-election-live-week-two/

(3): https://twitter.com/AntonyGreenABC/status/934887456402325504

(4): http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/new-england-by-election-2017/results/

(5): http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/george-christensen-apologises-for-lying-over-threats-to-quit-the-lnp/news-story/bad67acbdbb962e21b0d39ac00af46da

(6): http://www.skynews.com.au/news/politics/federal/2017/11/17/push-for-banking-royal-commission.html

(7): http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-14/kristina-keneally-to-run-in-bennelong-by-election/9147640

(8): https://theconversation.com/bennelong-polls-galaxy-50-50-reachtel-53-47-to-liberal-87725



Election Update- A Snapshot of the Electoral state of play and a brief interlude on the Economy

If I was to have written about the last two weeks in Politics it would read as a repeat on any of my previous blogs on the SSM Postal Survey, the Constitution Issue, North Korea or the murky area of Asylum Seekers. I think however there is enough commentary on these issues already so I will instead focus on where we stand Electorally in the States and Federally as we are due for 6 elections in the next 18 months. As much as I’d like to talk in the coming paragraphs about the Economy will play a large role in the upcoming elections in these states that sadly is not where the focus is for a lot of media coverage in this Political climate. Now I think that is a pity, however a lot of the Economic conversations we have been having on both sides of the fence have been slogans and simplistic arguments that don’t account for the nuance that the Economy is.

An example of this was when we had the GST debate a few years ago. Those of the left side of Politics argued that GST is a regressive policy that impacts those who are less well off as by covering things like basic groceries it will be those with the tightest budget that end up being impacted most. This was considered by John Howard when he introduced the GST in 2000 (1) and he introduced income tax cuts and an increase in Family Benefits to offset the pain parents might feel at the shopping centres, this was similarly the likely approach that Malcolm Turnbull would have taken with any planned GST increase however the notion of the Liberal Party not being a taxing Government and the Labor Party ready to whack the Turnbull Government meant that this plan was quickly shelved. Now some pundits would say well why don’t we come up with more Economic Plans like this and my argument would be okay what do you say to the nervous backbencher who has to sell this plan to a seat they won by under 1 percent when they are being whacked by the other side of Politics.

Similarly the Liberal Party tend to attack those on Welfare as needing to get to work sooner as they can then start paying the Government more tax and it lowers the amount of welfare that Governments need to outlay on Welfare. This ignores a couple of points. Firstly that once on Welfare it becomes a lot more difficult on Welfare to then make the steps to get off Welfare, I.E how do you afford to service your car to get to that interview that is not reachable by public transport. Then you have a modified job market where work for dole might keep you in some form of work in the interim but try selling that as experience to a lot of potential employers and they will say it is negligible experience. Also and the biggest issue, people are finding work but in an environment where employers are cutting back budgets your four days of work might now be only 3, the full day of work might now be go home at lunch time instead and so you then have the equally worrying problem of underemployment. Indeed the Australian Bureau of Statistics as part of their Labour Force Survey (2) collect statistics on the underemployment numbers in Australia and there has been a definitive uptick in underemployment even as employment numbers have gradually improved post financial crisis. My comment on this would be that after the GFC in 2008 many employers moved to let go employees or if not that then lessened hours for their employees. This created a situation where the employers had a large amount of power over their workers and rightfully so at the time but I feel since that time that power balance has not returned to a more equilibrium state and the larger underemployment and the wages growth flatlining are at least in part a consequence of this. The Labor Party have taken these concerns on to run an effective attack on the Government pursuing policies that further inequality, an attack that many Socialist Parties across the world have been having success with. Now that’s all well and good but are we chasing some bad eggs and punishing the people who are making a dollar but doing it cleanly at the same time. Indeed I think (3) sums up the basic flaw that if you take away the aspirations of people to try and be more profitable and successful you limit productivity, people willing to try something new and that leads to reduced money for the Government to then put back into people’s services. It’s why the Scandinavian Countries have some of the more like Economic circumstances in that they embrace a full capitalist market of being as profitable in business as possible without government intervention however that extra money is then invested back into government services for those less off. That might sound nice in theory but again when I browse posts from people discussing these countries I still see many complaints about high taxes that people don’t want to embrace.

So with that interlude out of the way I will now briefly outline some predictions on the state of play of upcoming Election races in Chronological order of when an election will likely be held.


Queensland are due for an election by May next year however most pundits believe that Annastacia Palaszczuk will go to an early election late this year. This is due to what Labor believed at the time was a good move by reintroducing compulsory preferential voting (4) does not come into force until early next year. The wrinkle for the Labor Party was that One Nation did not appear to be the big force that they were then so the Labor Party were hoping that Greens voters just voting 1 would no longer exhaust and they’d pick up an extra vote. This is a more flawed proposition if it also means that One Nation votes are no longer exhausting and propping up Liberal votes. The current poll (5) has Labor up 51-49 which would probably see them stay in power however it assumes that One Nation Preferences split 50-50 and that’s a dangerous assumption in Queensland as Liberal party members have been less shy than their federal counterparts to embrace One Nation in order to hopefully pick up their preferences, I can see why in North Queensland particularly where Pauline Hanson is polling up to 30 percent in some seats. I also have to note that Labor Party last time reversed a 78 out of 89 seats won performance of the LNP to win 44 seats. My prediction at the moment is that the LNP are probably still not recognisable enough to win the election but that it will be close.

South Australia

I wrote extensively about the state of play in South Australia a few blog posts ago so there is not much to add. Probably the most important change is the arrest of the Mount Gambier Liberal MP for multiple theft and fraud charges. This is a big deal as in an election where the Liberal Party need to win seats to take office this seat now is very much in play for an independent or Nick Xenophon party member to take and given the seat was held by an independent from 2002 to 2014 the LNP would be rightly worried about that seat. I also give some kudos to the Labor Party for timing some of their big policies to be enacted in this 12 month stretch before the election. Now it’s a blatant vote grab in many people’s eyes but a new Royal Adelaide Hospital, new Power Generators, a battery to help store renewable energy and a new High School to be built on the grounds of the old RAH will appeal to many as they head to the polls in March next year.


Tasmania and ACT are weird regions election wise as they use the Hare Clarke voting system rather than the one used by the rest of the country. I think the easiest way to describe the electoral system is that they elect members to their lower house like the rest of the country elect senators. So for instance you might have five members to elect in an area so you need 20 percent vote to elect a member. So if we just limited ourselves in this example to three parties and say it’s the Liberals and Labor get 40 percent each and the Greens say got 20 percent then an allocation in this fictitious case would be 2 Labor, 2 Liberals and 1 Green member for the particular elector, repeat that for four regions say and you have 8 ALP, 8 LNP and 4 Greens. Seeing that split you immediately see the issue for the LNP to win Government under this system. Because 9 times out of 10 the Labor Party will go to the 4 Greens in that case and say hey want to be in government and rule with us and the answer sure, sign us up! So for the Liberals to win in this scenario they really need to run up the score to get a 3 or even 4th seat at an expense of a Labor or Green or both member. Tasmania voted like this example in the 2010 election except with five members elected in five districts. In the 2014 election (6) Will Hodgman was able to win 15 of the 25 seats. Worryingly for Hodgman the second Labor leadership change to Rebecca White appears to have lifted the support to the party to a level where the Liberal Party may drop their 3rd seat in enough areas to put them at risk of going into a hung parliament which would then most likely see the Greens back a minority Labor Government (7). The one good thing for the Liberals in the poll is that they are still favoured to run the economy which suggests the large debt that the Labor and Green Party gave the state has not been forgotten however the Liberal Party are coming off a Federal Election where they were wiped out in the Lower House of any Liberal members and that would be of concern to the Liberal Party.

Australian Federal Election

In a lot of my recent posts I have focussed a large amount of my time on the failings on both sides Policy wise however in terms of Electoral Prospects I think one graphic shows just how bad a shape the Liberal Party are in.


(8) shows that the Liberal Party are on track to be in the same position as the Labor Party were after the 2013 election. The wipeout of the LNP in Tasmania, NT and ACT and a near wipeout possibly for SA is a huge concern for the LNP, that takes away a lot of resources to improve your stocks in those states and that’s even more the case if all of these areas remain or become Labor States. Some might also wonder why I have listed this election to occur in 2018 when three years would take us to a 2019 poll however the senate half term expires July 2019 and so to avoid a seperate Senate half Election the Government would need to go to the polls before then. The Government would then want to avoid a poll that clashes with either Victoria or New South Wales and so that’s why a mid 2018 date is most likely.


Victoria in 2014 started the trend of States swinging Parties after only 1 term when the Liberal Party under Denis Napthine lost office to Dan Andrews. This was following a period of government that had seen the turmoil of trying to govern with a 1 seat majority that vanished with Geoff Shaw becoming embroiled in a scandal and then refusing to continue supporting the speaker. This effectively could have caused a constitutional crisis as not being able to elect a speaker of the house is one of the tests of a governments hold on power. However after the election Dennis Napthine was replaced by Matthew Guy and with Labor seeming to be waging war with many union organisations that should arguably be favourable to the Labor movement and with money being paid not to go ahead with building West Link the Labor Party had floundered. Matthew Guy had also opened up a good line on a Liberal Government being strong on Law and Order which was another perceived weakness of the Labor Party with some gang activity and unfortunate terror incidents. In the face of 2PP votes of 54 and 53 percent it was looking like we might see another one term government however Matthew Guy has recently had a massive brain fart. (9) uncovers a meeting held between Matthew Guy and alleged mafia boss Tony Madafferi having a Lobster dinner together to discuss the Madafferi family continuing to help fund the Liberal Parties tilt to win office. This has been a huge to Matthew Guy and puts a huge credibility hole in his efforts to be tough on crime. (10) shows that the Labor Party are in a much better shape in marginal seats since the Red Lobster scandal and it shows that the Liberal Party now have a lot more to do before the election in November next year.

New South Wales

Rewind to the 2015 New South Wales and despite Tony Abbott being a drain on the Liberal vote nationally people still were confident in the power of Mike Baird and his popularity would easily see him re elected to Parliament from the near Queensland sized Election landslide that Barry O’Farrell won in 2011. While pundits were right about Mike Baird winning the 2015 Election, fast forward two years and Mike Baird is completely out of Parliament having resigned for family reasons but certainly having the gloss shined off him. I think a lot of what happened to Mike Baird shows a lot of the issues of modern day Politics and how difficult it is to govern in this environment. His big issues that he had to deal with were Fracking, Greyhounds and Midnight lockout laws. Fracking is a contentious issue that I’m not expert enough to discuss here, however I can comment that both the Liberal Party and Labor Party under Luke Foley were broadly supportive of Fracking and the Labor Party had previously seen it’s merits as an economic measure to bring jobs to rural areas where employment has flatlined however Labor then reversed their policy position as Opposition to the policy would go down well in the Country. The Greyhound issue is another topic that the Labor Party flipped their position on but my criticism isn’t mainly levelled at them here. After a powerful 4 Corners Episode (11) on the harms of the Greyhound Racing Mike Baird reacting by banning Greyhound Racing. Now while the outrage from the Shooters and Fishers Party and people involved in the Greyhound industry were expected and strong there was not much praise from green groups for closing the industry. This culminated in the Nationals losing the State seat of Orange to the aforementioned Shooters and Fishers Party and then led to Mike Baird reversing the ban. This of course cued outrage from Greens groups on why he reversed his decision to which I argue well where was this passion when the original decision was made! Mike Baird was in a lose lose position. The last policy decision was the Lockout Laws and again for a city that had previously been known for Kings Cross and Gang Warfare I would have thought laws that lessened violence on Sydney Streets on Saturday Nights would be respected, again it wasn’t and again Mike Baird got a hit in the polls for actually trying to take a Political Decision. It’s hard to make policy decisions from Opposition and I would comment that if you want Politicians to make tough decisions then we need to let them have clean air to make these decisions without whacking them with a stick at the next election and changing to a party that promises us nice things!!!! With that backdrop Gladys Berejiklian is now the Premier of New South Wales and (12) shows that the Liberals are probably still in an election winning position albeit a much smaller one than they probably had hoped.


(1) http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-20/john-howard-introduces-the-gst-2000/5464730

(2) http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/6202.0main+features5Nov%202016

(3) https://www.boundless.com/business/textbooks/boundless-business-textbook/economics-and-business-2/businesses-under-communist-systems-31/the-disadvantages-of-communism-167-559/

(4) https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/government-wrong-foots-lnp-on-electoral-reform-20160421-goc3bs.html

(5) https://theconversation.com/queensland-galaxy-51-49-to-labor-but-palaszczuks-ratings-slump-82138

(6) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tasmanian_state_election,_2014

(7) http://www.themercury.com.au/news/politics/new-polling-reveals-labor-leader-rebecca-white-preferred-tasmanian-premier-over-will-hodgman/news-story/adadd43f1c58f9f22094b97397bda4e6

(8) https://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2017/08/26/bludgertrack-54-0-46-0-labor/

(9) http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-12/matthew-guy-survives-his-worst-week-as-opposition-leader/8799494

(10) https://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2017/08/13/reachtel-victorian-state-marginals-polling/

(11) http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/stories/2015/02/16/4178920.html

(12) https://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2017/04/07/newspoll-51-49-coalition-new-south-wales-2/

Section 44 – Otherwise known as the Australian Senator career destroyer

Yesterday with the resignation of Larissa Waters due to an negligent oversight of having dual citizenship of Canada; Section 44 of the Constitution claimed it’s 4th victim since the 2016 election and 2nd victim in the last week with the resignation of Scott Ludlum due to his dual citizenship of New Zealand. The loss of two highly respected and competent Greens senators in a week has seen for an overhaul of the section in the constitution by many in the public. Before I return to the specific cases of the senators who have been caught out by Section 44 of the Constitution it is worth looking at what the relevant section says.

(1) essentially states that to stand for parliament a Senator has to ensure they don’t do any of the following:
(i) Have dual citizenship or no citizenship of Australia and that where dual citizenship is present they do not make sufficient efforts to renounce their citizenship to a foreign allegiance.

(ii) That the member of parliament has committed treason or if you are current serving time for a criminal offence or are in the middle of criminal proceedings that is longer than one year in length.

(iii) Is currently bankrupt or insolvent

(iv) Is currently working and making a profit from the crown (i.e working in the public service).

(v) That the Parliamentarian is making a monetary arrangement in a Public Service of the Commonwealth of Australia, so for example in (2) Dr Gillespie has faced questions about his eligibility due to the fact that he leased out one of his owned businesses to Australia Post which is a Government owned entity.

So the first element of section 44 of the constitution is what has caused the resignation of Scott Ludlum and Larissa Waters. The reasoning for this part of the constitution is that it is a conflict of interest whether real or perceived to be voting on laws that are passing into land while also having citizenship of another nation. A fictitious example of this would be say we wanted to impose a tariff on the importation of lamb to New Zealand then it could be a conflict of interest to someone who still holds dual citizenship of New Zealand to be debating such a law. I also think that due to the public scrutiny that an elected member of parliament holds any perceived issues of conflict are as bad as if an actual conflict did exist.

Bob Day’s case which interestingly did not receive the same outrage for his removal from the Senate came under two sections of the constitution. Before (3) became an extra constitutional issue Bob Day had already resigned from the senate because of having to claim bankruptcy. However it was later discovered that Bob Day had been leased a building for his electoral office that was already privately owned which is in clear breach of line (v) of section 44 of the Constitution.

Rod Culleton one of the 4 One Nation Senators elected also fell foul of section 44 of the Constitution and his case again did not receive the same outrage that was levelled to the Greens Senators. Again (4) shows that Rod Culleton lost his seat in the senate due to two elements of section 44, firstly he was facing charges of larceny which carried a penalty of over 1 year penalty. He also was declared to be bankrupt when he failed to pay back an outstanding loan.

Line (iv) of the section is something that has not recently been tested. However in 1993 (5) Phil Cleary was ruled ineligible to stand in the by election of Wills which was caused by the retirement of Bob Hawke. Phil won the by election as an independent however because he was public school teacher at the time he was technically a paid member of the crown and therefore was ineligible, this is despite him being on unpaid leave at the time. This could trip up a number of potential parliamentarians although this part of the constitution has been worked around by public servants being allowed to quit their jobs, stand for election and if unsuccessful then be able to automatically reenter their jobs upon the completion of the election.

There are a few added points for me to make on this constitution given the public reaction to the Greens resignations. A lot of people have called for section 44(i) to be scrapped in the wake of the resignations, the biggest issue with that is that because it is part of the Australian Constitution then to change the section we would need a referendum. This of course brings a hefty cost of running the referendum as well as any advertising delegated to prosecuting the cases of a yes or no vote for the question. I have also seen a lot of fingers pointed at relevant Labor or Liberal members who were born overseas by the same people who are upset at the resignations of Scott Ludlum and Larissa Waters, the most noted example being Tony Abbott. I think that is hypocritical and points out that one of the big differences between major parties and smaller parties is that the major parties do a much better job of vetting potential candidates for potential issues that could preclude eligibility of election in comparison to smaller parties. There has also been questions raised as to whether votes taken by members should be excluded and if salary paid to the senator should be repaid. (6) which is another excellent post by the Psephologist Yoda Antony Green points out that the high court has previously ruled that votes taken by ineligible members can not be retrospectively discounted and that the practice of the government is not to push for salary to be chased from ineligible members. The reason for this I suspect is self preservation in that if you chase one senator for returned salary you open the pandoras box of having that come back to bite you if one of your pack are found to be ineligible. I think my last point would be that the Greens are facing some real issues at the moment. Now a lot of the attention has been on the infighting between Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull, however if the Greens were a major party they’d be getting the coverage of a party in crisis. They have now lost two deputy leaders and senators in a week and have a member in Lee Rhiannon who has been excluded from attending contentious party room discussions. This same senator has responded by pulling on her state branch pushing back against that decision and by her calling the current leader a real disappointment. Now the two senators who will replace Ludlum and Waters will still be.Greens members due to the recount of the senate ballots flowing their votes onto the next eligible Greens ticket member but to lose roughly 15 years of parliamentary experience in a group of 10 senators/MPS is a real loss!



(1) http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/Publications_Archive/archive/Section44

(2) http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-07/opposition-intensifies-campaign-against-david-gillespie/8423600

(3) http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-05/family-first-bob-day-election-ruled-invalid-by-high-court/8417204

(4)  http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/rod-culleton-ineligible-to-be-elected-to-senate-high-court-rules/news-story/7eae79c15f652c2d3673c20c11d08c00

(5) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phil_Cleary

(6) http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2017/07/scott-ludlam-resigns-what-happens-to-his-senate-seat.html#more