It has been another very busy week in International Politics, and it has been a hectic 24 hours in UK Politics where Rishi Sunak’s leadership was in real peril and while he ended up winning the battle last night, few believe he will ultimately win the war, both within his party and with the broader General Electorate. In USA Politics it has been another busy week, again I watched the 4th Republican Debate (so you didn’t have to) it was an attack the hell out of Nikki Haley night with both Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy really going after Nikki Haley, meanwhile Trump is in the spotlight again (when isn’t he) and the Special Council Prosecution chiefs made a push to see with the Supreme Court if Trump could actually claim immunity or not from his legal woes. This is huge, because if he can’t claim immunity then he will have to face the full force of the legal law and from a quicker point of view too, one that may see some cases wrap up before Americans head to the polls next November. Meanwhile the Focus in the USA is on the Iowa Caucus of Republican voters which is now under 6 weeks away, Ron DeSantis finished his whirlwind tour of all Iowa spots and that was enough to solidify ever so slightly his distant second in Iowa to Donald Trump, who is now over 50% in Iowa Polling a marked improvement. Lastly, in Australian Politics there was some truly sad news last week as the Labor member for Dunkley Peta Murphy lost her battle to Breast Cancer. This is sad news because by all reports Peta Murphy was a much loved and respected member of Parliament who was respected for her hard work across the aisle, a rare feat for Politicians. It now sets up an interesting early 2024 By-Election Test in Dunkley where Labor hold the seat comfortably now but it has been Liberal held in the past making it an interesting test for a Labor Government that had some challenges to end 2023. In this blog I will start with UK Politics, move onto USA Politics and then finish with Australian Politics.
So it’s been a whirlwind 24 hours in UK Politics. Rishi Sunak at one stage was looking like he might not see out the UK Day as PM, as he had a potential revolt on his hands on the Rwanda Immigration Bill. Just to backtrack for a minute the Rwanda Immigration Bill is the latest in a line of policies from the UK to try and curb rising Migration and particularly to curb the issue of people arriving “illegally” by boat. The Rwanda Solution was seen as a Political fix to the issue that was plaguing the Government and all looked to be smooth sailing on the issue until Suella Braverman was sacked by the PM Rishi Sunak who then gave a blistering blindside on the issue and other woke policies in a nasty letter on her way out as Minister. That was the warning bells that things might not be smooth sailing on the bill but things really hit the fan when Immigration Minister Rob Jenrick resigned late last week with him saying the Rwanda Immigration Bill was too weak and wouldn’t solve the problem. That led to a splintering on the issue in the Party as Far Right Conservatives threatened to abstain or even worse cross the floor and vote against the Bill. That looked like being a real prospect as late as early yesterday morning UK Time when the Tory Prime Minister called in some of the most vocal opponents of the bill for a breakfast kiss and make up. It worked because the Bill ended up passing the Parliament with only just shy of 30 abstainees and no-one crossing the floor on the vote. Now comes the fun part and while Rishi Sunak has won the first battle there’s real doubts he will win the war. In getting the bill to pass the Parliament Sunak has had to promise amendments to the bill in its committee stage in order to get the far rights supports and that basically means he has said he is open to tightening the bill to make it harsher. That could be a bigger problem for Sunak, as there’s another faction of the Party who have problems with the bill. Those are the more moderate and in most cases more senior members in terms of experience in Parliament Politicians. They think the bill already goes too far, and although they don’t want too see a huge political loss for the PM, they are already warning that if this bill goes further to the right and further puts the UK in danger of breaking their conventions with International Law then their support may no longer be there. If this sounds remarkably like the issue of Brexit again, then you aren’t mistaken, this is a huge problem for the Tories and threatens to tear apart a party that is already gashing at the knees. In terms of the Polling we haven’t seen any recent polls since this farcical vote situation but the Tories were trailing Labour in most polls by an average of the late teens to early 20% points.
Now onto USA Politics and as I said earlier the Fourth Republican Primary Debate was held last week, again without the talents of Former President Donald Trump. The Debate turned into a slanging match, with both Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy hammering Nikki Haley which meant that she was on the defensive for much of the debate which I don’t think looked as strong for her. The moment of the night was when Vivek Ramaswamy held up a Nikki=Corrupt sign and when Nikki Haley was asked if she had a response to all that, she said she wasn’t going to justify that with a response. The other moment that stuck to my mind was the Donald Trump electability question and after Ron DeSantis politefully didn’t answer the question Chris Christie attacked him for not answering the question which led to Vivek Ramaswamy attacking Chris Christie saying he should get off the stage and go eat something, because he had no relevance in the party. While fat shaming a candidate is not ok, I do think Vivek has a point, insofar as Chris Christie isn’t a relevant force in the modern Republican Party that is beholden to Donald Trump. Nikki Haley by showing she was not going to go low when her opponents went low probably won the debate by the analysts books as she looked the most presidential, from a voters point of view though it probably came across as looking weak and that probably wont help her numbers. Indeed the polls released in Iowa straight after the debate have shown a small regression in Haley’s numbers with DeSantis holding a clearer second place lead. The good news for DeSantis in the race for Second ends there though as Haley holds a clear lead over DeSantis in New Hampshire and South Carolina albeit still around 30% points below the numbers of Donald Trump. On Donald Trump its been another busy week for him as Trump again caused a stir with public comments that he would be a “Dictator” on day one of his second term. Now the joke was clearly a throw away line on a friendly Interview but it confirmed the worst fears of the left of how he may act in his second term. The last few days also saw the Special Counsel try and lodge the Supreme Court as to whether Trump had Immunity as Former President in terms of his criminal charges as Trump seeks to delay his legal woes until after the election when he can get his attorney general to drop all Federal Charges against him. This is a huge decision that will say a lot about where the Supreme Court is at in the USA because obviously not only is there a Conservative lean on the Benches currently but three of those appointees were nominated under Donald Trump. In terms of the latest National Polling Donald Trump continues to hold a slender but not insignificant lead over the Current President Joe Biden and that lead is wider in some of the key battleground states.
Lastly, to Australian Politics and we had some sad news this last week as I said with the Passing of well liked and respected colleague Peta Murphy. That leaves a necessary By-Election in the seat of Dunkley in 2024, most likely I’d guess in March-April. This is on current margins a safe Labor seat held by 6.2% by the Labor Party. That however hides the fact that the Liberals won this seat from 1996-2019 and that even when won by the Labor Party in 2019 it was by a slim margin. The 2022 Result can be largely seen as a major endorsement of the Labor Member Peta Murphy and a repudiation of Brand Morrison in 2022. With Peta Murphy no longer there and Scott Morrison no longer leader it will be interesting to see if the Liberals can gain some traction to perform better in Victoria. That obviously wasn’t the case with Aston where the Libs lost that seat shortly into Anthony Albanese’s first term of Government but the Government back then were riding high on an extended honeymoon which post the Voice to Parliament and with cost of living still on the minds of most voters will be an intriguing test for the Labor Party. Despite this my first guess is that this is still a Labor hold for two reasons, firstly by-elections caused by the death of a popular member generally result in Sympathy to the Party holding the seat because they can see that this wasn’t a forced by-election, secondly its Brand Liberal in Victoria and that’s still a massive problem.
Thanks for reading my blog, stay tuned next week when I sum up the recent resignation of Anastasia Palaszczuck the Queensland Premier and the election of her successor Stephen Miles.
Political Musings from the Man Down Under 