It has been a quiet few weeks in Politics as people take a pause over the Christmas and New Years break. It is now the 11th of January and Politics is starting to ramp up again, firstly there’s US Politics where the Iowa Caucus Primary is now just a few days away and in breaking news Chris Christie has suspended his Campaign, which is not entirely surprising in the sense of he is polling under water and he does not fit in the modern Republican Party but I did think despite that, that he would stay in the race to bite at Trump’s heels a bit longer seeing as none of the other candidates had the gall to do that directly. The interesting thing now is where will that vote go and my thought is that most of Chris Christie’s vote will go to Nikki Haley and that may become useful in New Hampshire where Trump’s lead is now in some polls in single digits which would be small enough that Chris Christie’s 11% could shift the lead there to Nikki Haley. Then there’s the Southern Isle of Australia and Tasmania is keeping things very interesting, over the Christmas New Years period you had one of the Liberal turned Independent MP’s threaten to support a no confidence motion and then in the first poll of the year for Tasmania you had Liberal go backwards 17% from the election but that vote was not going to Labor but instead to the Jacqui Lambie Network who were on 20!!! percent. Now onto my main blog and I will first talk about USA Politics before moving into the Tasmanian Politics.
So, we are now just 5 days away American time from the first Iowa Primary for the Presidential race for the Republican nominee. Donald Trump leads this race by a large percentage polling well over 50% to the 17.2% for Ron DeSantis and 16.8% for Nikki Haley. The battle in Iowa is for second place as I can’t see a realistic scenario where Trump is defeated in Iowa. That race for second is critical though because that gap between DeSantis and Haley has really narrowed to the point where a second place for Haley in Iowa which she has not prioritised to the same level as DeSantis who has visited every section of Iowa would be I think terminal for the DeSantis campaign. That job for DeSantis finishing second in any state was made harder I think this morning by the news of Chris Christie suspending his presidential campaign. Now I think almost all of his vote will go to the next most anti-Trump candidate which is clearly Nikki Haley. Now Chris Christie knew he wouldn’t win, his place in the race was always to try and drag Trump down and he in my mind has now made the calculation that he is better off dropping out of the race, coalescing his vote to the next best option which I think he believes is Nikki Haley and then continuing to snipe at Trump from the sidelines. Now as I said I don’t think it helps defeat Trump in Iowa, I think the 34% gap in Iowa is too much of a bridge to climb in Iowa but there was a poll in New Hampshire the other day that had Trump at 38% Haley at 31% and Christie about 13% which if his vote mostly goes to Haley as I suspect it will would mean Haley could win New Hampshire and give herself some momentum too chase Trump for the rest of the Republican Primary. I think to me the one clear thing of the last few months of campaigning is that DeSantis’s campaign is now at a near terminal point, which given only last summer there were moments that DeSantis was leading Trump in the polls is quite the slippage. I still think Trump wins the Republican Nomination and even losing New Hampshire is not the end of the world because if it is that close there but Trump is nationally leading Haley by about 48% then there’s other states where Trump has even bigger than 48% of a lead. I think the DeSantis dropping out of the race actually favours Trump more so than Haley as DeSantis more aligns with Trump’s world views than Haley’s. I think the attention for most people is gradually starting to shift to the National Race and the early polls of the year show a Tie between Trump and Biden with both on 42-43% each. The story of the race though is in the swing states and in those Trump continues to hold a stubbornly non insignificant lead. The question that continues to stubbornly hold is will these two (Biden and Trump) be the nominees that face the Electorate in November. I think the significant odds are that they are but there’s a non zero chance that something happens in either camp that stops that from happening. For Trump it continues to be his legal woes and again during the Christmas-New Years Break Trump was disqualified by the Maine State from appearing on their presidential ballot under the Insurrection amendment. Now the Supreme Court have now said they will hear that case very shortly and I know a lot of traditional media sources were like ooooh this might spell trouble for Trump but I’m not convinced of that and nor is Trump who said that was a good thing and it would clear him from the legal witch hunt that the Democrats were apparently running against him. Now I believe as a Democratic Talking Head said the other day that you can’t get rid of Trump on a legal technicality but you have to get rid of him at the ballot box. I think the more interesting question surrounds Joe Biden and he has always had the age question hanging around, this week there was more speculation that he might drop out of the race, citing poor health and age as a reason, I don’t think that will happen as Biden in his mind believes he is the only Democrat who can beat Trump but if the polls worsen and Biden’s Approval rating stays at around -20 maybe he does drop out and drafts a replacement of his choosing to take down Trump, Ala someone like Gavin Newsom.
Now onto Tasmanian Politics and a lot is happening in Tassie right now. As I alluded to above over the holiday period John Tucker said that unless the Government took urgent action over the Live Trade Export Industry and unless it took urgent action over the AFL Stadium issue that he would support a No Confidence Motion in the Government. This is a continuing saga for the Liberal Party which is split between the Moderates which is led by the current leader Jeremy Rockliffe and then the Conservatives which are split into two factions, the Eric Abetz Faction and the Johnathon Dunheim faction and all of these sides hate each other with much gusto. Indeed speaking on Eric Abetz for a minute he is now trying to seek preselection for the State region of Franklin at the next Election which will be intriguing given his outspokenness on social issues particularly. He said that it was unfair that he was demoted from the Federal Senate and that he was cast aside for being a white old man…. for a party known as having far too many old white men in it I thought that was just a tad odd. So with all this being said you’d think the Liberals would be in dire straits and that Labor would be waltzing into power but you’d be wrong. Labor in the latest poll which shocked political pundits continue to trail the Liberals 31% to 27% and the Jacqui Lambie Network is the big winners at an amazing 20%!. The Greens meanwhile are at 15%. I have a few comments on this poll, firstly it shows the Liberals have nosedived since the last state election which given their internal nightmares is not surprising, it also shows that Labor have not picked up on that nightmarish internal problem which is an inditement on the once most powerful state in the land for Labor. The Jacqui Lambie vote is almost hard to believe and I will say I am sceptical it will pick up that vote at an actual election in the lower house when the Jacqui Lambie Network Candidates will not be Jacqui Lambie. As Dr Kevin Bonham said this is a trend for disaffected voters to park their vote with a third party in an election mid cycle before returning home to the majors at the election itself, be that SA Best in SA or One Nation in Queensland. I do think on current numbers Labor would probably win a minority government, but if it is with 5,6 Greens and 7 Jacqui Lambie MPs on the Crossbench, that would be messy. One thing to note about Tasmanian Politics before I finish up is that the Liberal Government recently passed legislation to reinstall the Parliament to 35 seats rather than the current 25 seats, so basically 7MPs per region rather than the current 5MPs per region.
Thanks for reading my blog, stay tuned for my next blog next week summing up the Iowa Primary in the US and maybe an update on where we stand Federally in Australian Politics too.
Political Musings from the Man Down Under 